It's hard to really compare historical stats for Vitali Klitschko and Chris Arreola given that Klitschko is a massive step up in competition for Arreola, and that Klitschko's career has a part one and a part two, the latter just two fights old. So with some help from CompuBox, let's look at the last two fights for each man by the numbers.
Bad Left Hook Analysis: Arreola's punch output in these two fights wasn't so hot, and remember that he had to come off the canvas under big pressure from Travis Walker, who threw over 100 punches in the first round. Walker forced Arreola to take a knee, but at the same time, that was probably the best thing for Arreola to do right then. He forced Walker to back off, got to clear his head, and got an eight-count to figure out what he wanted to do. He wound up coming back to dust Walker in short order.
The Jameel McCline fight was tough to take anything from. Sure, Jameel is a big, tall heavyweight, just like Vitali, but that's where the similarities end. McCline does not have near Vitali's skill set or big power, and to be honest, McCline seemed like he was there to pick up a paycheck and move on down the line. Once Arreola put him down, that was it. Both of them seemed gassed by the time they finished the three-plus rounds of fighting they had; Klitschko will not have that sort of stamina or desire issue.
As for Vitali, he flat-out dominated Sam Peter, but Juan Carlos Gomez was dominated simply because he seemed like he came to stink out the joint and try to win that way.
Neither of them have faced a guy like the man that will be on the other side; for Klitschko, at least not recently, as he's certainly faced better fighters in the past, and even guys who probably wanted to be as aggressive. For Arreola, I really think his chances ride on how Vitali's back feels. He came out CLEARLY stiff against Gomez, but Gomez didn't take advantage of it. If Arreola can convince himself to probably just forget the jab and see if he can't get at Klitschko hard and fast, he's got a great chance, and that takes into account Vitali's rock-solid chin. If Vitali simply can't move away from an onslaught or get his jab really pumping to deter one, he could be in trouble.
Right now, I just can't see Arreola beating Vitali, but stranger things have certainly happened. We'll have much more on this fight in the coming days, and then live, round-by-round coverage and analysis during the fight on Saturday night.