Official Picks for Hatton-Pacquiao
by Scott Christ on Apr 30, 2009 6:47 AM EDT
in Boxing Fight Previews
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We are picking one fight this weekend. Just one. Before we get into everybody putting their picks down and boldly stating one choice or the other, let me explain why.
I have loved a lot of what HBO and the promoters have done this year, but just like they did for Manny Pacquiao's December fight with Oscar de la Hoya, Golden Boy, Top Rank and HBO are offering us crap for a PPV undercard this weekend. I'll give some credit here:
- Top Rank tried to do Steven Luevano-Bernabe Concepcion, which is a good fight. It didn't happen. Putting Humberto Soto in against an "eh" challenger is about the best they could do considering they thought they were going with Luevano-Concepcion.
- There are good fighters who should be seen being showcased, both on TV and off TV. It's a who's who of Golden Boy and Top Rank prospects.
My issue for the purposes of our little picks competition is this: It takes no stones nor any wisdom to pick Soto, Daniel Jacobs (formerly James Kirkland), Erislandy Lara and Matt Korobov to win on TV Saturday night.
My issue for the purposes of a $50 pay-per-view broadcast are also simple and really boil down to one big thing: There is absolutely zero intrigue in any one of these fights. This is what killed the Oscar-Manny card and sent so many writers and fans into mini-hysterics, proclaiming it the worst PPV undercard of all-time. It just might have been, too. It was a joke. This one on paper doesn't shape up to be much better. Chances of it surprising and being genuinely good: 5%. Chances of it stinking the joint out, a la the Calzaghe-Jones undercard: 85%. Chances of it being a maddening, predictable mess, a la the Oscar-Manny undercard: 60%.
Your mileage may vary on this. But I've seen Jacobs, Lara and Korobov smash journeymen and cans, and I've seen Soto beat inferior competition that can't punch with him. There's nothing new. Put the three kids on Friday Night Fights and Shobox and B.A.D., put Soto in a fight where he's risking something. Give us some real fights on these money-sucking shows.
All that said, we're all happily gonna pay because the main is can't-miss, baby. We've been had again. Hats off. I also fully understand there's business to be concerned about, that Manny and Ricky are both making small fortunes for this one fight, and that fights don't come cheap. It's also not like we haven't been down this road before. I just feel like it's beyond tired, and I'm sick of the same old story every major PPV. I can understand it until the cows come home, but I'm not going to like it.
But let's move on.
Ricky Hatton v. Manny Pacquiao
12 Rounds - Hatton's Ring Magazine junior welterweight world championship on the line
Here we are. Two days out. Time to lay the cards on the table.
Ricky Hatton, junior welterweight champion of the world, almost four years running. Unbeaten at 140 pounds (43-0, 32 KO). Manny Pacquiao, the brilliant Filipino phenom who has taken the sport by storm the last few years, going from exciting, one-handed slugger to one of the best, smartest, most well-rounded fighters in the world.
Someone's gonna lose. Nobody's protecting an "0" and even though the money was an issue in negotiations, this ain't about purses. This is going to be a fight. Pacquiao and Hatton are two of the most driven fighters on the planet. Both of them want to be the best, and are willing to fight the best.
We don't get a lot of fights as genuine as this one. This is the Real McCoy, folks. This is a big one.
I've said already that I don't think Hatton has the physical edges that some people are making him out to have. Roger Mayweather briefly guested on "24/7" and made it sound like Pacquiao is 5'2" while Hatton is six feet tall. There's an inch of height for Hatton, two inches of reach for Pacquiao.
I rarely break down a fight like this, but I'll steal a page from many of the greats and go through the checklist. It's a fight that calls for it.
Power
Hatton has mauling power, crushing to the body, leaning on opponents, wearing them down and out. He's never been a one-punch guy against top competition or even close to it, and though he did hurt Paul Malignaggi a little bit last November, he never had him in serious danger or anything like that. It's also worth taking into account that Malignaggi is about 20 times tougher than he looks, but Hatton didn't dent Juan Lazcano last May, either. The last guy he really hurt was Jose Luis Castillo, who looked like he'd rather be fishing or getting darts thrown at him that night. He stopped Malignaggi, but that was Buddy McGirt's call.
Pacquiao has flashier power than that. His lethality comes from his overall style, as the southpaw moves in and out at such a pace that it's damn hard for anyone to beat up on him, and he generally inflicts far more punishment than the man across the ring. Juan Manuel Marquez staggered Manny a couple times last March, but Oscar barely touched him in December. Marquez and Hatton are completely different fighters, too. Juan stood in the pocket, trying to get Pacquiao to trade with him, trying to catch him on perfectly placed counter shots. That is not Ricky's game. Pacquiao floored Marquez once in that fight and had him wobbled a couple other times. Oscar would have been chopped down by Pacquiao had he been any smaller of a man. David Diaz took a nasty beat from Manny.
Of Marquez, Diaz and de la Hoya, Hatton most resembles Diaz, though he's a much better fighter than that to be sure.
Edge: Pacquiao
Speed
Ricky and Floyd are talking about Hatton's speed, and many analysts caution not to ignore that Ricky isn't a slouch in that department. I agree he's not bad in any way. He's got underrated speed, and he looks quicker than ever working with Floyd on the mitts. The Mayweather mitts routine is what it is, looks great for cameras, certainly means something, and I can't imagine the Ricky Hatton of the Billy Graham years being able to do that stuff so well. No knock on Graham, no knock on the Hatton of old, that's just how it is.
But let's also not try to kid ourselves or anyone else: Manny Pacquiao is a hell of a lot faster than Ricky Hatton. If there is one huge advantage for either man in this fight, it's Pacquiao's speed.
Edge: Pacquiao
Defense
Mayweather is known as a defensive specialist as a trainer, and rightly so. It's the thing he best understands, best teaches, and preaches the hardest. As he says, the name of the game is hit and don't get hit. (The actual name of the game is boxing, but I'm not arguing with Big Floyd here.)
Pacquiao is so much better defensively now than he was a few years ago that it's absurd. Hatton's offense will test that, both if he starts out trying to box and if he has to revert to his old bull-rushing ways. Ricky is a meat-and-potatoes defensive fighter unless Floyd has really made a huge difference. There is nothing to have learned from Hatton defensively against Malignaggi because Paulie couldn't get Ricky to respect him. He just doesn't hit hard enough to put a dent in Hatton, so Ricky could sort of take it easy defensively knowing that nothing that came through was going to rock his world or anything. That's not the case against Pacquiao, and he knows it. As much as Floyd may want to pretend Manny doesn't pose a great threat, Floyd knows it too. He'll have Hatton as prepared as possible.
As for Pacquiao, his best defensive quality isn't picking shots off or being so slick that you can't hit him, he just moves really fast. He's in, two-to-four punches later he's out. Hatton will try to break that down with a jab meant to blind Manny more than anything, which is something Michael Moorer predicted on "24/7" and something that makes a ton of sense. You can't slow Manny down if you can't hit him, and he's hard to hit. Hatton will have to use that blinding jab Moorer talked about and then try to kill to the body. He's got to take Manny's legs if he's going to have a real chance.
Don't expect and Mayweather shoulder rolls, let's put it that way. This fight won't be won or lost on pure defense.
Edge: Pacquiao, slightly
Chin
Pacquiao has been stopped twice, both so long and so many weight classes ago that they have about as much relevance now as Styx's Kilroy Was Here. Both were body shots. Here's the one against Rustico Torrecampos at flyweight in 1996. Here's the one against Medgoen Singsurat, also at flyweight in 1999. We're talking a decade or more and 35 pounds ago from his highest fighting weight, 28 pounds lighter than what he's fighting at Saturday.
In short, these things mean nothing. The Hatton camp is aware. It's jibber-jabber.
Hatton was stopped by Floyd in the 10th round because Mayweather is (1) an underrated puncher whose accuracy makes him more powerful than just pure muscle, and (2) a much better fighter than Hatton. It's no shame that he drilled Hatton with shots Ricky barely saw coming and put him down that night. Chin isn't an issue for either guy going in. They can take shots, though this is worth noting, and the only thing about size I think is worth noting: We still don't know how Pacquiao takes shots against a guy of Hatton's size and strength. My guess is that he takes it fine, but it's an open question for now.
Edge: Push
Stamina
Hatton ran out of gas against Mayweather and that played a part in him getting check hooked out of his undefeated record. He ran out of gas because he had to put forth so much effort and really didn't slow Floyd down at all because he just didn't hit him much. I can't remember the last time Pacquiao looked flat tired in the ring. Even in his last loss, to Morales in '05, he brought it through the 12th and final round. He went 12 nasty rounds with Marquez last year and followed that up with two fights he dominated so thoroughly that the only reason he broke a sweat was beating the hell out of the other guy takes effort, too.
Like chin, stamina won't be an issue, and I'm going push here, but if anyone has stamina issues, it'll be one of two things:
- Hatton punishes Manny to the body and takes his air.
- Hatton's between-fights lifestyle catches up with him against a guy that moves this much.
Edge: Push
Heart
They've both got a lot of it, and that's the real statement here.
Now what I'm about to say might ruffle Pacquiao fan feathers -- keep in mind, Pacmaniacs, I'm one of you. Ricky Hatton knows that this fight would cement his legacy beyond any doubts. Manny Pacquiao has become a superstar, a guy that trains and Mark Wahlberg comes and sits in awe of him. Pacquiao has moaned a little about money for both of his last two fights. I think Pacquiao's a better fighter than ever. I would bet for damn sure this isn't the "hungriest" he's ever been.
But Hatton? I think he's about as driven as he's ever been.
But this is just BSing and I could be so completely wrong that it isn't even funny. Don't take it too seriously, don't get in an uproar about it. Neither of these guys will leave that ring having left anything less than everything in there.
Edge: Push
Durability
Hatton and Pacquiao have both bled, but if either guy winds up with a serious cut my money would be on Hatton doing the bigger juicing. Neither have any major injury concerns.
Edge: Pacquiao
The Trainers
Trainers don't fight the fights. Roach and Mayweather are both world class. Their guys will be prepared. Let's leave it at that.
The Verdict
I don't see any area where Ricky Hatton has an advantage, but I don't see any area besides the obvious (speed) where Pacquiao has a big advantage, either. This fight is about as even and intriguing as they come on this sort of scale. Hatton and Pacquiao are two of the best fighters in the world, a couple guys that are there to mix it up in their own ways. Neither one will back down. If it becomes a firefight, they've both got a chance to put the other man away.
If Ricky Hatton loses this fight, I could imagine him contemplating retirement. He's newly engaged, seems settled down in his personal life, has a son he'd like to spend more time with, and has done a lot in boxing. But Ricky Hatton is not Joe Calzaghe, who I genuinely don't see coming back, and he's not Oscar de la Hoya, who is old and lost his fighter's heart years ago. Hatton's 30, hasn't been in a lot of wars, is insanely popular, and that desire to fight will be there.
I don't see him having any advantages, and yet there's this gnawing feeling in the pit of my stomach that Ricky Hatton's about to shock a lot of people. He won't do it boxing. He'll have to get reckless, throw caution to the wind, and make a stand in the middle of the ring. He has to bait Manny Pacquiao. There's only one Ricky Hatton, and the Mayweather changes may help him against most guys, but Manny Pacquiao isn't one of them.
I'm just feeling like Ricky Hatton's got this in him on this night, against this guy, in this fight. It might be the only time he ever does something of this magnitude ever again. That doesn't matter.
I see a brawl breaking out. I see two guys who have fought their guts out throwing heavy leather. I hear Lampley losing his voice. I see Hatton finding a thunderous left hook.
I see Ricky Hatton by 11th round TKO.
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Hatton TKO 10.
I think the whole fight pivots on how well Pacquiao can take a big man’s punch – thanks to De La Hoya’s punch bag impression we don’t actually know.
I see Pacquiao starting quick and outboxing Ricky, but in the mid stages his pride getting him drawn into a straight brawl, and IMO there’s only one winner at that stage….
- It could go the other way, Pac does enough work on Ricky in the early rounds, trades later with Ricky exhausted and battered and gets the stoppage, but I feel my first idea is more likely.
I keep going back and forth
But I’m going Pacquiao TKO 10.
The way Lazcano rang Hatton’s bell before he got a shoe tie break somewhat scares me. On the other hand, while Hatton will easily be the hardest puncher Pacquiao has faced (by a LONG shot), Pacquaio will only be the third or fourth hardest puncher that Hatton has faced (and anyone who thinks Pac has more power than Tszyu needs to put down the pipe). Also, there’s the style issue. I think Hatton will be able to lure Pacquiao into a brawl. He’s been able to be baited into a brawl or lulled into a boxing match his entire career, and I don’t see how this fight is any different. I think there’s a good chance Pacquiao just gets smothered in this one (and I think Americans tend to underrate Hatton generally, especially considering how low most pubs have Hatton in their P4P ratings), but I think Pacquiao’s crisp punching and speed will make the difference, and once Pac has Hatton wobbling, he won’t let up until Hatton goes down or the ref stops the fight.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Tough choice...
The rational side of me is saying Pacman, but I have this gut feeling telling me that Hatton is going to pull off the upset. I just can’t decide. One thing I know for sure though is that this is going to be one hell of a fight!!!
Difficult
For me, as long as Ricky doesn’t get caught in first 4-5 rounds then I think he will wear Manny down as the fight develops and he can work his inside game. I really do believe Ricky’s learnt and developed under Mayweather Sr. and I think he’ll fight with his head and work Manny out before looking to unload.
Ricky’s going to get hit, that’s for sure but so is Manny (although maybe not so much early on). I really hope we get some classic toe-to-toe action. In fact, I’m sure we will and I think there’s only 1 winner in that game.
Ricky Hatton TKO 9
Hatton-Pacman
Hatton TKO 8
I see Pac-man taking the early lead and Hatton coming on in the later rounds. Thing is with Pac, sometimes he seems he does not want to be in there, looking at his face and expressions. He is not unbeatable, he been stopped before, knocked down and hurt. JMM stung him a few times and i dont think he hits harder than Ricky.
I hear folk say Pacman could perhaps win on cuts but when have they been a real factor? Sure Ricky cuts but we seen him looking like a boxer from the 50s with blood pissing down his face to roar back and win.
Hattons Stamina? Well he moves in straight lines and easy to outbox/slap around when tired that could be a factor but this time he is in the shape of his life.
Two of my Fav fighters today its a fantastic match-up that i cant miss.
Come on Hatton… Do him…
"But I was going into Toshi Station to pick up some power converters"-Luke Skywalker
Pacquiao UD
Tough fight to pick so I’m going with the guy I prefer to cheer for in this fight.
-Brian
Four Pacquiao advantages and three pushes equals a Hatton win?
That’s interesting math.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions
So the Hatton's style of being inferior of every facet of the game will allow him to defeat Pacquiao?
I look forward to seeing that. Should be remarkable.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you honestly believe this has never happened before in the history of boxing?
by Scott Christ on Apr 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Has an inferior fighter has never beaten a superior one?
Yes, it’s happened. I just think it’s the exception, rather than the rule.
When picking fights, I usually try to pick the MORE skilled fighter. Call me crazy.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, right. I want the RULE, NOT the exception. I always get those confused.
Do you need me to spell out every single thing I say? Can you drop the smug act? Call me crazy but you’re doing nothing but baiting at this point.
by Scott Christ on Apr 30, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just surprised that the analysis trended so heavily to Pac, and then the final call was made on a "gnawing feeling."
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, OK, that’s fair, but that’s all it is. Yeah, I think Pacquiao’s the better fighter. The smart money is on Pacquiao. I absolutely don’t argue with that point at all. I just see this one night going for Ricky Hatton. Chances are I’m wrong, of course.
I think Hatton wins but I’m also not so blind as to think that outside of what I think is a good style matchup for him, he doesn’t have anything on paper over Pacquiao, so I didn’t want to be like, “Well, Pacquiao probably does hit harder, but I’m picking Hatton so I’ll say Hatton does” or “Pacquiao’s faster but for the purposes of my half-insane prediction, I’ll say it’s Ricky.” I don’t see size as a genuine issue here and that’s what a lot of pro-Hatton pickers are using. I just think it’s the right guy at the right time.
by Scott Christ on Apr 30, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. Should be a hell of a fight, regardless.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You're wrong alright
Pac TKO 7. It might be earlier if he beats Ricky’s face into mush and the doctor stops it.
TKO 7 in the ring.
TKO 5 or 6 if its stopped on the stool
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't even have to stick to one when I place that bet
Anyways – I am sticking to 2 picks. If Pac finishes him it will be 7. If Big Floyd or the doctor stops it – it will be in 5 or 6 as Ricky’s face will swell up and look like a bulldog that got smacked around with a baseball bat. Or a cricket bat if it suits you better.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Give him a break
He hit 5, 6 and 7 on the dartboard. Don’t mess with his highly scientific anal-ysis.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Zing!
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
especially when it’s a good bigger man v. a good smaller man. The smaller guy can be the better fighter and lose because his margin of error is smaller. Pac doesn’t shy away from getting hit, so even though he may be better overall I still see him getting KO’d by the less skilled slightly bigger puncher. The DLH fight is something of a myth because DLH was terrible. I’m convinced this will be the best Hatton we ever see.
So to answer ‘how can Pac advantage overall equal a Hatton win?’ It can, and it’s not irrational at all.
DLH was terrible
I love how this is the prevailing wisdom now. Like it was a foregone conclusion.
Pac made him look terrible. He beat a guy significantly bigger than Hatton, yet people still point to Hatton’s size as the main reason he’ll win the bout.
Don’t see it. If it happens on Saturday, I will stand corrected.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
ok let’s say that was the best DLH has ever been. Pac still couldn’t cave a knee or blur his eyes. DLH got stung, never badly hurt, never dropped. Hatton’s got a good chin, younger, willing/able to pull trigger. That’s the rationale.
And, if you’re right, you’re right. You act like we’re all going to come back here and call each other names because you were right or I was right. My personal pride and legitimacy is not invested in the outcome of this fight, whether I stand corrected or not.
Just trying to inject a note of humility. Not of the belief I have all the answers.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, you're crazy
It happens all the time. Guys who seem to possess every obvious advantage on paper lose all the time, and you can pick them to lose despite those things. Intangibles, unfavorable style matchups, experience, prior fight history, venue, and other criteria are all part of the puzzle in picking a fight.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
I’m just surprised that the analysis trended so heavily to Pac, and then the final call was made on a “gnawing feeling.” But, like you say, if that’s the call the writer wants to make, fair enough. Just seems like he should be ready for a little second-guessing in the comments if he goes that route.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
How is that a style?
Pac has never had to deal with a bully with Hatton’s strength before.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
You sound like you have no idea what you are talking about.
But hey, just like in any sport, there’s a 50% chance your pick will be right. Maybe when that happens, you could come back here and crow about what a boxing expert you are. Or better yet, you could start your very own boxing blog! You could call it “Stats make Fights.”
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
I'm picking the guy who's a -270 favorite and I have no idea what I'm talking about?
I’m just surprised that the analysis trended so heavily to Pac, and then the final call was made on a “gnawing feeling.”
Like you say, all will be made clear on Saturday.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Apr 30, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m picking the guy who’s a -270 favorite and I have no idea what I’m talking about?
Yes, that’s what I said. Besides the fact that those numbers will tighten up as we get near fight night, the idea that you would you even use the current betting line as evidence that you know what you are talking about doesn’t exactly make you Bert Sugar in my book.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Hahah
No, I am going to pick tomorrow as usual. Friday mornings are the only time this world grants me to watch tape on fighters, and I try never to pick until I’ve watched the last two fights of both guys (or a key fight in terms of their matchup).
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Tape won't tell you jack about this fight
Hatton’s never faced someone with the speed of Pacquiao and beaten only 1 in Urango with more power. Of course… Urango couldn’t combine his punches like Pacquiao to save his life and he can’t avoid any either. So thats completely moot. Pacquiao still hasn’t been hit flush, hard and repeatedly by a powerful guy north of 130 lbs so his chin can still be doubted. However, since he’s had time to fill into the weight i don’t think it will be a problem.
Hatton’s only chance is to make this an ugly, UGLY fight and hit once then dive in and hold like he was trying against Floyd. Course, Hatton slowed DRASTICALLY after the 5th and just got murdered from that point on. I think it happens even faster here as Manny is naturally built more powerfully than Floyd
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
It will. Guys that just move up in weight still aren’t used to the stresses put on their body. The longer he’s been at that weight the better his body will deal with a shot. Pavlik has always had at least a serviceable chin at 160 but against slightly harder than featherfisted B-hop he got rocked multiple times. If Pavlik moved to 175 and stayed there for a while he’d do fine.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:41 AM EDT up reply actions
He's filling his chin with molten lead
I like how I’m a dumbass for watching tape of past fights before I pick. I guess I should go by this IP Freely guy’s method…. pick by NOT reviewing past fights.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
"and beaten only 1 in Urango with more power"
Tszyu, at worst, was much more powerful than Pac. He had serious one-punch KO power at welterweight. When was the last time Pac KOed someone with one punch, when he was at 122? Vince Phillips was probably a bigger puncher as well. For some reason I thought in my head that Hatton faced Randall Bailey back in the day, but I was misremembering that one.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
And as for chin
Either it’s good or it isn’t. The thing that can really screw it up is taking big swings in water content, because you’re not going to recover from being dizzy well if your cochlea is irritated, and thus some guys who were very weight drained at lower weights may be less chinny when they move up, but Pac’s never been that chinny to begin with. He’s beek KOed twice, but as Scott mentioned, they were both body shots when he was still a flyweight, and he obviously didn’t have enough muscle covering that area to adequately protect his body.
Saying Hatton’s only chance is to rush in, throw punches and clinch is kind of like saying Wladimir Klitschko’s only chance at winning is throwing a million jabs. Have you actually watched Ricky Hatton fight? Of course that’s what he’s going to do. That’s how Ricky Hatton fights. He has little T-Rex arms, so he’s always bullied his way to the inside. It’s how he beat Tszyu, it’s how he beat Castillo, it’s how he fought Mayweather. Against featherfisted Paulie Malignaggi, I think he wanted to prove he wasn’t a one-trick pony, but there’s a reason Hatton fights the way he does.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Oh the other two factors that can make chin look a little better at a higher weight
Stronger calves – Boxers generally don’t want big calves because they weigh a lot and don’t add much. Bigger calves = better able to stay on feet. Pac has ginormous calves for a boxer.
Stronger neck – See how Shannon Briggs’ chin improved when he bulked the hell out. If you can avoid whiplash, you’re less likely to have your brain rattle around too badly (really the two ways to drop a guy are to dizzy them to the ear or concuss them to the brain).
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Because I was doing math. That was the point.
by Scott Christ on Apr 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
time to make it official
Pacquiao TKO 5
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Apr 30, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions
I think if Pac finishes it
It will be TKO 7 in the ring
If Big Floyd or the doctor finishes it TKO 5 or 6
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions
If you think Floyd is going to throw in the towel to protect Ricky Hatton
You may be a little insane.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
I am truly upset with BLH
How come there aren’t any pick for ROACH-MAYWEATHER Sr.? just kidding.
"Penelosa is not human." -Max Kellerman on Gerry Penelosa during the Juan Manuel Lopes-Gerry Penelosa bout.
Hatton - TKO 7
I don’t think a Hatton TKO is overwhelmingly likely. This is sort of a hopeful pick. I do think a knockout will come for one of them during the fight. The longer it goes though, I think Hatton gets more desperate for the KO and gets wild leaving his chin out for the taking.
pick
i like pacman tko 9
speed kills. in pacmans case, speeds just murders. just ask mr. delahoya. manny is going to be just too much for hatton.
a lot of people are saying this is going to be a brawl. i dont see that at all. especially now, since manny is a much improved fighter than he was since the first moralas fight. manny wont be goated into any slugfest. hes too smart and freddy won’t allow it. there will be some exchanges for sure but manny’s speed and power will win just about all of them.
brick made a good point that i was going to make about hattons chin. he’s getting buzzed by juan lazcano, that fact is actually making me think manny might finish him off earlier.
should be a fun night. the crowd is going to be going apeshit.
great analysis sc … really enjoyed reading it. unlike many i can really see this fight going either way, but for no more of a reason that i think manny is on fire right now i’m gonna pick him … prediction hatton slows late in the fight manny still got enuf juice to put him away …
pac via 11th rd TKO
My pick
Hatton- TKO-10
Boxing is the beginning of all sports. I'm willing to bet that the first sport was a man against another man in a fight. (Omar Epps)
One winner
I think SC is spot on when raising the “on this night” factor. There are too many uncertainties to be 100% in favour of Pacquiao. He has the style to really hurt Hatton, but it depends whether he can figure out Hatton and how he performs in the clinch. Paulie M certainly never got to grips the Hitman’s style after the first round of their bout.
Hatton has intelligent footwork when he’s at his best and his lead rights and left hooks can be lethal. Hatton’s the dominant man at light welterweight, and is nothing close to being a one-dimensional fighter. He can punch and coming out of the clinch is very dangerous. However, I think Pacquiao’s heart, focus, ferocity, accuracy, speed and style will be enough to see off Hatton, who will be picked off, worn down and stopped late in the fight, i’ll say the 10th. Pacquiao will won’t run the whole fight, it’s not in his make-up, the two will trade like the warriors they are, but Hatton will come off worse. It will be a gutsy, heroic performance from Hatton, who will hurt Pacquiao, but this fight will be the affirmation of Pacquiao’s mastery and P4P status.
Pacman UD
I think the early rounds will actually lack the action many expect—each man will be cautious of the other, and it will become a test of technical skill. Pacquiao will win most of these rounds, and in the second half of the fight Hatton will turn up the aggression. At this point, Pacquiao will oblige by engaging in frequent exchanges (which might favor Hatton IMO). None of the two will back down until the end, and Pac’s early dominance will prove to be the deciding factor of the fight.
completely off-topic and possibly stupid question
but anyone have any idea where i can get a pacquiao show other than being at the fight? i just went to his website and its pretty cluttered and doesn’t seem to have a link to any merchandise.
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Apr 30, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
correction
where i can get a pacquiao shirt*
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Apr 30, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
good call
they don’t have much but its something. thanks
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Apr 30, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Prediction
I see PACQUIO wearing Hatton down and beating the beJesus out of him by the 9TH Round.
Hatton is good but not good enough. Perhaps if the fight were in Manchester he’d win.
Paquiao UD.
While Hatton will show heart and maybe win some middle rounds, I see Paq winning in a surprisingly dominant fashion. Paq is now so fast and has such a high output that, like Calzaghe (except much stronger for his weight), his offense is also a powerful defense.
