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Official picks thread for Saturday's Top Rank PPV

Last week we did the HBO triple-header, this week we're going to do the Top Rank PPV. This should have been a four-fight picks card, but instead is just a three. I'm not going to include Matt Korobov's showcase against Cory Jones because it could end in 20 seconds or three rounds and it's pretty much the same deal. We all know Korobov is going to smash him to pieces.

If you posted picks in the results thread yesterday, please re-post them in this thread so I'll remember to count them. Also remember to be specific. Pick the fighter to win by KO/TKO and the round it will happen, unanimous decision, split/majority decision, or you can pick a draw if you want to take the risk.

Jermain-taylor-kelly-pavlick2_medium Kelly Pavlik v. Marco Antonio Rubio (Middleweights - Pavlik's Ring Magazine world championship and WBC/WBO titles on the line)

This is Pavlik's first fight at his hometown arena in Youngstown, Ohio, since he bashed Lenord Pierre on Vs. in 2006. Since then he's fought in Anahem, Memphis, Las Vegas and Atlantic City (three times). He's becoming a "hometown" guy in AC. But there's really no place like home.

The Chevrolet Center isn't a big venue (about 7,500 are expected for the fight, which is essentially a one-fight card with local boys and the like on the undercard, with the rest of the PPV taking place at Madison Square Garden). But it will be 100% filled with Kelly Pavlik fans. He'll have a great atmosphere for his comeback.

Rubio (43-4-1, 37 KO) can punch and take a shot, but make no mistake. Pavlik hits harder than Enrique Ornelas, and Rubio took some flush, nasty shots from Ornelas last October.

This should be a trench war. I see Pavlik and Rubio coming up with some glorious exchanges, but I also see Pavlik establishing his long jab and working that deadly straight right behind it. It won't be another Gary Lockett, but it sure as hell isn't Bernard Hopkins, either.

I'm gonna take Kelly to retain in lucky number seven -- the same round he stopped both Taylor and Miranda. Pavlik TKO-7

Miguel Cotto v. Michael Jennings (Welterweights - vacant WBO title on the line)

This is where we'll get to see if Miguel Cotto has any remaining ill effects from the brutal loss last July to Antonio Margarito. If you've never seen Jennings fight, you're definitely not alone, and I've seen very little. What I have seen was not impressive. He's 31 years old, an orthodox fighter, he has little power, decent fundamentals, average quickness, and he's padded his record with so-so regional fighters. It's not his fault, it's just that's what there has been for him fighting in the UK, with zero aspirations of going international before this fight was signed.

Jennings was made mandatory challenger to Paul Williams when Williams held this title, which was yet another pathetic display of favoritism from the WBO. Jennings has no business fighting for a world title. The regional titles in Britian really don't mean much, and making them play a role at all in world rankings is rather preposterous.

Jennings is pretty much exactly the stereotype you might be imaginging in your head. If Cotto is healthy and ready to go, he's going to demolish him. I don't think Jennings is going to be any more a challenge for Cotto than Alfonso Gomez or Oktay Urkal were. Cotto TKO-5

John Duddy v. Matt Vanda (Junior Middleweights? Middleweights?)

I'm not exactly certain if they'll be fighting this at 154 or 160, or an agreed-upon weight in the middle. Both have fought middleweight, though Duddy has been aiming at coming down to 154 for a while now.

Vanda was involved in one of the most exciting fights of 2008 when he pushed Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. to the limit in Mexico, only to lose by split decision, including one absurdly transparent and bogus card from judge Francisco Mouret, who scored it for Chavez, 100-90. Vanda took one card 96-95, and lost the other 97-93. In the rematch, JC Jr. won more convincingly.

Vanda's a knockaround guy (39-8, 22 KO) who has only been stopped once, against Armando Velardez in 2004. Duddy is putting his unbeaten record on the line against a guy that can give him trouble, because a lot of guys have given him trouble. I thought Walid Smichet beat him last February, but Duddy got the nod. Duddy has also been out of the ring since a June win over Charles Howe in Boston, thanks to promotional squabbles.

Duddy is a great guy, and I'm happy he's getting back in the ring because all he wants to do is fight. He'll be around forever. Scuttlebutt is that Top Rank wants him to challenge Pavlik next. That's why I'm hoping my prediction is true, because Pavlik would bust Duddy up something God awful. It would not be pretty. I think this will be a war, and that cuts may well play a factor. I'm gonna go ahead and do it: Vanda TKO-9

0 recs  |  Comment 46 comments |

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my picks

I go for Pavlik KO 6, I think he’s going to deliver a pretty dominant performance – well I hope so anyway.
Cotto TKO 3, Jennings may not come to box/last out and could go pretty early.
Duddy UD

by BrianBrock on Feb 18, 2009 2:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

picks

Pavlik by KO 8
Cotto by TKO 5
Duddy by UD

by lcollins1 on Feb 18, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

picks

Pavlik by KO 9
Cotto KO 6
Duddy by SD

Brady Hoke, Al Borges, and Rocky Long. Aztec football is back!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 18, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

‘The regional Titles in Britain really dont mean much’.
The Champion of Britain is not a regional Title. It is a genuine title for which all except a small minority of British fighters with early delusions of grandeur aspire to. One champion for one weight division. How it should be in an ideal world. Shouldn’t disregars the Lonsdale belt as just a regional title as i feel American fighters would be a lot better off if they had an American title they could fight for before themselves stepping up to world class opponents.

by GUNNER112 on Feb 18, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It is a regional title

It is more prestigious then say the WBO Latino or Asia-Pacific titles. It is just a more focused region i.e. it compromises the UK where as others compromise multiple countries. But to say that the Lonsdale belt isn’t regional is crazy.

by TXroyal on Feb 18, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

they do

The “Americans” have quite a fewof regional titles, not the least of which is the NABA. Many good and great fighters have held it at one time or another, but the vast moajority of them vacate it to move on to bigger and better things. In and of itself, a belt like NABA isnt really a prestige sort of title.

"I want to see ocean. I want to see black people. I want to see palms." - Wladimir Klitschko

by jrok on Feb 18, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for typos

Blame Jim Beam

"I want to see ocean. I want to see black people. I want to see palms." - Wladimir Klitschko

by jrok on Feb 18, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The British titles mean nothing internationally and on the global scale. That’s all I’m saying. By definition they’re regional titles.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 18, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

picks

Pavlik KO 6th
Cotto KO 5th
Vanda by SD

by TXroyal on Feb 18, 2009 2:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik TKO-9
Cotto KO-5
Duddy-UD

by schraubd on Feb 18, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik TKO 8
Cotto TKO 4
Duddy/Vanda – NC (stopped on accidental headbutt before the end of 4)

If for some reason calling a no contest isn’t allowed or I wouldn’t get credit for it, then I’ll take Duddy on a unanimous decision (probably a technical decision where the fight is stopped on cuts ruled to be by accidental headbutt).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 18, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If you're right

on the Duddy thing there should be some extra points formula for that.

by lcollins1 on Feb 18, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's not really a points thing

But it would go in the Hall of Fame of picks.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 18, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik TKO 9
Cotto
KO 7
Duddy- SD

by Pops Daniels on Feb 18, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'll rewrite anyway

Pavlik- TKO 9
Cotta -KO 7
Duddy -SD

by Pops Daniels on Feb 18, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik KO 8
Cotto KO 5
Duddy UD

by Zocalo on Feb 18, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here we go

Pavlik ko 9

Cotto ko 6

Duddy ko 7

by Upstait on Feb 18, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik TKO 8
Cotto TKO 4
Duddy UD

by Matt Miller on Feb 18, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Picks

Pavlik TKO 6
Cotto TKO 7
Duddy UD

by DRose87 on Feb 18, 2009 7:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Picks

KELLY PAVLIK – TKO (7th Round) He’s looking to impress after his first career loss.
MIGUEL COTTO – TKO (3rd Round)
JOHN DUDDY Unanimous Decision

by JasonTryp on Feb 18, 2009 7:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

not a lot of variety going on here. Could it be so obvious? I’m wondering if JRok will break with the pack and go with Rubio

by lcollins1 on Feb 18, 2009 7:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm feeling lonely taking Vanda

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 18, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Duddy's a lot better than JCC Jr.

It should be an entertaining brawl, but probably a pretty one-sided one. If it does end, it’s probably going to be on cuts though.

Rubio is a Zertuche clone in my eyes. FWIW, Rubio has a lot of confidence that he’ll win. He says he’s found a chink in Pavlik’s armor that he plans on exploiting.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 18, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And by that I mean

Rubio now is a clone of Zertuche circa 2006/2007, when Pavlik fought him. The Pavlik and Zuniga fights seem to have taken a lot out of Zertuche, plus he’s no longer a spring chicken.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 18, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Picks

PAVLIK – TKO 5th round (no one is going lower than 6, i’ll take my chances)
COTTO – TKO 4th round
DUDDY – UD

by battle axe of doom on Feb 18, 2009 7:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Cotto wins by 4th round tko.

No predicitons on pavlik (tho he’ll win)

by cylee1180 on Feb 18, 2009 7:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Woah, i meant Cotto wins by 3rd round tko, not 4th round. It’s what i get for watching someone else’s prediction while i type. Sorry!

by cylee1180 on Feb 18, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik TKO RD 5
Cotto TKO RD 3
Duddy TKO RD 8

-Brian

by bp on Feb 18, 2009 7:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik UD
This is a real championship fight. I can see a comebacking Pavlik getting a really fast start, and getting sloppy because of it. Rubio is also a banger, so I know the assumption is going to be non-stop war, one-man enter, one-man leaves sort of affair. But unless Pavlik walks into something silly, I believe Rubio will play the counter-puncher in this fight and do it well. Middle Rounds will belong to Rubio, and we could even see a flash KD on his part with a crunching overhand right. Pavlik will wear him down in the late rounds, and we could also see a KD there (although it would have to be late in the round, since Pavlik is a stone cold killer of a finisher.) I expect a hard-fought unaminous D for Kelly Pavlik, won mostly in the later rounds.

Cotto KO2
Quite simply, I think this is a classic mismatch. I’ve watched as much tape on Jennings as I can find, and I have yet to see him take a world-class right hook, let alone a left uppercut, a kidney shot or any of the other weapons Miguel possesses . I think Jennings has enough skill to belong in this ring, but not the chops. I see him getting excited, overcommitting and falling apart under the first or second hard four punch combination that Cotto throws.

Duddy UD
I think Duddy is a crowd pleaser partly because he takes punches to give them. It;s no mystery how to hit him, and I thin Vanda will hit pretty regularly. Vanda certainly is no world class fighter, but John doesn’t completely outclass him so I think John will swing for the fences a lot, miss a lot, get tired, and basically win the fight on aggression.

"I want to see ocean. I want to see black people. I want to see palms." - Wladimir Klitschko

by jrok on Feb 18, 2009 10:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mine

Kelly – TKO in the 4th
Cotto – KO 3
Duddy – UD

by Option27 on Feb 18, 2009 10:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

My picks

Pavlik – KO 7th
I see him using that stiff jab well here to set up his right in classic Pavlik. He might try come out to try prove something early but will settle down and work the stright right in there and Rubio wont be getting up

Cotto – TKO 4th
Like most ive found little on Jennings. He looks to have suspect defence and chin. Cotto will work him like the Gomez fight and Jennings will probably go down in the 3rd and Cotto will close the show early mid 4th

Duddy – UD
Vanda will find Duddy often and cut him, but i feel Duddy will out work him through mid late rounds

by sigidy on Feb 18, 2009 11:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here

Pavlik – UD
Cotto – KO 6th
Duddy – SD

by keyz on Feb 19, 2009 2:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gospel

Pavlik – TKO 7
Cotto – TKO 2
Duddy – UD

by strike4A on Feb 19, 2009 4:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik KO 7
Cotto KO 5
Duddy SD

by 3zilla on Feb 19, 2009 5:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Cotto Surprises All

Cotto has to do this to make up for the margarito drama. I’m going to the MSG fight to see this in person. Gonna sport my new ecko cotto outfit. Have you seen the track jacket and pants?

http://www.shopecko.com/family/index.jsp?categoryId=3204010&cp=3165999

Pretty sick. Anyways, watch Cotto come out on top. As he said, if he wins, it will change his life. That’s a lot of motivation. Go Puerto Rico!

by KickPush on Feb 19, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

"pretty sick"- no thanks Ecco rep.

this is a weird new form of advertising

by lcollins1 on Feb 19, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Usually I’d warn you not to spam (and if you do it regularly, you’ll get banned and have your comments erased), but I remember Cotto had that track jacket/pants combo before the Margarito fight and I thought it was pretty dope. I might actually buy it.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 19, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I need a side gig like this

I will glady schill for Pabst Blue Ribbon and George Foreman Grills, if any of those guys are hiring. Both are pretty sick, yo. KickPush hit me on my beeper, yo.

"I want to see ocean. I want to see black people. I want to see palms." - Wladimir Klitschko

by jrok on Feb 19, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik – TKO 5

Cotto – TKO 3

Duddy – UD

by LemmeFindOut on Feb 19, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

definitely an Ecco Rep

totally spam lol good spot lcollins1

Btw SC if Vanda wins at any stage, you’ve got that over everyone…you really are the only one to pick him! Might have to not be first next time and purposely try to be a bit different…

by BrianBrock on Feb 19, 2009 4:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I picked Vanda also

but by SD. I think Duddy will get one card bc he is the better known fighter but Vanda will just get to him to much

by TXroyal on Feb 19, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pavlik TKO 4 – I envision Pavlik being a man possessed here. Rubio is a solid guy but he is there for the hitting. And Pavlik is ready to do some hitting. Everyone keeps saying that this isn’t Gary Lockett Part Deux but I don’t see why not. Because Rubio was on Solo Boxeo Tecate a few times? I don’t think it is much of a step up really.

Cotto TKO 6 – Might take Cotto a few rounds to get his bearings but I see redemption for him also around the midrange points. I’m not a big “good for boxing” guy but Cotto and Pavlik getting back on track would really be great for boxing.

Duddy TKO 9 – This could be a classic. I see Duddy possibly being behind and needing a rally. I like the kid even though he did lose to that guy Smichet or whatever. He’ll find a will and a way to beat a guy like Vanda though I’m not sure he could beat much more of an opponent.

As an aside, I wish Arum showed Wolak/Bravo instead of Korborev. Yeah, its a crap fight but its better than a noncompetitive 4 rounder.

by BabyBull1289 on Feb 20, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It’s not Gary Lockett simply because Rubio can punch. Lockett didn’t even have a puncher’s chance.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 20, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Picks

Cotto TKO 3
Pavlik KO 7
Duddy TKO 12

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Feb 21, 2009 8:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Duddy-Vanda's only a10 rounder

Duddy TKO 10

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Feb 21, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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