Betting on Boxing
by Matt Mosley on Feb 25, 2010 3:39 PM EST
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I bet now and again on boxing if i see some value.I usually either look for specific round betting or accumulators where i can bet small to win (relatively) big.
I have had a few good wins such as picking Carl Froch to KO Jermain Taylor in rd 12 (25-1),David Haye to stop Jean-Marc Mormeck in 7,Bernard Hopkins to KO Oscar De La Hoya in rd 9 and Vitali Klitschko to stop Danny Williams in 8.I can honestly say i am in profit when i stick to boxing but don't tend to do as well when i bet on MMA,rugby league and the NFL!
Have any of you had some good picks that you would like to share?
Like i say,i don't bet big and i do it to make the fights even more exciting as much as to win money.
Anyway,my reason for this post is that i want to list some fights and get the opinions and predictions of you BLH posters.
Below is a four-fold i am thinking of betting on some time next week .Here are my picks:-
1/Devon Alexander v Juan Urango - ALEXANDER UD (but i think Alexander also has a chance of the stoppage).
2/Manny Pacquiao v Joshua Clottey - PACQUIAO UD (i was leaning towards a stoppage for Pac but the odds for a points win are higher and Clottey has a hard shell to crack.Plus,he's never been stopped and is still in his prime).
3/Andre Dirrell v Arthur Abraham - DIRRELL SD (Abraham has never fought anyone like Dirrell and i think Dirrell's hand speed,height and reach advantages and tricky counter punching from the southpaw stance could bother Arthur.Depends if Dirrell really wants it though).
4/Sergio Martinez v Kelly Pavlik - MARTINEZ MD.
Dirrell and Martinez bumped the odds up as the underdogs.I am not neccessarily saying i think these guys will definitely win.It's just that if i picked Abraham and Pavlik in those fights,the odds would diminish considerably.
The odds i was quoted for that four fight accumulator bet: 29/1 (thats if you pick the method of victory - points or KO).
I would appreciate it if you would let me know your predictions on these fights and the ones listed below.Here are the rest of mine:-
5/Wladimir Klitshcko v Eddie Chambers: WLAD KO 9.
6/David Haye v John Ruiz: HAYE TKO 11.
7/Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins: HOPKINS UD.
8/Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana: BERTO UD.
9/Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson: CLOUD close UD or SD.
10/Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda: BUTE TKO 10.
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek: ADAMEK UD.
12/Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler: Really hard to call for me this one.......KESSLER SD.
13/Andre Ward v Alan Green: WARD UD.
14/Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather: MAYWEATHER UD.
15/Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron: WILLIAMS wide UD.
16/Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi: KHAN UD (maybe late TKO).
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell: ORTIZ MD.
18/Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV: MARQUEZ SD.
19/Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares: PEREZ UD.
I also recommend checking out the opinions of this American guy who posts on youtube for anyone interested in boxing betting.
His username: dwyer70905.
FanPosts are user-created content written by community members of Bad Left Hook, and are generally not the work of our editors. Please do not source FanPosts as the work of Bad Left Hook.
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I agree that Dirrell beats Abraham
I think he beats him handily too.
Dwyer is quite good, I have watched his stuff while thinking about fights failry often.
"Honey i forgot to duck" - Jack Dempsey
5/Wladimir Klitshcko v Eddie Chambers: WLAD KO 9. Be careful here.
6/David Haye v John Ruiz: HAYE TKO 11. Be very careful here
7/Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins: HOPKINS UD. Yes, but I hope not.
8/Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana: BERTO UD. Yes
9/Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson: CLOUD close UD or SD. No. Johnson by UD.
10/Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda: BUTE TKO 10.
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek: ARREOLA TKO 6 (might change my mind on this one as i can also see Adamek outboxing him for the UD,if he can avoid getting into a brawl). Arreola BY STOPPAGE.
12/Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler: Really hard to call for me this one…….KESSLER SD. FROCH BY STOPPAGE
13/Andre Ward v Alan Green: WARD UD. HOPE NOT BUT I AGREE
14/Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather: MAYWEATHER UD. YES
15/Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron: WILLIAMS wide UD. Williams by TKO
16/Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi: KHAN UD (maybe late TKO). Khan by UD
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell: ORTIZ MD. Can’t decide yet
18/Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV: MARQUEZ SD. Agree
19/Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares: PEREZ UD. Agree
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Feb 26, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions
Lot’s to mull over here Matt mate .
Interesting to me as I’m not exactly on top form with my calls of late .
Some are obviously easier to call than others for me .
Haye by UD just maybe late stoppage
Khan to ko Paulie
Bute by late stoppage or UD
Cloud by UD
Kessler UD
I see Mr Sares has just given his views – Like Arnie said " I’ll be back after some thought and some Jack ’n coke "
Nice one
by Sir Jack Daniels on Feb 26, 2010 1:17 PM EST reply actions
I admit i haven’t seen much of Chambers and i know styles make fights but i just can’t see a guy who was beaten fairly handily (on the scorecards at least) by Povetkin beating Wlad.I probably won’t bet on that one though.
What’s your prediction for Haye v Ruiz,Rambler?
Haye, but be very careful on this one. See my posts on the Club thread
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Feb 26, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I very very rarely lay real money on fights
And when I do, it’s always because either (a) I’m 100% confident of the winner or (b) the odds seem extremely skewed to me because of one fighter’s popularity. Because of this though, I almost never end up betting on underdogs, but I’ve only lost once (DLH over Pacquiao).
As for the predictions above, Alexander by UD is a very solid bet I think.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Also, based on past fights
If you’re picking Arreola to KO Adamek, I’d pick closer to the 8th or 9th. That’s when Adamek has occasionally ran out of steam, including in his last fight.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Brick, I reckon Adamek’s conditioning will be improved to accomodate that extra fighting weight this time out. His trainers would be crazy not to recognise that glitch in the Estrada fight. Against a swarmer like Arreola he’ll need to enter the ring at 110 % and if he does, his better schooling will come into play.
"Anytime you go thirty rounds with a guy, try to kill each other, and have the utmost respect for each other, no one understands that, but guys who have been to war understand it." - Micky Ward on Arturo Gatti.
I’m actuall a very good handicapper when I break fight down. I camne close to naling the rounds in Vlaero and JML’S last fights. But before I go out on the limb, I always break a fight down and generally will post it as a thread. or in my Cigar Club. I missed De La Hoya-Pac as well. But then I wqent on a rampage until Ward-Kessler which I also missed badly. Since then, I don’t think I have missed many, but they are getting much more difficult. My best so far was the Haye-Valuev fight which I nailed perfectly. Handicappers generally only talk about thier wins and conveniently forget their misses—and I am no exception. But it is a part of being a boxing addict that I like.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Feb 26, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah,i follow your previews and predictions and i know you are usually there or thereabouts.Yeah i have lost a few too(which i don’t like to mention:)) but on the betting website i use they keep a record of your bets and i am up over the last year – and most of that is from boxing.
I knew from reading your book that you were/are a boxing handicapper but can you explain what that means exactly?I understand handicapping in rugby or american football where you would give the underdog the start but how does it work with boxing?
I have since changed that to Adamek UD as i didn’t really think all that much about some of these fights before posting.Just watching Arreola against Minto now and i think he is too crude and Adamek will outbox him.
But he is a mugger (in the boxing sense) and he will come after the smaller Pole.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Feb 26, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
I just read that Adamek has hired Ronnie Shields as his new trainer.That should give him a tactical advantage,should it not?
I have heard of Shields numerous times in the past but don’t really know his style.He’s a quality trainer though,right?
bleh
Ronnie Shields gave some of the worst advice you’ll ever hear to Juan Diaz in the second Malignaggi fight.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Feb 26, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
He was really bad in that fight. He has a good reputation though. And he seemed to do a good job with Cintron vs. Angulo. I never expected to see Kermit Cintron outbox someone.
by taco pal on Feb 26, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
ronnie shields is the worst of well known “trainers” out there. its not going to help him at all. he has no clue what hes doing in a corner at all.
"Newspapermen ask dumb questions. They look up at the sun and ask if it is shining."
-Sonny Liston
.
by sonofapsycho on Feb 26, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
I've been known to get the odd one wrong !
Matt I’d go along with first 2 , but would have Abraham TKO Dirrell Round 10 and Pavlik KO Martinez round ???? say 8
But then mate – I backed Spinks to decision Tyson – lol
Lol!
I would not argue with anyone who picks Abraham and Pavlik to win those fights.I have talked about Martinez doing a similar job to Hopkins on Pav but i am forgetting that Hopkins was the bigger man in that fight whereas Martinez will be the smaller(but faster)man in his fight.I am having a bit of trouble picturing the winner in either of those matchups at the moment to be honest.
Abraham and Pavlik sounds right to me.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Feb 26, 2010 2:47 PM EST reply actions
You're reasoning on Dirrell
and Martinez, playing the odds makes sense, especially if you’re betting what you can afford to lose. I’ll be surprised but not shocked if either of them win. I agree that you have a solid pick in Alexander. What Ted has been saying about Chambers, hand speed, left hooks, a vulnerable Dr. Whichever he calls himself are very astute, but I’m always waiting for one of the Klit brothers to (Uh 0h!!) be Exposed.. Since TuaMonster was TuaMonster nobody has stopped Ruiz, yet speed, power and attrition could = a winner. I’d be surprised if Adamek beat Arreola, but I’ve been surprised before. If Williams is not working on defense, it will be interesting to see what happens when Cintron clocks him—but Kermit is in for a lot of whining and a moment of surrender otherwise, IMO.
I’d like to see Froch stop Kessler.
If Williams is not working on defense, it will be interesting to see what happens when Cintron clocks him—but Kermit is in for a lot of whining and a moment of surrender otherwise, IMO.
Pretty much exactly how I feel about that fight.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Feb 26, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
The way i see it in boxing,betting on the favourite in a 2 horse race really isn’t worth it for the amount you stand to win(unless you are betting big).Even in accumulators,you need a lot of picks to make up a decent price.
In that four fold bet the odds would go down from 29-1 to 16.5-1 if i changed the underdog picks of Dirrell and Martinez to instead pick the favourites,Abraham and Martinez.
I just think there is a good chance of the upset in both those fights and i can get close to double the odds by picking the outsiders.
I might change it around a bit yet.
super 6
Alrite Matt! some good picks there mate,
I’d personally like to see Kessler vs Abraham, reckon it would be a doozy with the pair of them going at it. I suppose you could say the same for Froch vs AA too.
Not too sure about Dirrell, he left it too little too late (on the agression side) against Froch lat time out.
Phil with an extra “l”.
Phill!(with the extra ‘l’)Good to hear from you old lad.BristolOne said he was gonna email you about this site.
Ted Sares invited me along and i am very pleased with it.Have a look around mate.I’m sure you will like it.
Kessler v Abraham would be a beaut but i need to see this Froch fight to see how the Ward loss affected Kessler.
Like you say,Froch v AA in the autumn should be barnburner too.
super duper 6
Matt, good to hear from you too mate, yep, Bristol’s a top dude keeping me informed.
I’m still new to this site, so bear with me. Plenty of friendly familiar names here as well.
I’m trying not to look around too much tonite as I’m recording prizefighter so I dont want to see the results.
Great to read Ted’s pieces too.
Looks like the “6” will be on primetime ppv again eh?
Looking forward to some good discussions.
Cheers!!
Primetime let me down with the Froch v Dirrell bill(didn’t get to see the Abraham v Taylor fight cos of their amateurishness)so i am reluctant to use them again.I will get the dvd through the week after and make do with that.I’ll be on the live threads though.I know,you can’t beat live boxing but they pissed me right off with paying for that but only being able to see half the show.Me mate didn’t get any coverage through at all up in Middlesborough.It might be a better set up now but ‘once bitten……….’:).
By the way,all the familiar faces(JC40,Goatsnake,etc) are on Ted’s Scotch and Cigar thread.
5/Wladimir Klitshcko v Eddie Chambers: WLAD KO 9. wldnt bet on which round, with all the talent Wlad has I rekon it could be anything from rnd 3 to a UD
6/David Haye v John Ruiz: HAYE TKO 11. I really like Haye on this one, maybe round 8
7/Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins: HOPKINS UD.
8/Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana: BERTO UD.
9/Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson: CLOUD close UD or SD. with the work rate Cloud showed when he won the title, I like him for a UD against an old Johnson
10/Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda: BUTE TKO 10.
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek: ADAMEK UD. hard to call this one, Arreola has potential and could get the W in this
12/Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler: Really hard to call for me this one…….KESSLER SD. I h8 betting against a fellow brit, but i do lyk Kessler in a really close fight, but in a UD as its in Denmark
13/Andre Ward v Alan Green: WARD UD.
14/Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather: MAYWEATHER UD. I really can’t bet against Floyyd in this one, despite how much I like Sugar
15/Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron: WILLIAMS wide UD. maybe a stopage for Williams
16/Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi: KHAN UD (maybe late TKO). like this one
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell: ORTIZ MD. Ortiz hasn’t convinced me yet, the potential is there to be a p4p contender, but is he there mentally?? hard for me this one
18/Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV: MARQUEZ SD.
19/Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares: PEREZ UD.
My picks Matt
1)Alexander v Urango: ALEXANDER UD
2) Pacquiao v Clottey: PacMan UD
3)Dirrell v Abraham: AA TKO 9
4) Pavlik v Martinez: MARTINEZ SD
5/Wladimir Klitshcko v Eddie Chambers: WLAD close UD.
6/David Haye v John Ruiz: RUIZ SD (but I hope Haye wins so Tua can face him)
7/Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins: HOPKINS TKO 11.
8/Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana: BERTO UD.
9/Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson: CLOUD UD .
10/Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda: BUTE KO 10 (body shot) .
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek: ADAMEK UD. Improved conditioning, better boxing.
12/Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler: KESSLER SD.
13/Andre Ward v Alan Green: WARD UD.
14/Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather: MAYWEATHER UD.
15/Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron: WILLIAMS close UD. (both down)
16/Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi: KHAN TKO 10
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell: ORTIZ TKO 9.
18/Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV: VASQUEZ SD.
19/Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares: PEREZ UD
"Anytime you go thirty rounds with a guy, try to kill each other, and have the utmost respect for each other, no one understands that, but guys who have been to war understand it." - Micky Ward on Arturo Gatti.
Cheers Goaty.
I have to admit i sort of nicked my Adamek prediction off you:).i was going for Arreola TKO 6 but then i saw your post on Ted’s thread,watched a bit of Arreola v Minto and i agree with your take.Chris is crude and can be exploited by the right fighter.
I was gonna go for a B Hop late KO too.Would not suprise me.
Solid picks from yourself there mate (apart for Ruiz,hahaha!).
The Quiet Man cometh...
LOL Matt! – It aint gonna be pretty, it most definitely will be ugly (key) and folk will grimace in pain at the mugging. Haye has the talent no doubt, but I can see Ruiz crowding him, taking him out of his game and dragging him into that alley. My shout if I’m wrong mate and I won’t rub it in when the Storm run over your Leeds mob lol !
Thanks for the props Matt, cheers bro.
"Anytime you go thirty rounds with a guy, try to kill each other, and have the utmost respect for each other, no one understands that, but guys who have been to war understand it." - Micky Ward on Arturo Gatti.
Thought a number
of people would have taken Glen Johnson but I think you picked right on that one.
Good group of fights to think about.
1/Devon Alexander v Juan Urango – alexander UD. urango will have his moments, much more than in the berto fight, but comes up short.
2/Manny Pacquiao v Joshua Clottey – pac SD – going to be much much closer than anyone thinks.
3/Andre Dirrell v Arthur Abraham – Dirrell UD – horrible style match up for abraham. dirrell was my pick to win the super 6, if he doesn’t get hosed in england he would have.
4/Sergio Martinez v Kelly Pavlik – pavlik late tko. pav too strong for him and sergio gets hit too much. stops him late.
5/Wladimir Klitshcko v Eddie Chambers: chambers ud. long shot that could happen. i dont think it will happen but still can. im partial to my philly boys, even though chambers isn’t really my cup of tea. hes going to have to jab first and move like hell for 12 rounds to pull it off.
6/David Haye v John Ruiz: haye tko 5. ruiz is old and more horrible than haye is.
7/Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins: hopkins tko 5. not a competitive fight anymore.
8/Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana: berto ko 5. quintana crumbles after a while.
9/Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson: cloud UD. glen has seen better days. cloud is very very underrated.
10/Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda: bute tko 7. miranda is not good.
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek: arreola ko 6. not a good idea for adamek to move to heavy.
12/Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler: kessler tko 10. this is going to be all kessler.
13/Andre Ward v Alan Green: ward UD. not competitive.
14/Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather: mayweather UD. 5 years ago id pick mosley.
15/Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron: williams UD. if the fghts at welter i like cintrons chances
16/Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi: paulie UD. not sold on khan at all. not even close.
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell: Campbell tko 8. campbell schools him. ortiz quits.
18/Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV: vasquez tko 10. he seems to got more left in the tank. wont be surprised if rafa gets ko’ed early either.
19/Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares: perez UD.
"Newspapermen ask dumb questions. They look up at the sun and ask if it is shining."
-Sonny Liston
.
I agree that Dirrell landed the better shots against Froch(Froch didn’t really land anything flush and solid).I just think his running and holding might have made it hard for the judges to give him some rounds that he would have otherwise won.Dirrell’s biggest opponent might be himself.
i think you’re confusing boxing with running.
running is oscar de la hoya in the last 4 rounds vs trinidad. boxing is dirrell schooling froch.
"Newspapermen ask dumb questions. They look up at the sun and ask if it is shining."