Hatton will find himself flummoxed more often than not, chasing Paq, much as he did Floyd for much of their fight. When Hatton catches Paq, Paq peppers him good, and while Ricky is gutsy enough to take it and dish some out on his own, it won’t be enough. Neither man will be stopped, but Paq’s output will win the day.
Boxing writer: "Iran, what are you going to do when you retire?"
Iran Barkley: "Rob your house"
Hatton TKO 6
Could happen later or earlier, but Hatton hits harder than JMM who hurt Pac. And Hatton’s got no trigger problems.
Where is the proof that Hatton hits harder than JMM?
And JMM is about 10000X more accurate than Hatton with his punches. Places them better, times them better and is just plain better. JMM 3 will be a bigger challenge for Pac. I think JMM beats Hatton also. And I like Ricky so i’m not just being a hater. I think this matchup really doesn’t stack up well for him.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Valero and Juanma weigh less than Paulie Malignaggi
Weight doesn’t mean that much.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:38 AM EDT up reply actions
That's about punching technique
He doesn’t sit on his punches at all, and he throws slaps 80% of the time because of his fragile hands.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Hatton KO-10
Lot more people picking Hatton then I thought. If Hatton does lose it will be by a decision. No way does he get knocked out.
Hatton KO-9
Long time reader (great work guys), first time poster.
I can see this fight going several different ways and keep changing my mind pretty much every 5 minutes but I reckon Hatton to grind him down and take him out in the later rounds- i’ll go for the ninth.
Hatton TKO 10
Body shot KOs Pac just like his previous knockout losses.
And I’m curious as to the people who think Hatton won’t last as long as a weight-drained shot Oscar De La Hoya did…really?
Boxing is like jazz. The better it is, the less people appreciate it.
-George Foreman
My pick...and great write up, btw
Wrong button….I’m extremely big on HATTON TKO 7. Pacquiao couldn’t drop a drained Oscar and Ricky will hit him harder. Could not be looking forward to this one more…
oscar hasn’t been dropped by a head shot, so why is it such a knock on the pacman that he couldn’t do it?
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Apr 30, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
you must not be counting
the 6 or 7 times oscar was dropped in his career.
by sonofapsycho on Apr 30, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I just thought
that he had almost complete freedom to throw on a guy who just stood there and threw very little back. Of course he beat up on him, but I slightly questioned how well all his power carried up given he never once sent him to the floor. Could be complete b-s and Hatton tinted glasses though I guess?! :)
Thats coming from a guy that turtled against the ropes
I really believe him when he didn’t say one word to Nacho not to stop the fight. Pacquiao beat the fight outta him. You can’t do that with a pillow.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Pacquiao beat the fight out of him. That doesn’t mean Oscar made up the fact that he didn’t feel Manny hit too hard at 147 pounds. David Diaz said much the same thing at 135: It’s not Manny’s power, it’s his speed. I’m not yet convinced his power has come up with him past 130. He’s not Paul Malignaggi-fisted or anything, but I’m not sure he’s quite as destructive. His speed, lucky for him, makes up for that.
Yeah, but speed is power isn’t it? Maybe not enough to unplug the lamp, but enough to keep breaking the bulb. If the fighter can keep replacing it or if the referee or his corner lets him is another story.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Yeah, but speed is power isn’t it?
Sure in a lot of ways, but I don’t think his brute force translated past 130. The types of knockdowns he’s scored on Marquez haven’t been there against Diaz and Oscar, and he sure as hell hit them enough.
idk
i thought he floored diaz pretty badly. diaz couldve just been extremely exhausted and fell over, but it didn’t look that way.
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on May 1, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
He wore him out with vicious pressure and speed. It was a wicked finish but like, those Marquez knockdowns, those flash knockdowns that come suddenly — he hasn’t had those, and Marquez is a damn sight better than Diaz at least.
well the JMM II wasn’t really a flash kd. he legitimately had him hurt (as evident by JMM going to the wrong corner), but yeah it did come otu of nowhere
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on May 1, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
You could also make the argument that “Manny didn’t get the chance to drop Oscar.” Oscar KO’d himself in the corner. Maybe he was avoiding the inevitable.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
There are countless fights that would have surely been stopped when Pacquiao was beating the crap out of a defenseless Oscar on the ropes, too. Oscar was just standing there. Manny even let up some.
by Scott Christ on Apr 30, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Manny was up against a bigger De La Hoya and whupped him
This won’t be a blowout, but Hatton can’t keep up with Pacquiao.
Pacquiao TKO 8
Seattle Seahawks: We've got Brian Russell and TWO kickers!
Emmanuel Pacquiao by Unanimous Decision
Sure Ricky is bigger and is most likely the hardest puncher Pac has faced for a good long while. But this is going to come down to footwork, Manny’s got it, Ricky not so much.
Don’t get me wrong, Ricky’s got quick feet, but he doesn’t have intelligent feet. His fights with Paulie Malinaggi, Juan Urango and Ben Tackie are illusions in regard to rating Hatton’s true skills in footwork because most of the time Malinaggi stood flatfooted and in front of Hatton with his left hand down; waiting to be hit, and both Urango and Tackie are flatfooted one dimensional sluggers. Ricky bores in in straight lines and hasn’t shown the ability to hit the switchboard to change tracks(i.e. moving to the left or right while moving forward). His fight with Floyd Mayweather showed his limitations in this regard as Ricky bored in on Floyd without using angles and played right into Mayweather’s defense/offense; which counts on guys standing in front of Floyd so he can use his shoulder roll to completely neutralize all forward attack.
Pacquiao can switch tracks, not only moving laterally but also moving forward and backward at angles. Manny will walk Ricky into his hard punches and also take a step back and hit Hatton as he tries to grab him. There will be a few rounds when Pacquiao’s feet flatten out a little bit and Hatton can take advantage and add a few rounds into his column. But. I see the decision as 8 rounds to 4 in favor of Pacquiao with a possible late round fatigue-induced knockdown of Hatton to solidify his dominance.
Pick- Pacquiao TKO 9
This is a really tough choice picking the winner of this fight. I can see this thing going either way. To put it simply, if Pac can manage to keep this fight on the outside,IMO he wins. On the other hand,if Hatton can find his way inside without taking too much punishment,I see him winning. I’m tempted to go with a draw here but I think somebody is getting KOed.
Pacquiao TKO 11
Wow! What a difficult fight to pick. I think if Manny can withstand some of the shots he is bound to take early on that he will ultimately outlast Hatton. I don’t think either fighter is tremendous defensively, but Manny is slightly better. This coupled with what I think is Manny’s superior fitness are my reasons for the pick. Either way I think it will be a great fight and very willing to put up the money. (However I am a little disappointed by the undercard and wish my boy Kirkland were still on it)
by pretty boy floyd on Apr 30, 2009 11:52 PM EDT reply actions
Sorry, can't see much chance for Hatton...
I think Manny cuts Hatton early and if it’s in a bad place he tees off on it. Even if he doesn’t I don’t see Hatton wearing him down.
Pacquiao KO 9
Big Fight Big Pick
Pacquiao – TKO 9
Round 1-2
I believe it will start off with Pac controlling distance and and style of fight. Ricky tests out his boxing skills uses that jab. Pacquiao wins both rounds.
Round 3-5
Ricky realises that he cant win by staying out side and starts to bull in little bit more and staying inside. Probably expect Mayweather telling him to jab more. Hatton takes some rounds Manny still wins at least another.
Round 6-8
Pacquiao starts making Hatton pay for coming in with straight lefts and quick combos then getting out. Hatton wobbled little bit at end of round 8. Pac gets few more rounds in the bag .
Round 9
Pac starts sitting down on his shots smelling blood. Ricky knows one way and continues to come for Pac working his hooks. The punch that does the damage…Short left inside while Hatton comes in same as the Diaz shot and talked about with Roach and Moorer on 24/7. Hatton has heart for years and gets up Pac moves in drops him ref says its over.
Ive been thinking this for few weeks and noticed something important. Pacquiao has the great ability to give him self that foot of room iniside to throw hard fast shots were as Hatton gets in closer and goes around with hooks. Pac might be able to make Hatton miss them hooks and get his shots off landing 2 maybe 3 to 1
Plus Pacquiao’s mum will be watching for the first time live and you cant lose infront of your own mum
Pacquiao TKO 10
I think Manny’s speed and conditioning will give him the edge. Although, I’ve noticed during the Hatton and Pacquiao 24/7 show that Manny has a habit of going to the right after a combination. The latest episode has Hatton noticing it too. If timed right, he could land a left hook and drop Manny. This doesn’t change my pick though. The show doesn’t reveal everything about their training and I’m sure Manny has a few tricks up his sleeves for Hatton’s rough in-fighting.
If you think Freddie Roach doesn't know that Mayweather and hatton saw that
and planned accordingly for it – if not OUTRIGHT had manny do it for the cameras… You’re fooling yourself.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on May 1, 2009 4:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I can’t believe people are saying JMM hits harder than Hatton?! La la land! More accurate? Yes. Harder? No chance.
Here’s what I base this on:
Reminds me of The Acorn
Everyone likes to talk about how hard a puncher Shavers was, and he did hit “hard” in a physics equation sort of way. But he wasn’t a very “good” puncher. Accuracy produces more and purer kayos than brute force. Shavers put Holmes down with one of his giant overhand rights, but couldn’t keep him there, because it missed the chin. Holmes recovered to finish things.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
One thing I’m sure about is that this fight will look nothing like Mayweather-Hatton or Pacquaio-De La Hoya. For one thing, Pacquiao isn’t going to be steering Hatton into traps or playing possum. We all know what Pac is going to do. He will remain up on his toes, attempting to divebomb Hatton and establish a punishing pace from round one. He’ll look to poke holes in Hatton with the straight left and the right hook, and swarm him on the offbeats. He will slug when forced to, box when not. He’s going to be fast and offensive-minded, he’s not going to clinch. I think the real mystery is in what Hatton is going to do. I keep wondering which Ricky Hatton are we going to see, and under what circumstances and for how long we’ll see him.
Scott that was a pretty excellent opinion up there, but the one thing I disagree with is leaving the “trainer” category empty. I have a nagging suspicion that Hatton’s training camp was uncomfortable and disapointing for everyone involved. It was a stroke of marketing genius, but I can’t imagine Hatton meshing with Mayweather very well for very long. Hatton is very good at what he does and likely the best fighter at 140 today. But you just can’t master a defensive boxing style in the space of one fight against a punchless fighter like Malignaggi. it’s a good confidence builder, but I believe its false confidence. We all know the style that got Ricky where he is today, and its not what we saw against Paulie.
