Pavlik agrees in principle to fight Martinez
by Scott Christ on Feb 12, 2010 7:24 AM EST
in Boxing News Analysis
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The rumored April 17 middleweight championship fight between Kelly Pavlik and Sergio Martinez is all but complete, with just the contracts left to be signed. The two have agreed in principle, and a press conference to make it official is expected after the Olympics conclude.
Middleweight champ Pavlik (36-1, 32 KO) is coming off of something of a "lost year" in 2009. Though he did fight twice, the first was against overwhelmed fringe contender Marco Antonio Rubio, and the second came in December against Miguel Espino, a fighter not even on the fringes of contention, or anywhere particularly close.
In between those fights came two bouts that were cast aside. First, a June date with former junior middleweight titlist and "Contender" winner Sergio Mora was scrapped due to Pavlik's injured hand and/or a contract dispute with Top Rank, and then later in the year, dates in October and December both feel through with Paul Williams, as Pavlik cited a supposedly near-fatal battle with staph infection in his hand as the reason. Many doubted him, many didn't, and either way the fight didn't happen. Pavlik-Williams was to be one of the marquee events of boxing's big last quarter in '09, and it even managed to push other fights (Mosley-Clottey, for instance) off the grid, then didn't even happen.
There were also all the rumors coming out of Youngstown about Pavlik having a drinking problem, getting into bar fights (in one instance he and trainer Jack Loew were sued in what seemed to be a completely ridiculous case), and all that noise.
Really, though, that's all it is. Noise. Forget about it.
And while I would agree with the complaint that Sergio Martinez is not Paul Williams, and that Pavlik-Williams is the fight to be made, realistically I have to accept that Pavlik-Williams isn't happening right now, and to be honest neither side is making a massive stink about it. Williams fought Martinez in a brutal battle in December, with Martinez replacing Pavlik on pretty short notice. It was a close fight and a lot of folks thought Martinez deserved the nod. So though Martinez is coming off of a loss to Williams, I don't see this as a bad fight in any way.
It's easily the best fight Pavlik has taken since his loss to Bernard Hopkins back in October 2008, which will be an 18-month span by the time Pavlik and Martinez lace 'em up in April. Pavlik was able to walk through Rubio last year, as Rubio really presented no resistance and looked tiny next to the middleweight champ. And then he was able to bulldoze Miguel Espino, another smaller guy who can't punch, even though Pavlik was clearly not in his best shape physically and won that fight on pure power and size.
Pavlik's about 6'3" and will be much taller than Martinez (5'11"), but Sergio has long arms (76" reach, compared to Pavlik's 75"), is a southpaw, is very slick when he wants to be, and has some sneaky pop. His KO rate (44-2-2, 24 KO) isn't particularly impressive, and the best win on his resume is Alex Bunema, but Martinez is a huge threat. I have him ranked as the best 154-pound fighter in the world (and he's at least one of the two best, if you have Williams ranked at 154 instead of 160). He's shown a good chin, a lot of skills, and some real fire. For a long time he looked like an empty record from Argentina. He's proven to be a legit contender.
The fight will take place at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, Pavlik's home away from home and the host of Williams-Martinez, and HBO will televise this bout alongside Lucian Bute's 168-pound title defense against Edison Miranda from Montreal.
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Pavlik-Martinez
I like this fight for Pavlik. It won’t be easy, but title fights shouldn’t be. By taking on Martinez, Pavlik has the opportunity to show he can beat a top-notch boxer. The Taylor wins shouldn’t be disregarded (consider how much more effective Pavlik was than Froch on a round-by-round basis), but obviously Taylor had significant flaws. Martinez is solid all-around, though I doubt he could really hurt Pavlik without a ton of big shots.
If Pavlik wins, I think Pavlik-Williams becomes likely before too long. The options for both are so limited… not many fighters are eager to mix it up with Williams and the Super Six, together with a moribund Middleweight division, makes it hard for Pavlik to find quality opposition. Williams’ side seems hopeful they can leverage the postponement into a much better deal this time around, but eventually they will have to abandon that pipe dream.
Martinez is a
welterweight who moved up to jr. middleweight, so. ….
I don’t know: I’m looking forward to this, but at the moment I’m picturing a big middleweight in with a former welterweight. But Monzon fought Griffith and Napoles, right? I hope this is a tough fight that pushes Kelly.
Yeah but he moved up to junior middleweight for good eight years ago. He was huge for welter.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Feb 12, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
He wouldn't be small for a middleweight either
He’s about the same size as Sebastian Sylvester and most of the middleweight contenders.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
True.
And as I said, Monzon faced welterweights—great ones, but. …
Griffith gave Carlos some moments.
Maybe Sergio will be a slick mess for Kelly. Hoping for a good fight.
Pavlik needs to prove that a fighter that moves to his right doesn’t completely cut his(meaning Pavlik’s)nuts off or he’s heading to a decision loss against Martinez.
Do
you think Pavlik can win a decision against Martinez, taco pal?
Can’t picture at this point the ways this fight might unfold.
Easier to see Williams/Pavlik.
I find it tough to imagine that happening. Pavlik could very well win, but I feel like whatever else happens in the fight, because of Martinez’s massive speed advantage and Pavlik’s less-than-spectacular defense, Martinez is going to hit Pavlik cleanly a lot more frequently than Pavlik hits Martinez cleanly. I suppose Pavlik could win a decision by collecting some extra points on KDs but I can’t imagine him simply outboxing Martinez. I know Pavlik beat Taylor by decision in their rematch without benefit of a KD, but despite being a pretty fast guy, Taylor doesn’t move around that much. Martinez does.
Then again, Ricardo Mayorga once won a decision over Vernon Forrest without knocking him down, so I guess you never know.
While Martinez beat Cintron convincingly
Or at least should have, Cintron still had his moments. I still view Cintron as a smaller, less technically sound, less aggressive version of Pavlik. Furthermore, Martinez’s output dropped a lot in the Cintron fight because he was afraid of Cintron’s power. Pavlik has a lot more power than Cintron, in my opinion. I can honestly see Pavlik outworking Martinez to a decision.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Plus
For whatever reason, Martinez’s style just doesn’t seem to play well with judges. Some guys (Mijares jumps to mind) always seem to get shorted on the scorecards just because their style isn’t flashy enough to win rounds on some judge’s scorecards. Martinez seems to be on the verge of falling into that category.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
As Brickhaus posted in an earlier thread,i would give Martinez a better shot at beating Pavlik than i would Williams beating Pavlik.
Kelly is much more likely to get frustrated and confused against Martinez,and Martinez can make him pay.
I’m not saying that Pavlik is going to lose but from a betting perspective,the live underdog is the only one worth backing in boxing (unless you’re loaded).
And Martinez is most def VERY live.
Well, it's true that
Williams certainly gets hit a lot more than Martinez does. And there will be a massive speed differential between Martinez and Pavlik. I don’t know how much weight to give Pavlik’s loss to Hopkins: In hindsight, Kelly seemed to be made for Bernard, and it’s hard (for me anyway) to tell where Pavlik is right now (beside regrouping after a number of setback), from his subsequent fights. I always thought that some people overrated him. Williams might be overrated too, so I’m not sure what the close loss to him meant for Martinez. I can certainly see that Martinez is very slick; while he’s not going to take Pavlik’s jab away like Hopkins did, he might negate it with elusiveness. What exactly does Pavlik have beside the double jab and the right hand? I think that you are both right in saying that Martinez has a shot here.
I Agree,
it’s hard to say where Pavlik is at right now.Surely he learned something after boxing the crafty Hopkins but while Martinez might not be as wily as the old man,he has the southpaw factor and speedy counter punching for Kelly to deal with.
I really see this as being the toughest test for Pav behind the Hopkins fight and i am a bit suprised that Pavlik’s camp went with this one.I know there’s not many other options at the moment with Williams wanting 50/50 and all that but Martinez just seems like he could be another style nightmare,after what we saw Hopkins do.
You're right,
what else is Pavlik going to do? Not many fights of interest waiting unless he moves up. While I’m not sure of where he is, I’m also not completely sure about Martinez. I do know that a young Martinez was whipped pretty good by a young Margarito (a long time and two divisions ago) and that his resume since is not filled with HOF names. I was impressed him in the Williams fight, and my eyes tell me that he’s a handful. But then, I think of Williams in the first Quintana fight, and I remember that I was of the opinion that if Margarito had not inexplicably run out of gas, he was going to put a hurt on Paul in the 12th round of their fight. So, some matches you can easily see, but others. …
I guess for me they take some time and some thinking.
Oh yeah,Martinez hasn’t exactly got a great list of names on his rcord and maybe i am overrating his chances against a true middleweight in Pavlik.Pavlik may well get the KO,and i think that is his best chance to win.
I think Martinez has been a sleeper at 154 for a long time though and maybe he didn’t get the breaks,i don’t know.
I remember first seeing him beat a pretty good domestic fighter in Richard Williams over here in England in their first fight and then stopped him in the rematch,around 2003.
I was impressed with his style then but as you alluded to,he lost Margs and had the close one with Williams.
If Margs could walk through him and stop him(can’t really remember what happened in that fight),Pavlik could very easily do the same.
I think Martinez hits hard enough to certainly get Pavlik’s attention and even hurt him.
I would probably pick Pav to win but have a few quid on Martinez .
Was Margarito loaded up back then though!!!?
Only joking :).
You never know though…………Once a cheat…………:).
take a breath
There are 24 posts in this thread (this one included) and 11 are yours. You’ve gone bananas.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Feb 12, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t actually mind, you’re not trolling. I was just breaking balls, so to speak.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Feb 12, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Wow...
I actually think a fight with Paul Williams would be better for Kelly than Martinez. Paul will slug it out with Kelly and will be in front of him most of the night. Martinez on the other hand will be sticking and moving as they say. We saw what a moving target did to Kelly when he fought bernard.
In Kelly’s favor is that Martinez is a southpaw and can be susceptible to a big right. This is a scary fight for Kelly and I’d be willing to be a fight with Paul would be a bit easier.
by SmittytheCutman on Feb 12, 2010 8:18 PM EST reply actions
I think this is definitely true, but I don’t see it as a bad thing. Whereas Pavlik could just outslug Williams, Martinez will require some boxing and ring strategy. That experience could be crucial if Pavlik were to take on Bute (likewise a fundamentally sound southpaw), for instance.
by drivlikejehu on Feb 12, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
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