CompuBox: Inside the Lopez-Mtagwa FotY Contender
by Scott Christ on Oct 11, 2009 12:28 AM EDT
in Boxing Results and Post-Fight Analysis
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PrintBad Left Hook: The numbers below don't tell the whole story, but they do paint the Juan Manuel Lopez win. However you can see just by the numbers how big of an attack JML was under in the final two rounds against Rogers Mtagwa. Most intriguing is the total lack of jabbing in this fight: Only 30 landed for Lopez, to 19 for Mtagwa. A stiff, consistent jab from Lopez could have made this a much easier night for him, as it may have kept the determined, bull-rushing Mtagwa at bay instead of constantly in his grill.
Total Punches Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Lopez | 19/39 | 33/66 | 41/85 | 28/57 | 22/67 | 22/60 | 20/65 | 42/95 | 32/59 | 32/67 | 27/82 | 9/94 |
| 49% | 50% | 48% | 49% | 33% | 37% | 31% | 44% | 54% | 48% | 33% | 10% | |
| Mtagwa | 3/29 | 13/37 | 16/58 | 13/39 | 14/47 | 9/43 | 22/49 | 23/64 | 14/47 | 26/61 | 27/53 | 36/79 |
| 10% | 35% | 28% | 33% | 30% | 21% | 45% | 36% | 30% | 43% | 51% | 46% |
Jabs Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Lopez | 1/4 | 4/8 | 6/12 | 1/9 | 1/8 | 7/14 | 2/11 | 3/7 | 0/3 | 3/6 | 0/6 | 2/16 |
| 25% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 12% | 50% | 18% | 43% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 12% | |
| Mtagwa | 0/18 | 0/12 | 2/20 | 4/17 | 4/21 | 1/16 | 3/15 | 2/11 | 0/10 | 2/11 | 1/6 | 0/9 |
| 0% | 0% | 10% | 24% | 19% | 6% | 20% | 18% | 0% | 18% | 17% | 0% |
Power Punches Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Lopez | 18/35 | 29/58 | 35/73 | 27/48 | 21/59 | 15/46 | 18/54 | 39/88 | 32/56 | 29/61 | 27/76 | 7/78 |
| 51% | 50% | 48% | 56% | 36% | 33% | 33% | 44% | 57% | 48% | 36% | 9% | |
| Mtagwa | 3/11 | 13/25 | 14/38 | 9/22 | 10/26 | 8/27 | 19/34 | 21/53 | 14/37 | 24/50 | 26/47 | 36/70 |
| 27% | 52% | 37% | 41% | 38% | 30% | 56% | 40% | 38% | 48% | 55% | 51% |
Final PunchStat Report
|
|
Total Punches | Jabs | Power Punches |
| Lopez | 327 / 836 | 30 / 104 | 297 / 732 |
| 39% | 29% | 41% | |
| Mtagwa | 216 / 606 | 19 / 166 | 197 / 440 |
| 36% | 11% | 45% |
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FotY
The Sweet Science has an article by Michael Woods already calling this the fight of the year. They agree with the decision but also say that they want to see a rematch, even when they admit that it makes no sense business-wise and will never happen. Interestingly, Woods also calls on Top Rank to release the replay to showtime or HBO or even Youtube, because the fight was so good. I don’t know how likely that will be since people could potentially see this as not shining the best possible light on Juanma. Anyways here’s to hoping for a good replay very soon!
The 45% connect rate is concerning for Lopez… I honestly don’t know much about Mtagwa but that seems like an absurd percent of connects for someone who was supposed to be an opponent.
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
Lopez seemed to feel confident dropping his hands and warring, and he had to learn that as strong as he is, Mtagwa can take his shots.
Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes
by Scott Christ on Oct 11, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
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