Fight Talk: Miguel Cotto-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Sergio Martinez-Andy Lee, Robert Guerrero, More
by Scott Christ on Nov 30, 2010 4:42 PM EST
in Boxing News Analysis
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Since all of this can go into one dandy post and y'all can react accordingly in a big lump sum, let's just do it this way.
The Fight: Miguel Cotto v. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Status: Dead for Now
Though in an earlier thread I did say I expected that Cotto and Chavez would meet in March with Chavez pulling out of his Saturday fight with Pawel Wolak, Bob Arum tells BoxingScene.com's Rick Reeno that that isn't the plan now. Arum says he wants Chavez to have a couple of fights at 154 pounds before he matches him with Cotto, which is pretty normal promoter spin since everyone was all gung-ho about Cotto-Chavez in December before Cotto decided to take the rest of 2010 off. This could mean a few things. It could mean Top Rank could shoot for a Cotto-Margarito fight earlier than expected. Top Rank would love to have Cotto fight in June during the Puerto Rican Day Parade festivities in New York, and either Margarito or Chavez would be perfect opponents for that, but I'm guessing Cotto won't want to sit out all the way until June, which would mean a year out of the ring for him. There's always the chance he could defend his 154-pound trinket against a relative patsy on a Top Rank PPV, too, instead of looking for a more "legit" opponent on HBO. Top Rank could give him Pawel Wolak. They've done mismatches with Cotto (Alfonso Gomez, Michael Jennings) during his peak years before, so it wouldn't really be anything new.
The Fight: Sergio Martinez v. Andy Lee
Status: Possible
This comes from Michael Marley, who says that Martinez's promoter Lou DiBella and Lee's trainer-manager Emanuel Steward are both on board with the idea. It would happen in March. It wouldn't be much of a fight for Martinez on paper, though it's easy to forget Lee once had real promise. That has gone down the drain, though. When a fighter loses to someone he should beat (Brian Vera) and then goes on a nearly three-year run of basically being hidden against really mediocre (at best) opposition, that raises a red flag that nobody's all that confident in him, no matter what his team says. Since losing to Vera, Lee is 9-0 (6 KO) against nothing better than a C-grade opponent. The best guy he's faced in that time is probably Affif Belghecham. Martinez's side would do this because HBO would almost surely pair it up with a decent co-feature and stick it on the network, and because Lee's side isn't likely to demand or expect much money relative to other possible opponents like Felix Sturm or somebody. Lee's side would only do this if the people advising him are bizarrely confident in his chances, or if they're not seeing the progress you'd want to see from a 26-year-old prospect whose bubble has been burst already, and figure it's better to lose to the champ for good money than get beaten by another Vera type of guy. If this doesn't happen, though, signs are still pointing to Lee rematching Vera on the February 4 edition of Friday Night Fights, should Lee win on December 11 and not suffer any injuries.
The Guy: Robert Guerrero
Potential Opponents: Jason Litzau and Jorge Linares
As much serious love as I have for Litzau's upset of Celestino Caballero, taking a fight with Guerrero would be a big mistake. At 130 pounds, Litzau can probably land a title shot, and a winnable one at that, fairly soon. But he'd have to go up to 135 to fight Guerrero. As for Linares, something in my gut tells me that Golden Boy might pay that fight some lip service, but that they won't be eager to jump on it just yet. If Marquez goes up in weight to fight Pacquiao or Erik Morales, he could potentially vacate one of his trinkets at 135, which could leave them in a position to make Guerrero-Linares more meaningful than it would be right now. It's a good fight either way, but I'm just assuming they'll want it to make the most money possible and have the most fluffed-up significance that it can.
The Fight: Hugo Cazares v. Drian Francisco
Status: In Play
Today in Thailand, Francisco (20-0-1, 16 KO) went on the road to stop Duangpetch Kokietgym in the 10th round, which puts him in line for a shot at WBA super flyweight titlist Cazares (33-6-2, 24 KO). I think Cazares, even at 32 and probably a little past his absolute best, is one of the most overlooked and underrated fighters in the game today. He was champion at 108 pounds and gave Ivan Calderon all he could handle twice there. He had two good fights with Nobuo Nashiro when moving all the way up to 115, going 1-0-1. His last two wins have been sort of "eh," and he's got a title defense in Osaka on December 23 against Hiroyuki Hisataka (19-8-1, 8 KO), which is just about a gimme win for him. If he retains as expected, the 28-year-old Filipino would be his best opponent since the second Nashiro bout. Nashiro, by the way, is set to face WBC titlist Tomas Rojas in February on a big card.
The Fight: Alexander Ustinov v. Denis Boytsov
Status: Discussed for WBA Eliminator
Familiar Klitschko undercard dross Ustinov (22-0, 17 KO) could get matched with Boystov (28-0, 23 KO) in a WBA eliminator. David Haye currently holds the belt, while Ruslan Chagaev is currently next in line. With Valuev injured and Ruiz retired, the WBA had only one avenue left for their continual circle-jerk of heavyweight titlists, so Chagaev got to fight Kali Meehan in an eliminator, which was cute, I guess. The differences between Boytsov and Ustinov are pretty striking. Boytsov is 24. Ustinov is 34 in a week. Boytsov is a prospect. Ustinov is not. Boytsov can fight. Ustinov is tall. I suppose you could argue that Ustinov has a puncher's chance if nothing else, but I'd argue that even though he was rocking Monte Barrett all over the place early in their fight, he's so incredibly slow and lumbering that he couldn't even finish off Barrett, who managed to survive all 12 rounds in one of the worst fights of 2009.
The Fight: Alexander Ustinov v. Hasim Rahman
Status: Discussed for WBA Eliminator
This is the other option, may God have mercy on anyone who could potentially watch Ustinov-Rahman.
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I can't remember where
But I thought I also saw a report that Top Rank and Lou DiBella were in talks about a possible Martinez-Cotto fight at a 155 catchweight.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yup, from Dan Rafael’s twitter:
Arum and @loudibella talked today about a possible Sergio Martinez-Miguel Cotto fight in March. Nice discussion. Nothing solid.
By the way, IF Martinez-Cotto happend, Martinez would drop to 155 to defend his middlewt title. Win or lose, Cotto would keep his 154 title.
I’ve been waiting all day for more updates on this, but nothing… and then I keep reading that Cotto’s next fight could be all the way in June.
BTW, I may be mistaken, but Cotto only decided to take the year off after they told him he couldn’t fight Chavez in December and they offered him Kermit Cintron. That’s what I’d read and I read it again recently somewhere…
http://www.firesteveaddazio.com
Fire Steve Addazio.
Sorry, the third paragraph should’ve been in italics too because it’s from Rafael’s twitter account as well: “By the way…”
http://www.firesteveaddazio.com
Fire Steve Addazio.
I love me some Miguel Cotto
but there is very little chance he beats Sergio Martinez, in my opinion.
Most fight fans would not spend a dime to watch Van Gogh paint 'Sunflowers', but they would fill Yankee Stadium to see him cut off his ear. (Bill Nack)
I agree… My ideal fight for Cotto at this stage is Berto. Honestly, I don’t really want to see him against anybody else. Maybe JCC Jr. but that’s about it.
Don’t get me wrong. If it’s Martinez I will obviously watch the fight, but I get the feeling that I will be depressed for a few days afterward.
http://www.firesteveaddazio.com
Fire Steve Addazio.
I still think Cotto beats Berto to pieces at 147
Funnily enough though, I think Berto is a better fight for Pacquaio or Floyd at the same weight.
Most fight fans would not spend a dime to watch Van Gogh paint 'Sunflowers', but they would fill Yankee Stadium to see him cut off his ear. (Bill Nack)
If Berto struggled against Collazo
I’d hate to see how well he fares against a GOOD southpaw
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
"may God have mercy on anyone who could potentially watch Ustinov-Rahman."
That being you? ;-)
I suffer from IBS, otherwise known as "Influx of Billick Syndrome".
Funny how whenever Martinez talks about a fight at catchweight, nobody bitches
Seems like that is reserved primarily for Manny Pacquiao.
Speaking of which, wouldn’t Cotto be fighting his second catchweight in hus last three fights. Again, no complaints yet about him making Martinez cut weight.
Double standards are a real bitch.
I don’t see how anyone can be bitching about Martinez imposing catchweights on anyone. As far as the Williams fight goes, he acceded to the demands of Paul so as to make the fight happen. That’s probably why you find anyone bitching about Martinez.
And, really, if Cotto is to have any chance against Martinez, this fight has to be at 155. The reason this would be the second catchweight in his last three fights is because Pacquiao imposed a 145 against him. Nobody’s now going to be kidded and think Cotto has been asking for catchweights. The only reason anyone has a “bitch” about Pacquiao is because he made a fighter who was already tight at the weight (Cotto) drop another pound. I don’t really have a problem, but still.
Such were the days, still, hot, heavy, disappearing one by one into the past, as if falling into an abyss for ever open in the wake of the ship; and the ship, lonely under a wisp of smoke, held on her steadwast way black and smouldering in a luminous immensity, as if scorched by a flame flicked at her from a heaven without pity.
by Oli Goldstein on Dec 1, 2010 3:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't really agree re- Cotto.
He wasn’t really tight at the weight, if by that you mean struggling to make 147.
And the catch was only 145, which was, as you rightly say, only one pound less than he’d been fighting at for ages.
Most fight fans would not spend a dime to watch Van Gogh paint 'Sunflowers', but they would fill Yankee Stadium to see him cut off his ear. (Bill Nack)
he was fine at 145
It was Pacquiao’s speed that beat him. I’d sooner blame Cotto’s shit training camp than the weight. He looked in fine shape to me, just the lesser man.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
And being the lesser man to Pacquaio right now puts him in a group of.....
The world’s population minus Manny Pacquaio.
Most fight fans would not spend a dime to watch Van Gogh paint 'Sunflowers', but they would fill Yankee Stadium to see him cut off his ear. (Bill Nack)
poor Manny
But it could be more that most “boxing fans” care about Manny Pacquiao fights and don’t care about or really pay attention to Sergio Martinez or Miguel Cotto (unless they were fighting Pacquiao). That’s not directed at anyone here, really (regulars at least), but Manny is under more scrutiny because he’s a much bigger star. I couldn’t give a flying fart less about catchweights myself. It’s just a weight they have to make, same as any other fight. BFD.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
This is absurd
Martinez is proposing catchweights to make it easier for his OPPONENTS. Can you see the difference?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Of course I see the difference. But ails see the common denominator. That catch weights are used to make matches people want to see…and in some if not most cases they would otherwise never get to see.
Martinez saying he can, will and wants to go down a pound here or a pound there is another way of saying a pound here or a pound there don’t make a damn difference. Pacquiao critics jumped all over him for making poor Miguel Cotto come down ONE POUND. Some even said that was the arson he lost.
I say BS!
These guys are stone cold professionals. For the right money they can and do boil off whatever they have to to mark money fights. Or add for that matter. When they win, everyone says how good they looked. When they lose, suddenly there are so many leaks from their camps about them struggling to make weight you could re-sink the Titanic.
Some of it is absolutely real. Most of it is excuses and revisionist crap.
Martinez is a guy who seems to always be in great shape. He didn’t blink before he said he’d consider the best fights ….. At a variety of weights. I admire that.
I also admire Manny moving up to higher and higher weights and bigger and bigger challenges…..at weights that his opponents contract to fight him. If he never tested the waters with de la Hoya at welterweight, we would not be talking so much about him. His victory that night skyrocketed his profile. I have always found it offensive and hypocritical to accuse him of forcing that ‘catchweight’ when we all know it was Oscars decision to make. And that only AFTER Oscar failed to come out for a greater beat down did the ’struggle’s make weight become an issue.
I was an Oscar fan that night…and I was shocked. But I never blamed the little man for forcing Oscar to do anything he didn’t …and everyone else….think was an issue.
I like Sergio enough…but Im not altogether convinced. What I do like however is that he is willing to catch himself some big prize fights …. At whatever weight necessary.
I think you’re way over-generalizing. Martinez said he could get down to 156, no less.
Guys can’t boil off “whatever they have to”.
