Those are the current odds that sportsbooks are putting on Gary Lockett upsetting Kelly Pavlik this Saturday. 10-to-1. That's nearly twice the odds that Carlos Quintana was given against Paul Williams in February.

Kevin Iole did an article today on Lockett being essentially the same as Pavlik last year, which I think is rather dubious.

In May 2007, Pavlik was set to fight the hard-punching and hard-talking Edison Miranda, whose concussive punching power and colorful trash talk had made him a favorite among television executives.

Pavlik was overlooked so frequently by so many that Arum went on a memorable tirade against HBO at the pre-fight press conference last year in Memphis, Tenn.

Iole thinks that media ignored Pavlik leading up to the Miranda bout. I recall a number of people thinking Pavlik certainly had a fine chance; I remember most favoring Miranda, but Pavlik was not the 'dog that Lockett is this Saturday. And it wasn't close, really.

Miranda was popular and everyone knew his power, but when has Miranda ever proven to be as good as Pavlik now looks, coming off of that thrashing of Edison and two wins over Jermain Taylor? When did Edison Miranda ever have a stretch like that?

Sure, Kelly was the underdog against Miranda, but not like Lockett is the underdog against Pavlik.

In all fairness to Lockett, though, who saw Baldomir over Judah coming? I think that's more the class of underdog story we're dealing with here. A mandatory that seems like a walkover fight en route to something bigger and better; Zab was looking down the road at Floyd, and Pavlik's camp is already talking Calzaghe in November.

I never say never about any fight, but if Lockett beat Pavlik, it would be nigh impossible for a bigger upset to happen this year.