CompuBox: Plus-Minus for Mayweather-Marquez

by Scott Christ on Sep 18, 2009 4:34 AM EDT in Boxing Fight Previews

Previous CompuBox reports for Mayweather-Marquez:

Fighter	Overall Conn. %	Opp. Conn. %	+/- Rating
Floyd Mayweather Jr.	43%	16%	+27
Vitali Klitschko	47%	21%	+26
Chris Arreola	53%	28%	+25
Joshua Clottey	37%	21%	+16
Juan Manuel Lopez	42%	27%	+15
Shane Mosley	35%	22%	+13
Wladimir Klitschko	40%	29%	+11
Manny Pacquiao	34%	24%	+10
Winky Wright	31%	21%	+10
Miguel Cotto	38%	29%	+9
Juan Diaz	35%	27%	+8
Juan Manuel Marquez	36%	29%	+7
Chad Dawson	36%	29%	+7
Alfredo Angulo	33%	26%	+7
Bernard Hopkins	30%	27%	+3
Paul Williams	26%	24%	+2
Paulie Malignaggi	27%	27%	even
Antonio Margarito	31%	31%	even
Kermit Cintron	31%	35%	-4
Kelly Pavlik	30%	36%	-6

Plus/minus rating determined by subtracting opponent’s connect pct. from listed fighter’s overall connect pct., which includes jab connect pct. & power punch connect pct.

Number is measured over the last five fights for each man

Mayweather's No. 1 rating with this stat is absolutely no surprise, but look at the way he does it: That 16% opponents' connect rate is far and away the lowest on this list. The next-lowest is 21%, coming from Vitali Klitschko, Winky Wright and Joshua Clottey, three very good defensive fighters. Mayweather rips them all, while also landing 43% of his own shots, a number topped only by Chris Arreola (53%) and Vitali (47%). Juan Manuel Lopez is also at 42%, meaning Mayweather's connect rate is in the range of three guys who are knockout artists and considered offensive masters.
As an aside, this also makes me pretty excited for a Vitali-Arreola slugfest next week.
Marquez is more or less middle of the pack, with a number (+7) that has faded over time. The last five fights of his career have been against Marco Antonio Barrera, Rocky Juarez, Manny Pacquiao, Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz. In all but the Juarez fight, Marquez has taken some significant damage, and I felt every single one of them besides the Juarez fight was pretty damn close, until either it ended at the cards (Barrera, Pacquiao) or Marquez finished it (Casamayor, Diaz). If you looked at this fight purely with these numbers, then added in the concerns about size difference, Marquez frankly is living on a prayer. It's unlikely he's going to abandon -- or be able to abandon -- this style change. He's a genuine warrior now, on par with any in the sport, including Pacquiao, Israel Vazquez and his own brother, Rafael.
Another aside: Juan Diaz was at +23 before the Nate Campbell fight.

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Comments

Mayweather is a true beast. I don’t care what anyone says. It’s the truth.

Mayweather has fought thirteen champions. Beaten all thirteen. Fourteen wins against them.

His longest inactivity time was 244 days. While it’ll have been 681 days between fights for Floyd by the night of the 19th, I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. The time off has surely helped him get his hands back to what they once were. And while people make a big deal about Floyd having the layoff, how much have the wars Marquez has been in taken a toll on his body (and mind)? Marquez is four years older. He’s fought 124 more rounds. He’s taken some vicious shots and somehow survived. At what point do those finally catch up with him?

I like Marquez as a person but Mayweather is just too good for him. As Roger said, Marquez is good but Floyd is great. And that’s the difference in the fight.

http://twitter.com/FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Sep 18, 2009 4:58 AM EDT reply actions