Money Talks: Margarito-Mosley

by SC on Jan 23, 2009 2:16 PM EST in Etc. Comment 7 comments

As always, odds are taken from the book at Bodog.

Also: I wanted to put up an older Mosley fight in preparation for Margarito, but I couldn't think of one that was even sort of comparable, especially one recent enough that we'd be seeing the Shane Mosley of today as opposed to the Mosley of yesteryear.

It then occured to me, very plainly, that Shane has never fought or beaten a guy who is like Margarito that's as good as Margarito.

Oscar de la Hoya was tall like Margarito, but they're not similar fighters. Miguel Cotto is rugged like Margarito, but doesn't have the size. Fernando Vargas and Ricardo Mayorga aren't really in the discussion. Luis Collazo is a tricky defensive stylist. There's just no one in the last few years of Shane's career that stacks up as the challenge that Margarito is. It's a tough, tough fight for Shane.

Now, the odds:

Margarito -400

Mosley +275

Shane Mosley at +275 is the type of bet that I think I'd love if I was a man with a lot of disposable money, because while Shane's got a real task on his hands with Margarito, it's overstating it to say that Antonio Margarito is the best fighter Shane's ever faced. The last time we saw Shane at 147 pounds, he gave Miguel Cotto all he could handle. That was 14 months ago. And while Margarito not being "the best" Shane's ever fought doesn't mean Margarito isn't one of them or doesn't present unique obstacles, it means a little something.

Mosley at this age might not be the best fighter Antonio's ever faced, either. Cotto was still unbeaten, Williams was unbeaten, Clottey was a really underrated guy at the time (and is still underrated).

My poinit is really more that Antonio Margarito: Machine Man is beatable. He's slow, he doesn't have one-punch power, his footwork isn't very good. His strengths are great, but he has weaknesses. And Mosley might be the right guy to exploit them.

Still, Margarito at -400 looks like a good bet. It's been a while since Shane has beaten an elite fighter, the last one probably being Oscar in 2003.

Anyone betting?

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Toni, by stoppage. 6/4

How do you write that the way you write odds on here? +50? or +150? something like that?

Does the fact a boxer doesn't switch weight divisions during their career detract from their overall P4P ranking?

Cos I'd take Hagler over most heavies in history, P4P, and also over "6 weight world champion" Oscar De La Hoya, and Marvellous Marvin never really messed about with his weight, did he?

by Chaos100 on Jan 23, 2009 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I closed my Bodog account

But I wouldn’t put anything on those odds. If Mosley was +350 like I’ve seen on some UK sportsbooks, then I’d consider it. I think he’s a live underdog, but I still suspect he’ll lose. People are probably reading too much into his performance against Mayorga though. Mosley has always been more lethargic and had a much lower workrate at 154. He’s just a much better fighter at 147. I just don’t think he’ll fight smartly enough to win though. If he can execute Cotto’s gameplan, he might have a chance – if Cotto didn’t get hurt by Margo and then KDed, he would have won the fight if it had gone to the cards (I had him winning 7 rounds already at the point he lost, though Margarito had all the momentum).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 23, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree Brick. Mosley for the majority of his career was a lightweight and in my opinion should never have fought above welterweight but had to in order to land big fights. You can’t put too much stock in his performance vs Mayorga at 154. He just isn’t a world class fighter at that weight. At welterweight, he is a damn respectable fighter who commands for you to bring your A game.

by Zocalo on Jan 23, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs