Pacquiao Watch: Shane Mosley Is Arum's Favorite, But Marquez Is Gaining Support
by Scott Christ on Dec 2, 2010 1:22 PM EST
in Boxing News Analysis
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With the word that Pacquiao will fight again on April 16 at the MGM Grand (take with a grain of salt, though), it could be sooner than later that we find out who Pacquiao's next opponent will be. The trio in talks are Shane Mosley, Juan Manuel Marquez and Andre Berto right now. Berto seems to be a distant third in the running, with Marquez getting more hype as the most "deserving" after his lightweight championship defense against Michael Katsidis on Saturday.
Pacquiao's promoter Bob Arum quite clearly favors Mosley:
"Of all of the three guys, Andre Berto is the toughest sell because to the general public, he is totally unknown. I mean, when you look at the general public, of those three guys, who would be the guy that would be most well-known? Easily, it's Shane Mosley," said Arum.
"Shane Mosley's been around forever, he's beaten Oscar De La Hoya twice. So, it's Mosley. The second-most well-known of the three would be Marquez. You know? And, you know, with Marquez, there is a big drop off from Shane Mosley as far as the general public is concerned," said Arum.
I don't think there really is a big dropoff from Shane Mosley to Juan Manuel Marquez as far as the general public is concerned, but that's an easy way for Arum to explain putting in Mosley on the "strength" of two lousy performances this year, and ignoring Marquez who was a pretty strong 2-0 on the year against Juan Diaz and Katsidis, looking very sharp in both fights.
Marquez has the Mexican fanbase, which has proven time and time and time and time and time again to be very loyal and very willing to pay for pay-per-view fights. Pacquiao's last fight against Antonio Margarito did 1.15 million. There also is this weird disconnect from Arum when talking about what Manny should do next, and what he did in 2010. He fought Joshua Clottey (700K on PPV) and Margarito. Are either of those guys as well-known as Marquez? Clottey definitely isn't, and Margarito was best-known to Arum's beloved "general public" as the guy who got his face beaten in by Shane Mosley after being caught trying to load his wraps.
Marquez fought Mayweather, which did a million pay-per-view buys. Marquez was in the 2009 Fight of the Year on HBO, which is about as good a claim to being well-known as Margarito has. Marquez has twice fought Pacquiao and is regarded as the last guy to give him real trouble, or if you listen to some weirdos, the only guy to ever give Pacquiao trouble.
Arum says he has "positions" from Mosley -- who would fight under his own banner and not Golden Boy -- and Berto, but nothing yet from Marquez. Bob's stepson Todd duBoef and Golden Boy's Richard Schaefer have had preliminary talks, with Schaefer doing his usual "it was a good discussion" bit.
Nacho Beristain, Marquez's trainer, expects that Mosley will get the fight, and throws out a great, somewhat comical line about how Arum could "make himself a great asset to our sport" by going with Marquez instead. And Oscar de la Hoya has chimed in with his usual brand of dim-witted swipe:
"For me, Juan Manuel won the first two fights and he's the only one who succeeded in creating problems for Pacquiao, a fighter who has always forced his opponents, including myself, to lose weight and leave everything on the scale."
I must be remembering some other Oscar de la Hoya who fought Manny Pacquiao in 2008 after clearly stating it was his own intention to return to 147 pounds after not fighting there in seven years. Maybe I also don't recall that before going down to 147, Oscar took a tune-up fight against Steve Forbes on HBO at a 150-pound catchweight to see how his body would react. Or maybe I don't remember Manny Pacquiao having never fought over 135 pounds, which he had done once against David Diaz, before facing Oscar. And maybe, just maybe, Oscar wasn't a heavy favorite entirely because Pacquiao wasn't supposed to be able to handle the size and power differences.
But that can't be it. It must be Oscar de la Hoya, friend of the fight fan, telling the truth and speaking his mind about the problems plaguing this grand sport. That dastardly Pacquiao making Oscar lose all that weight. What a sneakthief. Thanks for that Mosley-Mora pay-per-view, chief! It's not like Oscar de la Hoya ever "forced" a catchweight before, after all.
In semi-related news, trainer Robert Garcia says he feels Marquez should get the fight in a story at FanHouse, which is mostly about the post-fight kindness Pacquiao showed the entire Margarito team on November 13.
So it's down to three, and the biggest wheel involved has his clear favorite. There may not be any stopping Pacquiao-Mosley at this rate.
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good jabs towards Dela Hoya...
I bet that wouldn’t move him though.
It iwould be hard to erase the argument about their previous fights but I think it is the right time for Pac to shut him up… the with their previous. And this time I agree that JMM deserve this fight however the quality of the fight ends up.
Personally i would probably prefer to see him face Berto out of the 3 but i think that is more likely to happen in late 2011,if Berto doesn’t get his bubble burst beforehand.
Even though it’s very likely the welterweight limit will make it an unfair advantage for Pac and the fight would be much better at 140 (or below),i suppose it’s now or never if they want to make the trilogy between these two.
The "forced me to drain" comment is ludicrous
Oscar was moving down to 147 one way or the other. The ORIGINAL plan was actually to rematch Floyd Mayweather at 147 for his lineal welterweight title, which was why he picked Steve Forbes at 150 as his interim fight, since Forbes is sort of like a broke man’s version of Mayweather. When there wasn’t sufficient interest and Mayweather “retired”, he wound up facing Pacquiao instead, who Oscar very conveniently forgets was moving up 17 pounds in the same span that he was moving down 7.
Unfortunately, it’s sounding more and more like Pacquiao-Mosley is a done deal. Mosley’s been tweeting that it’s 99% done. But I really do feel like Pacquiao-Marquez would end up generating similar interest while being a much, much better fight.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And to top it off
If Pacquiao-Mosley does happen at 147 flat, the revisionists will claim that Pacquiao forced Mosley to drain as well because his last fight was at 154, even though Mosley has consistently looked better at 147 than he has at 154 his entire career.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yeah, and after Mayweather retired, there was a rumour that De La Hoya wanted to finish his “three fight retirement plan” by fighting Miguel Cotto who, at that time, was undefeated. And Cotto, obviously, was fighting at 147. But then Miguel lost to Margarito and Margarito challenged De La Hoya but he didn’t even answer and instead chose to fight Pacquiao. I remember people were saying De la Hoya was afraid of getting beat by Margarito so he chose the small man instead… ironic.
http://www.firesteveaddazio.com
Fire Steve Addazio.
Oscar was an excellent fighter
But like his failure in many of his biggest fights, he always seems to leave a few key facts out of his pronouncements. I don’t know if he thinks we’re stupid…or maybe it’s him. I have my guess.
He's pretty smart
Else he wouldn’t be so rich. He thinks the casual fight fan is stupid, or more correctly, ignorant. He’s right, the casual fight fan is ignorant. They probably don’t know the terms and agreement between Pacquiao and Oscar, or Pacquiao and the rest of his opponents. The key facts that SC and you point out are probably lost on them. So they might buy Oscar’s bullshit, where as we call it exactly what it is.
Assuming that someone became rich because they're smart or even shrewd is one of the biggest mistakes a businessman can make
It certainly helps, but I’ve dealt with some hedge fund managers and the like who are dumb as rocks, but are just barely smart enough to figure out when something is important enough to pass it off to someone who actually knows what they’re doing.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And that's not a smart move?
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist.
Absolutely right.
They themselves will tell you how important it was to be in the right place at the right time….and any other number of variables that accounted for the success of a given party.
oscar’s no dummy. He’s media trained to boot. But he does make some ridiculous comments in a media saturated age when he be called on it all too easily.
And let’s remember, if he doesn’t get JMM this fight, he has failed his client. And that is not Top Ranks problem . It’s Oscars
I agree that some business men just have a brain that knows how to make money.
Not all of them are clever in the traditional sense,they just get motivated by green.
Usually the ones who admit they don't know everything are the smarter ones
The dangerous ones are the ones who project an aura of being knowledgable, and like to bully people around, but don’t really know jack from shit. Those guys tend to amass small fortunes before losing it overnight and taking everyone around them down with them.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Dec 2, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hahaha!
