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The Other Side of the Coin: Potential letdown for Mayweather-Marquez buys

(AP Photo/Isaac Brekken)

(AP Photo/Isaac Brekken)

Since we've talked a lot about the potential mass success that's floating around as a projection for the pay-per-views sold this past Saturday, it really is only only fair that tonight we talk about the other possible outcome.

What if it's a more normal number, even if it's what would have been considered a success? Has the talk that has floated now ruined what would have been seen as a nice result for this fight?

Yahoo's Kevin Iole has been the source in the media for every rumor and report you've seen out there referencing the great success of the show, as projected by sources that are high up and would have an idea. The first report was just a blurb in Iole's MMA mailbag about the success of the head-to-head shows on Saturday, and this is what he had to say:

The UFC is a privately owned company and does not have to release its pay-per-view sales, which it chooses not to do. Occasionally, we’re able to find out what a particular fight sold, but it’s not often. From what I’m hearing, though, the Mayweather fight had a convincing victory. I’m hearing the Mayweather-Marquez pay-per-view is going to come in at or near 1 million sales. I don’t have a verifiable figure for the UFC, but I believe it will be far lower than 1 million. The boxing number should be released by Thursday at the latest and perhaps on Wednesday.

Later last night, I got in touch with Kevin and asked if he had any follow-up. He said then that he was hearing it could go as high as 1.6 million when all is said and done, and to expect an official announcement today or tomorrow. He also Tweeted about it. One million buys, he said, was "definite" according to his sources. Today's business hours have passed, and nothing has come from HBO, Golden Boy, "Mayweather Promotions" or anyone else.

Now, that in itself means nothing. There's still all of tomorrow while they get things together, and if I had to guess, they're going to throw in every buy they can count, from cable/dish orders and the 230-theater strong movie screen campaign. It'll all mash in, even though the theater customers didn't have to pay $50 and what have you.

As we talked about earlier, initial giddiness about PPV buys often tempers off into more realistic, more sensible territory. In May, Bob Arum was telling everyone who would listen that Hatton-Pacquiao did 1.6-2 million buys on pay-per-view, and it did, according to Dan Rafael, about 825-850,000 in the States. This was still an outstanding number.

We all find the projected numbers stunning, believe me, and I said earlier today that I remained skeptical. We talked about it because it's good discussion. Kevin Iole himself told me that the numbers he was hearing were, to him, "shocking."

I can say this: The numbers I've heard tonight are a far cry from that 1.6 million high-end estimate.

But again: None of this is official. It's speculation, it's people talking, and it's discussion fodder. If a number doesn't come out tomorrow, start getting really skeptical.

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Well, if Lole is the primary source I have to admit that I am a little wary. Then again, I trust Scott pretty implicitly so if you think Lole is really getting the scoop then the story has at least a few legs to it.

If we are being taken for a ride at this point, I figure it will be more about boxing competing with boxing (or, even, Mayweather competing with himself). It doesn’t sound like it is boxing competing with MMA for the evening. I would bet that May-Marquez beat the MMA card by a decent margin, at the very least. Not saying that’s “good” but it can’t really be bad.

"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb

by jrok on Sep 23, 2009 10:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well lole on his twitter responded to someone and said he was 100% sure it did 1mil…

by AllDayBoxing on Sep 23, 2009 11:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Kevin’s been totally consistent with what he’s said. The number I’ve heard tonight isn’t far off from 1 mil, but it’s not 1.6. His sources and connections, admittedly, are far better than mine.

Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes

by SC on Sep 23, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t care about the boxing v. MMA popularity debate. I think that’s a loser for boxing in the long run, unfortunately.

I just want boxing to be successful, high quality, and accessible. I think good PPV numbers are a bottom line for the continued survival and viability of boxing as a professional sport. At this point I will be disappointed if the numbers aren’t equal or greater than 1mil. I didn’t have that expectation going in, but the ‘rumors’ have me going frankly.

"I swear to God, I'll take this ******* ball and shove it down your ******* throat" - Serena Williams

by lcollins1 on Sep 23, 2009 11:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn’t be disappointed if the numbers were 700K… that would be a real good haul for this fight! It’s still kind of irks me that the REALLY GOOD fights aren’t being made and doing these kind of number, because that’s where I see Boxing’s true renaissance coming from… a really good, well-matched fight that people pay for. It will happen one of these days, if the promoters let it.

"This fight'll be the nastiest thing you'll ever see. I been sober for six weeks, and that makes me vicious."
-- Randall 'Tex' Cobb

by jrok on Sep 23, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah… I honestly didn’t expect a million buys…

I think I kinda lost the general feel of the public on this fight going into the PPV.

It wasn’t until I was at Wingstog waiting 30 mins to just pick up my order that I realized how big the fight was going to be.

"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."

by Zocalo on Sep 23, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The fight picked up major steam late in the week. I gathered that just from gauging the buzz online. I didn’t see it coming. It was like all of a sudden, people really cared about the fight.

Bad Left Hook
"Well Howie, I think I'm going to stay outside and outjab him." -- Tex Cobb telling Howard Cosell how he would approach Larry Holmes

by SC on Sep 24, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep

this happened to me. loathed this fight, but when friday and saturday morning came along i started getting the pre-mega fight jitters. had the shakes real bad when the fight itself started

The Dude Abides

by battle axe of doom on Sep 24, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cautiously optimistic

Before the fight I thought buys would be around 825K. After the fight and the rumors I still think buys will be around 825K. I ignore one source numbers, but when a couple come out and say similar numbers then do I start believing rumors. I’m hoping for not too bad for the fight, and I hope execs take the right message make good undercards!

by waldo47 on Sep 24, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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