Official Picks for Williams-Wright and Arreola-McCline
by Scott Christ on Apr 9, 2009 6:07 AM EDT
in Boxing Fight Previews
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Here we go again on our own...
This weekend's HBO World Championship Boxing doubleheader will just be part of a night of the sweet science on the network.
At 8pm, the documentary Thrilla in Manila will air for the first time ever. The fight has been talked to death over the last three decades, but HBO has a keen eye for quality sports documentary/etc. programming, so I really expect it to be nothing less than excellent.
At 9:30, the new "24/7" series covering Hatton-Pacquiao airs its debut episode. And then at 10 we head to Vegas for live fights. Should be a fun night for fight fans.
Let's get pickin'.
Paul Williams v. Winky Wright (Middleweights, 12 Rounds)
This one is a pain to try to predict. Winky Wright is unquestionably the best fighter Paul Williams has ever faced -- period. Paul has some good wins (Margarito, Quintana, Verno, etc.) but nobody who's headed to the Hall as Winky likely is. These are two of the decade's most avoided fighters. Winky couldn't get anyone to fight him before Shane Mosley took the challenge and lost twice to Wright. Since the second Mosley win in November 2004, Wright has fought just five times, though, going 3-1-1. He's beaten and embarrassed Tito Trinidad, beaten Sam Soliman, drawn with Jermain Taylor, beaten an old Ike Quartey and lost to Bernard Hopkins. Nothing to be ashamed of with the loss and the draw -- B-Hop is a legend and Taylor was middleweight champion of hte world -- but those are really his three wins since November 2004. Blown-up Tito, journeyman Soliman, and washed-up Bazooka Quartey.
Williams has turned into half a damn barnstormer since emphatically knocking the crap out of Quintana to avenge his one pro loss, fighting Andy Kolle at middleweight and Verno Phillips at 154 pounds because he couldn't get anyone else to fight him.
As always, Williams' 82" reach is going to be a big deal. It's not even that Williams uses it as effectively as he could; he's just as good if not better fighting in close than he is at a distance. It's just that the other guy always has to take it into account. If Williams starts firing a long jab, you have to be prepared for it, or he keeps guys at bay all night long in theory. The longest guy Winky's ever fought was Taylor (78" reach), followed by Bernard (75" reach). He had trouble with both of them, which I'm only noting because it's true, not becaue they're at all similar to Williams.
Williams, on the other hand, has never looked comfortable fighting fellow southpaws. Carlos Quintana gave him hell in their first fight but Williams was able to get him out quick in the rematch. That big ferocious assault in the second fight was no coincidence, I don't think. Williams knew he couldn't let Quintana get his timing down again or it'd be another long night.
Since we've been talking chins lately, Winky's has never shown any issue. He also just doesn't get hit clean very often. His guard is exceptionally tight, even famously so. He'll block all night long. Block and jab, block and jab, the Winky Wright formula. Wink's idea will be to slow Williams down, same as it's been in almost all of his other big fights. Williams has to break right, which is a tall order.
I feel like writing a Bill Plaschke column with this fight. "In one locker room, the young champion, confident, poised, loose, dreaming of bigger days to come. In the other locker room, the old fighter, stoic, focused, remembering bigger days past." And then the young / old thing goes on for several more alleged paragraphs.
I have no idea about this fight, because Winky Wright's been gone so long it's half a mystery how he'll look, how he'll fight, what sort of shape he's in, what kind of gas tank he has left, if he really wants it anymore, and so on. With that on my head, I have to side with youth. But it won't be easy. Williams SD-12
Chris Arreola v. Jamee McCline (Heavyweights, 12 Rounds)
To further illustrate just how long Williams is, Jameel McCline is a 6'6", 270ish-pound man. His reach is exactly the same as P-Will's.
This is a fight between a couple of fellas who -- all due respect on both sides -- don't exactly go around missing meals in camp. "Big Time" McCline is 38 years old and coming off of a 12-round decision win over knockaround guy Mike Mollo last November in one of the WBC's countless eliminator fights. He hasn't been a legit contender in years and it doesn't figure he'll ever be one again.
Arreola, 28, really needs to be impressive this time out. He showed some chinks in the armor against enthusiastic slugger Travis Walker in his last fight, going down in the second round under a furious assault from Walker before storming back to end it mightily in the third frame. If Arreola has problems with the big man this Saturday, I can't really foresee him ever being a heavyweight force.
Dedication has been his main issue so far. He's got real power, he sits down on punches fairly well when he puts the effort in, and he's shown he knows how to finish a fight. He also has a legit amateur background; the guy can box a little. But his weight has fluctuated wildly. At 6'4", he started his career around 235-240 pounds. He got down to a career-low 229 in 2006 when he fought Damian Wills. The last two fights he's been a sloppy-looking 258 1/2 and 254 pounds. That 258 is a 30-pound jump from the Wills fight. If he got himself down to 230-235, he could be really dangerous. But he admittedly slacks off.