I’ve run into a few of those before in the construction trade (and in other circumstances) and i’m sure i will again in the future. :)
Exactly
Admitting what you don’t know is a sign of intelligence and confidence…and the first step in surrounding yourself with those that do.
Failure to admit…or hubris…has plenty of upside. But the downside is a bitch
Right on point Scott
If Mosely gets the fight, there is a business argument to suggest that he better than Marquez can attract the urban black fight fan…..and that Manny already has the Mexican fans. And thus the slightly bigger potential.
The calculus on Marquez for the moment is that he and Margarito are probably…to the loyal Mexican fan…about equal in drawing power. So TR would have a pretty good idea where their audience would top out with JMM and Manny.
Other factors to consider. If Arum is right…and after all it’s his money for promotion…then he can fight SSM first and still fight Marquez. Helll…by that time TR might have both guys fighting under their banner.
Take that Oscar
If Mosely gets the fight, there is a business argument to suggest that he better than Marquez can attract the urban black fight fan…..and that Manny already has the Mexican fans. And thus the slightly bigger potential.
And that would be a poor argument…Mosley is NOT the bigger attraction then Marquez. The Mexican fanbase is quite larger and more rabidly supportive to their fighters then the black fan base is.
I believe the promoters metrics show otherwise and hence this push to grab SSM audience before it evaporates.
Manny will get a huge audience with Marquez. The assumption is about the size of Margarito . Around 1.15 million minimum.
They think Mosely can do better. Plus, erod, you just said the casual fight fan is stupid. So ask yourself…if you are Manny or his people….who marks you more money. The better known SSM…or JMM, not the biggest star even in Mexico.
Stop trying to make Mosley out to be this huge superstar now
He’s not. Never has been, never will be.
Marquez is the better business decision, but he’s more risky if they fight at a reasonable catch weight. That’s why they wont choose him. If they fight at welter, it’s a farce of a fight just like the Mayweather-Marquez fight. Mosley is the only legitimate welterweight available who is a decent draw. Pacquiao has either beaten the rest, or they wont draw flies to shit.
I disagree...
When people speak of the Mexican fan base, it’s not just people who live in Mexico. It’s Mexican Americans too. I still think Marquez’s fan base is bigger the Shane’s,even in the US.
Here are the numbers:
Floyd….Marquez 1,000,000
Floyd….Shane 1,400,000
Before Floyd Marqiuez Diaz sold less than 200,000 Buys.
Marquez-Diaz I was before the Floyd fight but was not on PPV. Marquez-Diaz II was after the Marquez-Floyd fight, and did somewhere between 150-200K. And Mosley-Mora did not do that many buys (they touted “above 100,000” in the press), and Mosley-Mora had FAR better advertisment and push than Marquez-Diaz II, which was basically an HBO version of “Latin Fury.”
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
No numbers are exact
But this fight is going to be made on projected profits for everybody, fighter and promoters. If they believe Shne , who has pulled bigger numbers in the past, can out-draw JMM, that’ who Arum will promote.
Manny will ultimately decide.
This is an exact truth: Marquez’s last PPV outperformed Mosley’s. Just because they say they think Mosley is the bigger star doesn’t mean it’s so, and if that’s their reasoning, it’s flawed, and deserves to be pointed out.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
I love Manny, Matt
He’s earned it one fight at a time.
Not at first but every year, every fight, he just gets better and better.
And he lives and fights to entertain.
I don’t really want him to fight Mosely BTW.
But if TR believes that Shane adds to Manny’s audience and that Manny already has the Mexican audience, that’s what they will show to Manny in the Philippines when Arum takes him the various proposals. They have the worldwide numbers so I’m sure their assumptions are based on more than a hunch.
But I am sure there are intangibles that are unpredictable; one of which is what does Manny want to do. If the numbers are close, then maybe Manny goes for JMM. But if they are not, I doubt it.
nobody is getting any younger…and his legacy is pretty solid.
But numbers don’t guarantee asses in seat or PPV buys.
No they didn't.
Besides, Mosley-Mayweather was more of a result of the celebrity of Mayweather then anything. Mosley has never ever been a major draw.
On the B side of a star he is.
At least that’s they think now.
My feeling is that they, JMM and SSM, are neck and neck….but that Shane will fight under TRs banner so that makes him the front runner. That , plus his name recognition. On the other hand, I think Manny is such a superstar that with promotional effort and HBO 24/7 they could promote a third fight with JMM that would at least equal what they believe Manny SSM would make.
Remember, they are doing this for money. All of them. The fighters and their promoters. And that is what their decisions will be made on.
Paul Williams and Chad Dawson question this “urban fanbase.”
"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi
It's there.
One million four hundred paid to see Floyd fight Marquez.
Four hundred thousand more paid to see him fight Shane.
In theatres thgrought the country.
Dawson is a bore.
And William has no indigenous/regional or fan base whatsoever.
He should be asking his promoters why.
Its not an urban fanbase
Its a Floyd fanbase. There are people that love Floyd, that’s it. They don’t get behind other Black fighters like the Mexican fanbase gets behind other Mexican fighters, simply as that. It’s like how Nonito has a huge Filipino fanbase…oh wait.
"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi
Is it really that much better of a sell if the 'known' Shane Mosley is now best known as getting demolished by Mayweather?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 2, 2010 2:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Arum is already playing selectively with Mosley's record
“He beat Oscar twice!!!! Mayweather, what? Mora, what? Cotto, what? He beat Oscar twice!!!! He demolished Margarito!!! Winky wright? Who’s that??? Vernon Forrest? Long time ago…He BEAT OSCAR TWICE I SAY!!!”
At the end of the day
You’re probably talking about the 4th biggest draw in the US and the 5th biggest draw in the US. There isn’t that much difference between the two at this point. Didn’t Marquez-Diaz outsell Mosley-Mora even?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Top 3 being
1. Mayweather
2. Pacquiao
3. Cotto
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
A bit off-topic
but relating to Manny.
I used to,and probably still do respect Teddy Atlas as an analyst and he is pretty good at telling you what’s going on in a fight (although,as most of us know,some of his statements and analogies are unintentionally hilarious) but reading his predictions on the Pac v Margo fight in his coulmn in Boxing News (a UK boxing magazine,for anyone who doesn’t know) made me look at him with a bit less respect.
Basically he picked Margo to win a few weeks before the fight,stating that his size and Manny’s supposed susceptibility to uppercuts would get the job done.Then,the week after the fight,he’s back in the guest column,and instead of just giving Pac the credit he was due and complimenting his performance,he makes a big deal out of how Tony was dead at the weight and drained.Says he could tell in the first round that Tony had nothing on his punches.
BULLS**T!
Also,the ridiculous situation with Alexander Povetkin and his fighting illegal exibitions to supposedly get him more experience is just comical.What is he playing at here???
I tend to have a ton more respect for someone who admits they are wrong instead of making excuses but Teddy gets it wrong pretty often so maybe it would get embarassing :).
We’ll chalk this one up to not learning your lesson after foolishly picking Hatton to beat Mayweather,Mr Atlas.
He was the only supposed expert i could find before each fight picking either of those guys.
Teddy is great at breaking down a live fight
But HORRIBLE at picking winners. He’s so bad at picking winners, that if you always bet against who he picked, you’d probably do as well as the best bettors out there.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Ha. Just fooling
We know now that Matt was busy writing about collage.
But we also know that Teddy loves to hear himself talk…and doesnt like to back down or admit when he’s wrong.
It’s finally happening. Oscar is becoming Arum. Yesterday he was lying, today he is telling the truth.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I'm halfway expecting Hatton Promotions to hijack the WBO in about 5 years
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I don't care who fights who as long as someone fights someone.
I don't take personal insults well. My wires are such so that when it happens, i'm not going to put on head gear, lace up the gloves and put in the mouthpiece. I'm going to drop the gloves and just let the adrenaline take off.
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