The CompuBox editors take a look at Saturday night's rematch between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade. HBO will televise the fight from Quebec City.
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Controversy creates cash. Nothing stirs interest more than conflict beyond normal bounds and Saturday's rematch between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade is proof. The final moments of their initial encounter ignited fervent interest in re-staging a fight that Bute dominated for long stretches. Will the rematch be a repeat or a re-write? Here's what the number say:
Act One: Bute landed more (200-175) despite throwing less (617-673). In the nine rounds Bute prevailed numerically he had 6.7 more connects per round and he posted double-digit edges in rounds two (20-4), seven (23-12) and 10 (26-14). As expected Bute dominated in jabs (62 of 297 to 15 of 139) but held his own in power shots (138 of 320 to 160 of 534). By emphasizing his strengths and neutralizing Andrade's for a long enough period, he piled up enough points to keep his crown once the final bell rang.
Pump up the Volume: Super middleweights typically throw 55 punches per round and each man occupies different ends of the spectrum. Bute averaged 37 per round against Berrio, 49 against Bika 48 against Zuniga and 51 against Andrade. Meanwhile Andrade averaged 77 against Kessler, 72 against Grant, 75 against Stieglitz and 68 against Tsypko but just 56 against Bute.
Whenever Andrade moved his hands, he scored big. In the rounds where Andrade trailed in connects he was out-thrown 54-52 per round but in rounds where Andrade connected more he averaged 67 to Bute's 42. Andrade's greatest success was achieved when the volume differences were widest as in rounds five and 12 he out-threw Bute by 32 and 54 respectively. Therefore, Andrade must push the pace so Bute focuses more on defense while Bute must slow the tempo so he can control Andrade while marshaling his energy.
Recent Form: Each has fought once since Bute-Andrade I. Bute stopped Zuniga in four, out-landing him 68-41 overall and 53-25 in power shots. Andrade earned the rematch by decisioning Tsypko decisively, both on the cards and in the numbers - 291-162 in total connects and 264-110 in power connects. Both carried out principles that will benefit them Saturday; Bute was more flat-footed yet still controlled the distance while Andrade beat Tsypko - who like Bute is a southpaw - by maintaining a high work rate and pounding the body. Speaking of which...
Rib Tenderizers: Bute's body should be a target for Andrade. Fifty-two of Andrade's 160 power connects against Bute were body shots and against Tsypko he landed 94. Also, whatever limited success Zuniga enjoyed was to Bute's body as 22 of his 25 power connects - 88 percent - were targeted there.
Bute, in turn, doesn't ignore the body as 47 of his 119 power connects against Bika were body shots. A rippling left to the stomach floored Zuniga early in the fourth and several more hastened his demise.
Prediction: Bute has the tools to dominate, especially when both are fresh. All Bute needs to do is shore up his stamina. Add home field advantage to the equation and it adds up to a decisive decision victory.
For fight stats from Bute-Andrade I, take the jump.
Total Punches Landed / Thrown
Jabs Landed / Thrown
Power Punches Landed / Thrown
Final PunchStat Report
Punches Landed / Thrown
|Total Punches||Jabs||Power Punches|
|Bute||200 / 617||62 / 297||138 / 320|
|Andrade||175 / 673||15 / 139||160 / 534|