CompuBox: Learning from Marquez-Diaz

by Scott Christ on Sep 17, 2009 9:25 AM EDT in Boxing Fight Previews

Yesterday, we took a look at the CompuBox numbers of Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s last five fights, and how even in a sport that isn't driven by stats, someone like Floyd comes through in the numbers. Today, CompuBox is kind enough to send along an analysis of Juan Manuel Marquez's last fight, his February knockout win and 2009 Fight of the Year contender against Juan Diaz.

Analyzing the numbers (or trying to, anyway):

Marquez going 32/81 per round was up from 17/50 in his last five fights. As JMM has gotten older, he's gotten more and more offensive-minded, and the fight with Diaz saw him display what I'd even call average (at best) defense. Part of this likely came from the fact that Diaz is feather-fisted, and Marquez knew he could win a shootout. But that's a big leap in style, adding over 30 punches thrown per round.
Also in his previous seven fights, Marquez had landed 38% of his power punches, a good number but nowhere near the heat-seeking missile stat that is 47% power punches landed against Diaz. The fight was a war, and Mayweather isn't likely to oblige that sort of fight, but if Floyd really thinks he's that much bigger, stronger, faster, hey, you never know.
Marquez's punch stats in the Diaz fight are incredibly good, even though defensively he wasn't so hot. It is what it is, and I say again he and Nacho Beristain aren't going to fight Floyd the way they did Diaz, and if they try to, well, good luck. But if Marquez is going to have a shot in this fight, I think he hast to at least find a healthy middle ground between the 17/50 per round he landed for five fights and the 32/81 he bombed out against Juan Diaz. As much as Mayweather says that coming forward, throwing punches, and attacking the body isn't the way to beat him since others have tried that, trying and finding success are two different things. It's what I think Marquez will at least try early on.
If whatever he does doesn't work, remember that Marquez is arguably the best in the game when it comes to switching it up on the fly. He adapts to his opponents incredibly well.

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SC, you and Brick have just been doing some work around here lately. Every time I check back there’s about 10 new things to read. Great, great stuff and it’s much appreciated. Keep up the good work.

by kp the ghost on Sep 17, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

Great Article, The Diaz fight was an absolute barnstormer, and I hope the Mayweather fight is as exciting – for that to happen Floyd needs a brain transplant or Marquez seriously needs to turn on the gas.

Still, get my prediction in now:
Mayweather TKO 10 – after Marquez has asked him a few questions he hasn’t be asked before.

You round by rounding it SC?

"Chris Eubank lost his recent comeback fight on points ... the main one being that he's a total git."

by bazzlad on Sep 17, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions

of course

Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes

by Scott Christ on Sep 17, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

great work

love the site, excellent, professional coverage during the lead-up to a fight that i just can’t get into because of the size difference, but the flood of articles certainly makes this matchup more compelling on paper

by toodiesel on Sep 17, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

hey, happy to do it

Thanks for the kind words. If you don’t plan on order, we’ll have live coverage that updates faster than anybody else’s on Saturday night. Mere seconds after the bell sounds in any given round, that round’s summary will be up.

Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes

by Scott Christ on Sep 17, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah trying and doing are def different…no doubt PBF will have on his Track N Field shoes for this one. any word on how big the ring is? i’m sure part of negotiations ensured not only was he fighting a guy who’s going up a weight class or two in size, but also a larger ring.

any word on a listing of where to see the fights nationwide on closed-circuit? i heard about theaters,but sports bars and such?

Gatti. Dekkers. Pele. Aoki. Kang. Vanderlei.
http://theworldsoldestsport.blogspot.com/

by theworldsoldestsport on Sep 17, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions