I generally  don't like conspiracy theories.  They are usually half-baked, full of holes and require an almost godlike resistance to rational thought.   But in Boxing, like no other sport, even the most far-fetched conspiracy theories have at least a solid 25% chance of being true, and particularly when the strangeness happens before the bell rings.  And when it comes to Chageav-Valuev and Klitschko-Haye morphing into Klitschko-Chageav, I would be lying to myself if I said a few theories haven't crossed my mind in the last 36 hours.  I don't really believe any single one of them, but history tells me that none of them are so completely implausible that they can be ruled out.

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Conspiracy #1.  Haye Chickened Out

This theory is the least complicated, most obvious one.  It struck me the moment I realized that not only was no specific injury cited and no medical report released, but that neither of these things were going to happen in time to be a factor into negotiating a new date for the fight.  After all, an unspecified back strain that will take less than three weeks to fully heal isn't exactly something that is going to show up on an MRI or X-Ray... it's a symptomatic thing, based completely on Haye's word.  Given that this is an injury would be relatively easy to fake, it could be that David Haye simply didn't feel he'd be ready to win on June 20th.  

That doesn't even mean he is a "wimp," by the way.   It just means that when push came to shove, he really didn't feel ready for this fight. Maybe his camp went wrong or he felt his trainer was too inexperienced.   The "foam Wlad arm" for instance, set off some alarm bells for me.   There is also the (completely unverified) rumor floating around that Kali Meehan knocked Haye out in sparring practice, and that this setback has Camp David thinking that he really needs more rounds with heavyweights before he can stand up to Wlad's firepower.  Whatever the case, it certainly happens that guys lose that self-assured confidence in the run up to the biggest fight of their careers, particularly when the smart money is saying that they will be KO'ed in short order.  The mind is a lonely prison.

But this theory by itself would require a huge leap of faith in terms of Haye's inability to gauge risk-reward.  Without any other mitigating factors, Haye would be forfeiting an immense amount of cash and credibility for the short term gain of (perhaps) avoiding an exposure and physical beating at Wlad's hands.  He wouldn't only need to have jitters... his composure and confidence would have to have been completely shattered by one or more events in camp, leading him to believe that he'd not only lose, but that he'd be so thoroughly and easily swept aside that his reputation would never recover.  That sort of reckoning and self-doubt seems well beyond a man like Haye, who's risen to the top ranks of his cruiserweight division even after a tremendous setback at the hands of Carl Thompson.  Frankly I don't buy it... certainly not as a sole factor.  Not a chance.

Conspiracy #2.  Haye Smells a Better Offer

This theory requires a little more skulduggery:  It might be that Haye is not discouraged at all, but rather sensed a better opportunity arise in the collapse of the WBA Finnish fight.   When Valuev and Chageav - two unarguably weaker titlists - were suddenly available, it could be that Haye wanted to see if he could segway his noteriety into a shot at one of their titles with a more productive camp later this summer.  The calculation would be that if Haye was beaten by Wlad it would seriously -- maybe even mortally --- wound his stock and negotiating power in future heavyweight fights.  Really, it would alter his career completely, since as a still unknown quantity he can guarantee a fairly confident draw.  

But if he could squeeze himself into the WBA clown car (Valuev, Chageav, Ruiz, Holyfield), Haye could spend as much as 18 months building up his bank account and heavyweight experience with that crew, and then he could still meet-cute with Wlad or Vitali down the road for a unification fight.  Since time is the advantage of the young ,the intervening period could see a number a things happening, including damaging losses by one or both Klitschko brothers... or, at the very least, their gradual decline in ability due to age and wear.  It's possible, according to this theory, that Haye has even been in discussion with a certain high-haired individual in the wake of the WBA cancellation that encouraged this line of thought.   In fact, if someone offered him to a shot at Valuev in July-August, he'd probably be "dumb" not to take it... it's the safe bet and almost guarantees a much longer, more lucrative career.

Conspiracy #3.  Haye Took Step-Aside Money

Even more so than the last, this theory really rides the edge of "Get the bleep outta here," since it requires the mind of a Dr. Moriarty and reflexes of a cat to pull off.  The idea here is:  The breakdown of Chageav-Valuev was completely unforeseen, but the moment it happened Camp Wlad saw an opportunity to clean up the WBA and moved Heaven and Earth to make it happen. 

The far-reaching consequences are clear.   Wlad - like any other decent human being who loves the sport - has been vocal about his disgust with the WBA sideshow, and particularly with its poster child "The Gentle Giant."  Wlad has talked extensively about his disdain for Valuev and his desire to take his title away.  In doing so, Wlad doesn't just take over Nick's share of the European Heavyweight market... he becomes that market.  By setting aside Haye for the time being with a little "incentive money" - and a handshake agreement that they will still meet once Wlad sorts out Chageav - Wlad could be attempting to bump off the Chageav Bishop defending Valuev's Pawn. 

This could potentially result in a "coup-de-grace" that sees Wlad beating Chageav and, with his newly gained WBA Super Champion status, forcing Valuev into a WBA standoff.   Its also possible that a title fight with Vitali before the end of the year was dangled in front of Haye to sweeten the pot even more, while Wlad sorts out Chageav and Povetikin, and corners Valuev.  Based on how stationary Vitali looked against Gomez, Haye and Booth may actually believe they have a better chance against Vitali anyway.  And a win for Haye there would guarantee that when Haye and Klitschko meet it wouldn't only be the biggest fight in the Heavyweight division, but would also be the most meaningful big man fight we've seen since Lewis-Vitali (which, ironically, was itself a replacement.) 

In any case, this would be a very difficult 'everyone wins" sort of scenario, requiring precise timing and total cooperation from both sides.  But, on the other hand, it would also benefit from exactly the sort of direct cooperation that Haye, as a fighter-promoter, is uniquely qualified to provide.

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I mean, there are other theories that have crossed my mind, and even some blurry fusions of the above three.  The big reason I am still entertaining any of them is that Haye's camp has so far acted so... weird... about this injury. 

Taking him as a counter-example, when Vitali was injured, there were specifics galore.  When he injured his back, for instance, his camp released a medical statement describing the bone spur that was compacting a nerve in his back, and detailed the procedure that would have to be done to correct it. When his knee was injured, an MRI was released and it was also described in full (a torn meniscus and old MCL tear)... and he had extensive surgery for that as well. Haye says "My back hurts. Sorry. I hurt it somehow, in training. Can we hold off on that whole heavyweight championship thing for a few weeks while I undergo some vague form of physical therapy? My back probably won't hurt by then."  I'm not saying it's supspicious, necessarily, but it doesn't exactly put you at ease either.  Neither does the seemingly miraculous timing of Chageav and Valuev vs. the almighty "T.B.A."

Of course, it's also highly possible that all of this is sheer coincidence.  It's entirely possible that Haye suffered a mild but  legitimate muscle strain that, while not completely debilitating or exteme enough to show up on a visual medical test, is still serious enough that his doctor advises him to hold off strenuous activity for a couple of weeks.  But that's the least fun version of what just happened... that's like saying Lee Harvey acted alone, without help from the Mafia, the Cubans, Elvis Presley or the Ghost of Emma Goldman. 

But, you know... Stranger things have happened.

What do you guys think?