I think Hatton’s head might be turned around for this fight, that he will be confused about what he’s supposed to be doing, and that be the time he remembers what to do it will be a round or two too late. He’s never faced a world class southpaw who can box and puch, and I don’t think anyone is paying enough attention to how much more difficult to will be for Hatton to wend his way inside because of this. It also think he has demons at the MGM that weren’t fully exorsised by the Malignaggi win. Not to say that he can’t win. He sure can win. He’ll be looking for the left hook to the body to cripple Manny under the southpaw jab. But I don’t think he can box his way into that position, leaving him where it will do the most damage. He’ll have to bull his way in, and fire when Manny pulls away. If he can land it, it could spell doom for Pacquaio… anyone who doesn’t think thats a possibility is fooling themselves I think. Manny Pacquaio minus his legs is a doomed man.
Still I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hatton is cut-able, and Manny straight left is a switchblade. There’s a real possibility that a bad cut will send things downhill in a hurry, and force Hatton to go all Jake Lamotta in the middle rounds. Either way, my gut tells me that the speed differential will quickly become insurmountable, and that Pacquaio won’t take off rounds like Mayweather did. My gut also tells me that Bayless, while he’s no prima donna like Cortez, also won’t allow Hatton to turn this into a wrestling match with excessive holding. I can see the straight left standing Hatton up for a furious unanswered combination on the ropes that forces Bayless to stop the fight.
Pacquiao TKO 8
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Great comment
and analysis, but this means I have no chance of tying or passing you (with the “KO”) in the picks poll. I was hoping you’d go for Hatton, but I had a feeling you would go with Manny, which is the sensible thing to do.
Why oh why did I trust my “instinct” (while hungover) and pick Winky Wright over Williams…
Boxing writer: "Iran, what are you going to do when you retire?"
Iran Barkley: "Rob your house"
Heh heh, well we can only pick who we think is gonna win, right? I mean, if I was laying money down, I’d probably go with Hatton. He is still a little cheap last time I checked.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Why oh why did I trust my "instinct" (while hungover) and pick Winky Wright over Williams…
Dude, I remember you were kinda salty about it too heh heh. You were like "What’s with all this Williams herd mentality jibba jabba? " Still, nothing like me picking Sven Ottke B.J. Flores to KO Hernandez. Anyone here could have licked a whole sheet of LSD and made a better pick.
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
I mean "Herrera"
"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb
Manny…. UD
Manny is just a better fighter. He is an all time great fighter… Hatton is just a great fighter
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
yep exactly
to bring up that argument from further up this thread about the lesser skilled fighters beating the superior one, it does happen but not to exceptional fighters who are in their prime (not counting heavyweights). hatton is a good fighter (no matter how overrated i think he is), but he doesn’t have the tools to defeat an all time great fighter in pacquiao
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on May 1, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
agree, but...
I thought the weight might count for a bit more? Pac is not Paul Williams the physical freak jogging across weight classes in the middle of his career. He has one fight at 135 against a fair opponent, and then one where he weighed in at 142, where the nature of DLH’s non performance means that it didn’t prove that Pac could beat the best at 140/+. I just think Hatton’s going to be a lot naturally stronger at the weight, and can win while not being the all time great that Pac is…
I got HBO...
….looking to kill 45 mins of dead air.
Who’ll bet against this?
"Respond intelligently even to unintelligent treatment."
-Lao Tzu
Pac by decision
In a very close fight. I think we’re talking like splitting the 12 rounds with a 10-8 round because of a knock down deciding the fight.
Pick
Pacquiao UD 12 – The memory that I can’t shake of Ricky Hatton is the major troubles he had in spots of the Lazcano fight. I just thought that Hatton was too much of a punching bag in that fight and maybe he was seeing some skill and speed erosion. This for a guy who was never in the top eschelon of speed or skill guy to begin with.
I was convinced that Malignaggi was a nightmare matchup for him. I couldn’t have been more wrong and my bank account took a major hit for it.
Still, I don’t think Hatton deals well with speed and he’s going to see some fast hands tomorrow night. If this is going to be a distance fight, Manny’s point scoring is going to be the distance. Every time he unleashes the left hand, I think he will bank brownie points with the judges.
The concern for a Pacman backer would be Hatton’s bodywork. I have faith in Mr. Trainer of the Year that he will have Manny prepared for Hatton’s attempt at body shots. Compounded with that, I expect Pacquiao’s sharp shots to the head will keep Hatton from ever establishing a solid momentum building attack to the ribcage.
Then comes the news today that Hatton is looking into firing Mayweather Sr. and bringing aboard Roach. If that doesn’t scream of setting up an excuse, I don’t know what does. Hatton’s a true professional but you wonder if in the back of his mind if he isn’t sure if he will be at his best tomorrow night. Anything less than his best and Manny will pounce. I expect Hatton to fight gamely and well and I think he will be competitive enough to make it twelve hard rounds of action.
This time, the quicker, sharper, better prepared fighter will come out on top.
I bet Arum and DLH were not pleased with Chicago forcing a Game 7 for tomorrow night. I’ll be at the Garden tomorrow night and will be forced to watch this one on the DVR. Enjoy it everyone.
My pick...
I was going with Pacquiao UD 12, but if you check the standings, I suck at this. So, I asked my wife, who has virtually no clue about boxing (in fairness, she could probably tell you my favorite fighters are Cotto and Pavlik). She picked Pacquiao SD 12 (after I explained to her the difference between a Unanimous and Split decision). So, we’re going with….
Pacquiao SD 12
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
Hatton under 9 rds TKO....
if it goes past 9, Pac-Man should get the KO win.
This is a great site btw.
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