CompuBox Preview: The Lucian Bute-Librado Andrade Rematch
by SC on Nov 24, 2009 2:04 PM EST
in Fight Previews
22 comments
The CompuBox editors take a look at Saturday night's rematch between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade. HBO will televise the fight from Quebec City.
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Controversy creates cash. Nothing stirs interest more than conflict beyond normal bounds and Saturday's rematch between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade is proof. The final moments of their initial encounter ignited fervent interest in re-staging a fight that Bute dominated for long stretches. Will the rematch be a repeat or a re-write? Here's what the number say:
Act One: Bute landed more (200-175) despite throwing less (617-673). In the nine rounds Bute prevailed numerically he had 6.7 more connects per round and he posted double-digit edges in rounds two (20-4), seven (23-12) and 10 (26-14). As expected Bute dominated in jabs (62 of 297 to 15 of 139) but held his own in power shots (138 of 320 to 160 of 534). By emphasizing his strengths and neutralizing Andrade's for a long enough period, he piled up enough points to keep his crown once the final bell rang.
Pump up the Volume: Super middleweights typically throw 55 punches per round and each man occupies different ends of the spectrum. Bute averaged 37 per round against Berrio, 49 against Bika 48 against Zuniga and 51 against Andrade. Meanwhile Andrade averaged 77 against Kessler, 72 against Grant, 75 against Stieglitz and 68 against Tsypko but just 56 against Bute.
Whenever Andrade moved his hands, he scored big. In the rounds where Andrade trailed in connects he was out-thrown 54-52 per round but in rounds where Andrade connected more he averaged 67 to Bute's 42. Andrade's greatest success was achieved when the volume differences were widest as in rounds five and 12 he out-threw Bute by 32 and 54 respectively. Therefore, Andrade must push the pace so Bute focuses more on defense while Bute must slow the tempo so he can control Andrade while marshaling his energy.
Recent Form: Each has fought once since Bute-Andrade I. Bute stopped Zuniga in four, out-landing him 68-41 overall and 53-25 in power shots. Andrade earned the rematch by decisioning Tsypko decisively, both on the cards and in the numbers - 291-162 in total connects and 264-110 in power connects. Both carried out principles that will benefit them Saturday; Bute was more flat-footed yet still controlled the distance while Andrade beat Tsypko - who like Bute is a southpaw - by maintaining a high work rate and pounding the body. Speaking of which...
Rib Tenderizers: Bute's body should be a target for Andrade. Fifty-two of Andrade's 160 power connects against Bute were body shots and against Tsypko he landed 94. Also, whatever limited success Zuniga enjoyed was to Bute's body as 22 of his 25 power connects - 88 percent - were targeted there.
Bute, in turn, doesn't ignore the body as 47 of his 119 power connects against Bika were body shots. A rippling left to the stomach floored Zuniga early in the fourth and several more hastened his demise.
Prediction: Bute has the tools to dominate, especially when both are fresh. All Bute needs to do is shore up his stamina. Add home field advantage to the equation and it adds up to a decisive decision victory.
For fight stats from Bute-Andrade I, take the jump.
Total Punches Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Bute | 9/42 | 20/51 | 11/51 | 14/51 | 19/47 | 17/51 | 23/57 | 15/58 | 18/61 | 26/53 | 17/57 | 11/38 |
| 21% | 39% | 22% | 27% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 26% | 30% | 49% | 30% | 29% | |
| Andrade | 10/40 | 4/47 | 8/52 | 13/57 | 26/79 | 10/56 | 12/48 | 14/59 | 13/49 | 14/55 | 12/49 | 39/82 |
| 25% | 9% | 15% | 23% | 33% | 18% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 24% | 48% |
Jabs Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Bute | 4/31 | 7/26 | 2/27 | 3/26 | 10/24 | 8/27 | 9/31 | 2/29 | 8/28 | 4/15 | 3/21 | 2/12 |
| 13% | 27% | 7% | 12% | 42% | 30% | 29% | 7% | 29% | 27% | 14% | 17% | |
| Andrade | 1/8 | 0/13 | 0/18 | 0/13 | 3/11 | 1/21 | 2/13 | 2/8 | 4/17 | 1/9 | 0/5 | 1/3 |
| 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 5% | 15% | 25% | 24% | 11% | 0% | 33% |
Power Punches Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Bute | 5/11 | 13/25 | 9/24 | 11/25 | 9/23 | 9/24 | 14/26 | 13/29 | 10/33 | 22/38 | 14/36 | 9/26 |
| 45% | 52% | 38% | 44% | 39% | 38% | 54% | 45% | 30% | 58% | 39% | 35% | |
| Andrade | 9/32 | 4/34 | 8/34 | 13/44 | 23/68 | 9/35 | 10/35 | 12/51 | 9/32 | 13/46 | 12/44 | 38/79 |
| 28% | 12% | 24% | 30% | 34% | 26% | 29% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 48% |
Final PunchStat Report
Punches Landed / Thrown
|
|
Total Punches | Jabs | Power Punches |
| Bute | 200 / 617 | 62 / 297 | 138 / 320 |
| 32% | 21% | 43% | |
| Andrade | 175 / 673 | 15 / 139 | 160 / 534 |
| 26% | 11% | 30% |
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Yeah, this is what I’m talking about! Their first fight was a fun styles mathcup, and this is just a great rematch for hardcore boxing fanatics.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
by jrok on Nov 24, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I love Andrade. Few get more out of as little. He’s a top 10 fighter in a loaded division and he does it on muscle and guts.
Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes
by SC on Nov 24, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And watching Bute develop into a terrific fighter has been a joy, too.
Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes
by SC on Nov 24, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love both of these guys. I was a skeptic for a very long time about the Super middleweight division, but a appraising it honestly it might be the most talent-rich and exciting division in boxing today. For one thing, these guys are all actually FIGHTING EACH OTHER, which is very old school and great for the sport. And the potential great matchups are better than anything else out there right now. Andrade versus Froch would be a real fun fight.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
by jrok on Nov 24, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've grown to like both of them
I’m not a fan of Andrade’s style of fighting, but gosh darn it, he just seems like such a nice guy that it’s tough to dislike him. Plus, on top of it, he seems to have about as much heart and toughness as anyone in the sport. Bute I thought was somewhat of a primedonna coming up, but he’s become really skilled over time.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 24, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hes crude but he all his fights are so much fun to watch … i used to like watching margo (b4 the handwraps controversy) for the same reason. just to watch him goto work and chop a guy down.
by boxzilla on Nov 24, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i became an andrade fan after i saw him take about 1000000 shots in the Kessler fight. dude’s a beast
as for bute, never seen him fight, but he seems like a genuinely nice bloke and from what i hear he’s an incredibly talented mofo
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Nov 24, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Bute’s ring entrances. He looks so damn relaxed and happy to be there, and while I’m not a huge fan of “U2”, it’s kind of a cool, goofy alternative to the usual gansta-rap or face-melting heavy metal riff.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
by jrok on Nov 24, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like his entrance…
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
by Zocalo on Nov 24, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both fighters are class acts…
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
by Zocalo on Nov 24, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
these guys are both my favorite smw’s, went to the first one and going to rematch this sat and i cant wait!
ring mag for the month of nov picked andrade to win by late stoppage … i;m with sc i think bute by UD but andrade is a true beast so i wouldnt be all that surprised if he can get bute tired again and get er’ done late …
either way then fight should be fast paced with andrade putting a ton of pressure and a great watch ….
by boxzilla on Nov 24, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just to be clear: The above article was written by the editors at CompuBox, and just posted here by me.
(But I’m also going Bute by UD, not to spoil anything I wanted to do on Friday for this fight. Although if you’ve been around for a while my “Bute by wide UD” pick has been stated since this fight got signed.)
Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes
by SC on Nov 24, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ya i was sure i spotted u say that before …
by boxzilla on Nov 24, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think everyone expects a Bute by UD… because like Andrade said… “I am not going to win by boxing. I am going to win by knocking him out.”
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
by Zocalo on Nov 24, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don’t care how dominant bute should be, i’m pumped for this
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Nov 24, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
even if bute is dominant the pace andrade sets and the atmosphere of this fight will make it exciting. at least i think it should …
by boxzilla on Nov 24, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know there is a case to be made that Bute is the best SM right now and that Andrade beat him if another ref actually did his job.
I am excited knowing that it might be a route…
Andrade is what is great about boxing. Here is a guy who lost most of his fights as an amateur but by sheer will has become one of the best in a loaded division.
I just wish they were a part of the supersix.
Think about Andrade facing Abraham… or Bute facing Froch…
I think if you were to put them vs those fighters… each of them would win.
The Supermiddleweight is just loaded…
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
by Zocalo on Nov 24, 2009 10:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My personal take
Although I’m sure it’s known around these parts by now, is that Wright’s poor refereeing distracted from the fact that it came out to the right outcome. He was knocked down with less than 8 seconds left. There was no way for the action to restart. All he had to do was get up to his feet, and the fight was over. He was up within 8 seconds in a normal count, and at what would have been about 11, he fell back into the ropes. But by that time, the bell should have rung, and it didn’t. If a ref had stopped the fight at that point, it would have been one of the most controversial stoppages in the history of the sport. I can’t think of another fight where the fighter was TKOed by referee stoppage after the fight should have been over.
I can get the argument that the fight should have been stopped 20-30 seconds earlier. Having a hometown ref might have helped a bit there, as is the fact that he was the champ. Usually refs let champs continue to go on a little longer, but even as such, different refs have different tendencies in those situations. You have a ref like Smoger out there, you get the same result. You have someone like Caiz Jr. out there, maybe he’s TKOed with 25 seconds left to go.
The punch stats make me think Andrade actually has more of a chance than I initially thought. If Andrade can get back up to his normal 75 or so punches a round, then Bute probably runs out of gas sooner, even if his conditioning is better and he fights with a smarter gameplan. His problem is that he tried to go for the KO in round 10, and he really got wiped out from that.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 25, 2009 3:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Although I’m sure it’s known around these parts by now, is that Wright’s poor refereeing distracted from the fact that it came out to the right outcome. He was knocked down with less than 8 seconds left. There was no way for the action to restart. All he had to do was get up to his feet, and the fight was over. He was up within 8 seconds in a normal count, and at what would have been about 11, he fell back into the ropes. But by that time, the bell should have rung, and it didn’t.
I fully agree with this. I’ve watched the ending a couple of times, and really even though Marlon was pulling some nonsense, it didn’t matter. The bell didn’t ring because the unified rules were in place (i.e. Bute could not be saved by the bell). But when you look at the clock, there were only eight seconds left, so all he needed to do was make it to his feet to win. In that sense, it was a pretty GREAT ending… how often do we really see that rule come into effect?
I can’t think of another fight where the fighter was TKOed by referee stoppage after the fight should have been over.
I know it’s not the same thing as you are saying, but from the way it’s worded…
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
by jrok on Nov 25, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In his post fight interview… he said Bute was out on his feet. Yeah… that is when you are suppose to stop a fight.
There were so many things wrong with that fight… it isn’t even worth getting mad about.
He is a bad ref… plain and simple.
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
by Zocalo on Nov 25, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He didn’t look out on his feet to me. He looked badly hurt and dog tired, but he looked responsive. I thought it was a great fight.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
by jrok on Nov 25, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it was one of the situations i’ve never seen where it was kinda a robbery either way … if they woulda stopped it since there was no time on the bell it woulda been worse then jcc taylor I imo
by boxzilla on Nov 25, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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