CompuBox: Lopez too young, skilled for Mtagwa

Editor's Note: This preview was put together by the CompuBox staff, and was not written by anyone at Bad Left Hook. For our preview of Saturday night's Top Rank PPV, go here.

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So far WBO super bantamweight champion Juan Manuel Lopez has been nothing short of sensational. The 26-year-old has shown speed, savvy and sock as he defeats steadily improving competition. This Saturday his evolution continues as he defends against Rogers Mtagwa, a tough Tanzanian who never stops coming. Will talent win out over tenacity? The numbers may offer a clue.

Pumping Up the Volume: Juan Manuel Lopez's first three title fights offered few glimpses as he scored first round blowouts of Daniel Ponce de Leon, Cesar Figueroa and Sergio Medina. But his two most recent bouts against Gerry Penalosa and Olivier Lontchi offered a more complete examination. Not only is Lopez powerful and technically sound, he can roll up numbers that sap spirits.

Penalosa's almost inhuman toughness allowed Lopez to shine offensively and to smash three CompuBox records for junior featherweights - power punch connects (421) and power punches thrown and connected during a round (129 and 84 in round eight, breaking his own marks of 123 and 71 set two rounds earlier). Lopez was on pace to challenge the all-time record for punches landed in a 12-round fight - 637 by Cecilio Espino against Luigi Camputaro in January 1992.

Lopez landed 444 of 1,020 (44 percent) to Penalosa's 99 of 392 (25 percent), meaning JuanMa landed 52 more punches than Penalosa threw and averaged 113.3 blows per round, nearly double the divisional average of 60.6. He topped 100 punches seven times (including each of the last five rounds) and exceeded 100 power punches three times (in the fifth, sixth and eighth rounds). Lopez surpassed 50 total connects and 40 power punch connects in the final five rounds, where he out-landed Penalosa 319-56 overall and 306-44 in power shots.

The numbers against Lontchi didn't match those in the Penalosa fight but the result was the same - a ninth round corner retirement. Lopez out-landed Lontchi 244-84 overall and 211-65 in power punches, mostly because his heft discouraged Lontchi from duplicating the champ's output. Lopez out-threw his rival 592-271 overall and 484-153 in power shots. To win, Mtagwa must fight the temptation to slow down despite mounting punishment.

True Grit: Mtagwa may not have a sparkling record (26-12-2, 18 KO) but his toughness is worthy of his adopted hometown of Philadelphia. In his rematch with Aldo Valtierra the numbers were tight (Mtagwa led 172-171 in total connects and 42-37 in landed jabs while Valtierra led 134-130 in landed power shots) but Mtagwa's aggression and superior firepower allowed him to win the decision. But it was his classic war with Tomas Villa that earned him this crack. Mtagwa overcame a ninth round knockdown to record three of his own in the 10th. They combined for 1,630 punches (905 Villa to 725 Mtagwa), 679 connects (342-335 for Villa) and 544 power connects (283-261 Villa). Mtagwa will need every bit of that resilience to upend Lopez.

Prediction: Young, skilled and eager almost always trumps everything else but it'll be fun while it lasts. Lopez TKO 9