I don't think he'll have much trouble with McCline, yet another in a string of hand-picked showcase opponents. HBO is invested in his short-term future at the very least. Jameel, pretty likeable guy that he is, is just there to make the younger guy look good. He probably hasn't been told that, though. Arreola TKO-6, but I do think McCline will have some moments that make Arreola really turn it on
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Picks
Williams UD-12
I don’t think that Williams can be slowed. He will simply out work Wright but I doubt he ever has him in much trouble.
Arreola KO-8
Even if McCline somehow hurts Chris he lacks a killer instinct and Chris showed heart in his last fight getting up and winning by KO. McCline is talking about trying to fight like Wlad and Vitali so it might be a decent tune up for a future fight for him.
Dinks Picks
Williams UD 12
I bet against Hopkins & Mosely in there last fights. I should of had faith in the old guard. Im getting older myself…But i just cant see Winky outpointing Williams at this stage of his life. And thats a long lay off..Kind of hope im wrong.
Arreola KO 5
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Underground you got to go there...
Picks
Williams MD 12 – He’ll have problems with Winky, but the difference in activity rate should be the difference. Winky of 5 years ago destroys Williams.
Arreola UD. I think McCline will hurt Arreola early, but McCline just has one of those sparring partner mentalities where he’s just trying to survive. Arreola will come in, still out of shape, and will try to knock out McCline, but after about the 8th round this could be an extremely ugly fight, with both guys completely gassed.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
My picks;
Williams TKO-8
If he really goes after Winky, he’ll smash him around. I think Winky goes, but maybe on a RSF rather than going to the canvas.
Arreola SD-12
Boring, crap fight where Arreola is busier but ultimately uneffective against a massive, slow, lumbering McCline.
Boxing is the beginning of all sports. I'm willing to bet that the first sport was a man against another man in a fight. (Omar Epps)
I meant;
Arreola UD-12.
Not sure if it makes any difference with regard to KO picks….
On that note, is a ‘decision’ win a KO, regardless of MD, SD, or UD distinctions? I would love to see Brickhaus’ prediction of MD come right, simply cos it’s a brave shout if he loses out on a KO if it is a UD, etc.
Boxing is the beginning of all sports. I'm willing to bet that the first sport was a man against another man in a fight. (Omar Epps)
No. It’s UD and then MD/SD count as the same thing. But a UD call on a MD/SD won’t net you a KO. I think there’s something to be said for the difference between those.
I also think you’ve taken the most realistic stance on Arreola-McCline. “This heavyweight fight could be exciting!” [six rounds later] “Well this sucks.”
"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler
My Prediction Debut!
Williams – UD 12
Winky has never fought a guy with Williams’ work rate. Problem with Williams is he tends to slap instead of punch, but his slaps probably hurt more than Winky’s best punch. Quintana matched Williams’ work rate and didn’t jab his way through like we know Winky will.
Arreola UD 12
It’s painful to watch Jameel McCline fight. Just give me Arreola winning easily while I sleep.
SSR's NFL Fun Fact: Andy Reid is the only coach in the league who uses the pass to set up the pass.
Two comments
One – Sam Soliman has a workrate similar to Williams, although Soliman did give Winky some problems.
Two – Don’t expect Williams’ workrate at middleweight to be like it was at welterweight. The extra 13 pounds of muscle makes a huge difference in the amount of oxygen the body consumes, and thus his stamina shouldn’t be nearly as good there. His workrate has been down generally since the Margarito fight anyway.
I still think he’ll outwork Winky though. Winky might throw as many punches, but they’ll mostly be defensive jabs.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
"but they’ll mostly be defensive jabs"
Next up, Brick tells us that the Pope is, after all, a Catholic…..
:)
Boxing is the beginning of all sports. I'm willing to bet that the first sport was a man against another man in a fight. (Omar Epps)
picks
williams ud – i’m not really confident in this pick. i think winky can easily frustrate him for every round and win a ud. williams although his potential is through the roof, hasn’t showed up for every fight so hes a guy i won’t really bank on until he changes his ways.
arreola ud – don’t have much confidence in this one either. arreola looked pretty vulnerable in his last fight and showed a real lack of defense. mccline is a guy who can exploit that but again mccline hasn’t really shown up for any fight other than the peter fight in a while. he seems to have embraced the opponent or gatekeeper role.
so yea, definetly not fights i would bet on and fights i wouldn’t be surprised if both my picks lose. should be an interesting night.
I think Winky has a great chance too
Carlos Quintana gave Williams tons of trouble. Winky is bigger, stronger, and better than Quintana, and can sit in the pocket and counter just as well as Quintana did. If Williams hasn’t learned anything since the first Quintana fight, and if Winky still has gas left in the tank, I could see Williams getting dominated here. I’m just betting that Winky doesn’t have enough left in the tank that he’s able to pull the trigger like he should.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Only two picks for Wright so far? Is this wisdom or herd mentality?
Whatever it is, I think it’s crazy. Agreed: anytime a fighter takes as much time off as Wright has, it could signal trouble. But this is an unknowable wildcard. What do we really know? For one, Wright has more at stake in this fight than Williams, and he’s surely aware of it. A loss for Wright signals the end of his long career. A loss for young Paul Williams to a wily veteran like Wright will be easily overlooked.
Paul has the goods. He has always had the athletic goods. But he has demonstrated immaturity and hubris in the ring, and if there is a whiff of those qualities in the air for this fight, Winky is just the man to take advantage of them.
The last time an aging veteran took on a younger, much-touted whipper-snapper, I went with the veteran, and Shane Mosley came through for me. I’m banking on the same happening again.
Then there’s the fact that it’s no fun being in second place. Hopefully, Jrok will go with the more favored fighter, and I will have a shot at retaking first. If I am wrong, I will still probably be in second.
For all of these reasons, Wright by UD.
Oh, and Arreola by UD in a stinker.
Wright SD 12- I can’t pick against the Winksman, in a lefty vs lefty, you gotta look at who’s got the better jab and that’s Winky. Wright also has the better defense and is much bigger and stronger than Verno Phillips. The layoff does weigh heavily on my mind, but the old men have been coming up 21 lately, to use a dumb overused pun.
Arreola-TKO 10- Slugfest turns to hugfest after a few rounds and Mccline is stopped due to excessive fatigue. I really wanted to pick Mccline, because Arreola just carries too much blubber around that midsection. But Mccline’s 38 and never really has been much of a talent. I may be picking old man Winkle over Williams, but Winky’s been to the top of the mountain with first class skills. Jameel just doesn’t have the first rate toolbox to dust off in order to pull the veteran upset.
Winky UD
Arreola TKO 5
The Dude Abides
by battle axe of doom on Apr 9, 2009 7:41 PM EDT reply actions
My first picks
Williams in a UD
Arreola TKO 9
I do think Williams gets a little frustrated with Winky and loses a few rounds though.As for Arreola he should eventually wear down McCline with his aggression.
Williams UD… Ring rust will be too much and I have a feeling that Winky will make this fight bowling shoe ugly.
Arreola KO9th… Arreola gets knocked down early due to his stupidity by testing his power.
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
Paul Williams UD — I’m not too confident about this at all, but 2 years is a very, very long time out to come back and immediately face a top 10 pfp guy. However, as SC indicated, his defensive game will have deteriorated less than most, so it could be very close.
Arreola UD — no matter how bad the division gets, it’s crappy fights still get tv exposure in the states. File this one with the rest
Here we Go
Williams – UD. I think Winky will have to get a few rounds in before he gets his timing in again and will block most of Williams early shots. Towards the mid rounds Winky will get inside with body shots to wear out Williams and winning few rounds but as it goes into the later rounds Williams will still have abit left in the tank to keep Winky off and take the rounds as Winky slows down.
Arreola – UD. Another heavy weight bore
My Picks....
Jumping back in after a long absence
Wright SD 12 – I really, really, really want Williams to win this fight. But, I’ve been burned too many times by Winky to pick against him. I think he’ll frustrate Williams like Quintana did in their first fight, and, as strange as this sounds against a guy with a heavyweight reach, keep him outside with the jab. I really want to be wrong.
Arreola KO 8 – I’m picking a later KO than most. I think McCline’s experience will allow him to evade Arreola’s big flurries early. I think this fight is going to get ugly about round 5 or 6. Both guys will be gassed. Arreola will decide he wants to go home during Rd. 8, and scores a one-punch KO.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
Williams KO 11
Arreola KO 4
Williams- Wright is one of those fights that has so many “ifs” and “buts” in it , that the guys who pick correctly will look like geniuses and the ones who picked wrong will feel like idiots. The truth is, we’re probably all idiots. Here is how much of an idiot I am: I think Winky will get stopped, either in the ring or on his stool late in the fight. Besides all of the usual grumbling about Winky’s age and inactivity, I’ll add that I cannot even recall the last time Winky fought a southpaw, nevermind a tall, strong powerful one. Anyway, I think that Williams is going to be the bridge too far, and that we will see Winky finally stopped (or retired on his stool), and that he’ll be badly cut in the process. But then again…. durrrr, uh, I dunno.
"I want to see ocean. I want to see black people. I want to see palms." - Wladimir Klitschko
Ice's picks
(Sorry to have to put these in at the last minute again. She says it slipped her mind and she couldn’t remember her password.)
Williams UD
McCline TKO 8
I tried to laugh at her about McCline, but then she had to go and bring up Peter. If she makes me feel dumb here, we are breaking up. I get custody of “the chair.”
"I want to see ocean. I want to see black people. I want to see palms." - Wladimir Klitschko
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