"Yes Gina, I am a Wise Cracker"
Not all guys. But Martinez sure as hell can
He just doesnt have to …at least not yet. If he wants big names, he’ll go exactly where he needs to.
December 5, 2009
Less than one year ago….and for every fight the 6 preceding years….Martinez weighed 154 or less. He’s a junior middleweight who won a middleweight crown….but never even weighed in at middle.
Read my post below. Martinez is a smart, cool and calculated fighter….looking to cash in. As he should.
He fought PW at 159 on December 5, 2009.
The last time he fought at 154 was Feb. 2009 – almost two years ago.
Unless boxrec is wrong.
"Yes Gina, I am a Wise Cracker"
I just don’t know that I’m going to operate from the assumption that Martinez is playing games with the weight – he’s 35 years old, weights a bitch in a fighter’s 30s.
"Yes Gina, I am a Wise Cracker"
You're right. He's not playing games. He's in business.
He’s in business. And you’re right…his best earning years might arguably have been earlier. That is of course had he achieved anything noteworthy before Cintron.
Williams and Martinez both know that the Junior Welterweight division sucked when it came to getting name competition and big money. So they each, for their own reasons, moved around. In this case, up. Neither is a big middleweight. In fact Williams never even made it to that weight. Martinez spotted him a few points …I mean pounds…to get him to fight. And we all know how that worked out.
PW is probably in no hurry to catch a fight at a weight near Sergio’s again. Others should be just as wary.
In six years
He did fight once…in 2006….at a higher weight. Otherwise every fight he fought was at …or lower…than 154.
He’s a junior middleweight…..and one year at middle ain’t stopping him from taking some milk money off of some smaller guys willing to meet him on his terms.
Get your facts straight
You’ve made several factually inaccurate statements, and then you try to stand on them. If you’re going to argue this “poor baby Manny, why don’t people rip on Martinez” motto – make sure it lines up with reality.
Did you click the link above? – here it is again, Martinez’s RECORD.
"Yes Gina, I am a Wise Cracker"
My facts are plenty straight
if I missed one fight from 2003 to the first Williams fightwhere Sergio moved above 154, big deal. Every other fight untilDecember of last year…he was a junior middleweight.
And I’m not poor ‘Manny-ing’ anything. I am saying that catch weights are a word being used as a tool to diminish his accomplishment too often by those who want to begrudge him something.
And more to the point.. Catchweights are used to make matches people want to see….and have been used for years. And yes, by the by fighters
with the better leverage. In this case by Martinez to get himself fights that
pay. The fishing at middle is thin….and the catch is better at junior middle. Full stop.
No one should suggest, win or lose, that his weight has anything to do with it. I know he won’t . Because he is an advocate of catchweights.
And just who did he fight at 154 from 2003 to 2009? Roman, Bunema, Cintron and a slew of ham’n’eggers. Sergio’s best wins have been above 154 lbs, including the lineal middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik and Paul Williams, to whom he handed his first KO loss in the second round.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
You're facts haven't been straight in this whole thread
The two big ones (that you seem to continue to stand behind) are:
December 5, 2009 less than one year ago
He fought PW at 159, but you did get the date right. He’s fought 3 in a row above 156. His last fight below 156 was in February of 2009.
for every fight the 6 preceding years….Martinez weighed 154 or less.
Along with the PW fight, he fought Toribio at 155 in 2008, and Presente Brito at 159 in 2006. Did you say “every fight the 6 preceding years”?
Look, I don’t have a problem with your general perspective, but you’re using some shit as the basis of your argument, and some of that shit……it just ain’t true.
And frankly, at this point in his career, I bet Martinez would have a difficult time getting below 156.
"Yes Gina, I am a Wise Cracker"
He's willing to make that bet.
And missing one fight in my facts is good enough.
So what if he fought once at 159. What you forgot or failed to mention..and I was kind enough before not to….was how many times he fought UNDER 154 in that same period. I’ll live with my aggregate that lists him as a junior middleweight until this year
He a junior middle weight who has won a crown this year at middle against a once decent champion. And then he KO’ed a very good junior middle weight in Williams.
The fact is Martinez is not lookingf to take on anyone bigger or even his own size. He wants money and time to make it. So he is fighting smaller guys and enticing them to fight above their optimim weights.
At catchweights.
I'm sure he could fight at 154
But he has WAY more leverage by making a fight at 155. That way, people can try to fight for HIS middleweight crown.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
A catchweight of 155 doesn’t help Martinez at this point. It’s a negotiating tactic. Could Martinez still comfortably make 154? Maybe. Would Cotto be at a disadvantage fighting the 159 lb Sergio who beat Pavlik? Yes. Cotto is no middleweight.
Martinez is doing what Mayweather was supposedly doing when he offered 146 to JMM. He’s trying to give up a little something to make the contract slightly more attractive and the fight more competitive (of course, Money May weighed in over 146 anyway).
Pacquiao was on the other side of that when he asked Cotto to trim down a pound. He was handicapping Cotto. Martinez is handicapping himself.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
The supposed May-Marquez catch was 144.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
Right, yes, 144. Which actually might have made it a slightly better fight, if Floyd had to burn himself down at all.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
Yeah, Marquez might have won a round, or landed a punch, or something...
Most fight fans would not spend a dime to watch Van Gogh paint 'Sunflowers', but they would fill Yankee Stadium to see him cut off his ear. (Bill Nack)
Martinez is hardly handicapping himself
He’s a sly fox hunting a big payday …suckering a smaller man to come into his den.
Martinez just fought at 154 a little over a year ago. He’s a tiny middleweight and a full junior middle. He knows damn well he can get to 155, problem Not for him anyhow.
The problem would be Cotto’s. He want hurting welterweights (Clottey and Pacquiao) in his latter fights. And I hope no one is use his ‘destruction’ of Yuri Foreman as a marker to definitively confirm his Jr. middleweight credentials. Fighting higher than 154 is a stretch. One pound more…..against Sergio…is his problem indeed.
If he signs at 155, Martinez has him right where he wants him. No excuses accepted.
Martinez just kayoed iron-chinned Paul Williams and slashed Kelly Pavlik to bloody ribbons… at 160, not 154. At 154, the best guys he kayoed were guys like Saul Roman and a very ring worn Bunema on cuts. Who was the best guy he beat at 154? He got robbed in his “draw” versus Kermit Quitron, but okay let’s say for the sake of argument won that one. That might be it.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
He wants to get a contract signed, period There’s nothing tricky or sly about it. It’s contract negotiation. If you look at catchweights as a sliding scale between what’s ideal for Cotto (154) and what’s ideal for Martinez (160), then “155” is pushing the needle as far as it can go in Cotto’s direction. “You want to make the fight? Okay, I’m willing to bend this much.”
Also Sergio is 35. Your body tend to be the “sly fox” when you hit your mid-thirties. Martinez could think he could easily make it and his metabolism could say “nope, sorry, not this time partner.” In the last three years, he’s only made 154 three times, and fought over 154 five times, including his last three fights. Making weight isn’t as easy as you get older, or if you’ve been fighting at a higher weight for three fights in a row, like Sergio has. Your body starts to acclimate itself to the new weight pretty quickly.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
Absolutely right.
If he sets a fight with Cotto at 155 and fails to meet his own expectations, that’s his problem. He’ll wind uf like George Clooney in Wes Anderson’s version of Dahl’s Tale.
A fox ( said respectfully) …without a tail.
BTW, my guess is that fights Margarito before he ever meets Sergio.
That is what Top Rank will want for both fighters and Margarito is a bigger draw that Martinez.
I don’t get who is “absolutely right” about what. Or what George Clooney has to do with anything.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
George Clooney was the voice of The Fantastic Mr Fox
It was a great part in an excellent film.
Whenever he got too clever, he paid a price.
In one case, getting his tail shot off.
I was saying your paragraph was absolutely right.
A catchweight of 155 doesn’t help Martinez at this point. It’s a negotiating tactic. Could Martinez still comfortably make 154? Maybe. Would Cotto be at a disadvantage fighting the 159 lb Sergio who beat Pavlik? Yes. Cotto is no middleweight.
Plus I liked what yiou said about Martinez maybe finding out too late thgat his body wont respond as flexibly as he thinks…after being above 159 for a year.
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