-Sonny Liston
.
by sonofapsycho on Feb 27, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Dirrell wasn't running in that fight
But he fell without being hit 6 times, was constantly clinching, fell all over Froch, complained to the ref, etc. I thought Dirrell won wide as well, but don’t pretend that Dirrell fought a clean fight.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
No,i know what i saw and i know the difference.He was running for part of the fight.He was also grabbing every 30 seconds and wingeing and whining.
But
i still thought he won by 3-4 rounds.My point is when you box negatively like Dirrell did,a lot of judges don’t like it.It didn’t help that he was on Froch’s turf,obviously………All the more reason for him to go out and rip the title off Froch instead of trying to fiddle and spoil his way to a win.
My point is when you box negatively like Dirrell did,a lot of judges don’t like it.
Agh! Boxing negatively is not a concpet in boxing refereeing. Never has been and never will be. The four criteria which we all know are pretty much all that matters. I am often open to different scoring interpretations of fights but I think that the only referee who scores that fight for Froch is a biased or incompetent one. As far as I’m concerned there is no real excuse for them.
"Honey i forgot to duck" - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on Mar 2, 2010 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
Fair Enough.
Like i said,i thought it was pretty obvious Dirrell deserved it.I think some judges do have their favourite styles though…….So do some promoters:).
Agreed
I view him as undefeated and think he’s gonna look really good against Abraham, provided he doesn’t fall over too much.
"Honey i forgot to duck" - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on Mar 2, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
We shall see
I think Dirrell is a live dog, but I still favor Abraham. Dirrell seems to hate getting hit too much to fare that well against a big puncher like Abraham. If he can move in and out effectively and get away before Abraham has the chance to counter, he can do really well. If he follows the Elvin Ayala footprint (who was doing really well through about 8 rounds when he started to get worn down), he can do well.
I still like Froch to beat Abraham though. If I were to design a fighter who I think is a nightmare for Abraham, he’d look a lot like Froch. Good chin, aggressive, loopy punches, longer reach, punches hard. I wish he had more footspeed, but other than that, I can see him beating Abraham pretty badly.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Not after Kessler beats the crap out of Froch....
I think if AA and Froch fight tomorrow, you’re right, but when Froch has taken a hiding off Kessler, I think all that bravado will be punctured like a ballon. I think Kessler beats him up, and then I think Abraham beats him up too.
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
And you are from the U.K.?!?
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yep.
And for risk of sounding confrontational, which this isn’t intended to be; Is that relevant?
Or, to put it another way, do you think my opinions should be different because I’m from the UK?
Or are you simply surprised that my opinions are what they are given my location?
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
simply surprised — and you need to lighten up mate. You arewound too tight. This is all fun,
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
I already said I wasn't being confrontational.
I was simply asking the question. Am I not allowed to be curious why you asked me the question?
And if I know that the way I phrase the question could be taken wrong, and say in advance that wasn’t how it was meant, then why in God’s name would you still choose to take it that way?
As for this all being fun: I know. I was here before you.
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
I think you can use it as a debit on ring generalship and aggressiveness
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
The four criteria are subject to diffrenet interpretations.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Not open enough that someone can lose for not being "positive"
As far as I can tell the whole negative fighting idea was just something Froch came out with to explanation for the awful decision, I had certainly never heard of it before, and I enjoy reading up on judging and refereeing.
"Honey i forgot to duck" - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on Mar 4, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
By Froch's logic, Floyd has been beaten 11 times already....
and Willie Pep? Never been a fighter, that guy…..
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
What does being “positive” mean to youu? When a guy “runs,” the chaser generally gets the nod, unless the rabbit is throwing conters as he runs. I saw Froch being the aggressor and Dirrell being the runner; I also liked the decision. That said, I know I am in the distinct minority.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Pep was a master counter puncher whpo would land after slipping 4 or 5 punches in a row. PBF was never a runner as far as I can recall. Again, countering is what take the rabbit out of running. IMO.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I was simply saying that Froch doesn’t seem to value “not getting hit” as part of what makes a fighter.
I remember a quote from him afterwards which went something like “If he wasn’t man enough to trade, he doesn’t deserve the win” (I paraphrase, maybe someone could find the quote if they are so inclined…)
So by that logic, Pep, Floyd, Hopkins, Leonard, Toney, and other exponents of the “not getting hit” side of the sport, or, to put it another way, the ones who didn’t think winning fights was all about opening up and trying to smash the other guy into oblivion at risk of getting KO’d themselves, weren’t man enough to win. I would refute this, by saying that probably all of those guys are/were more ‘man’ than Froch, and that he is simply too fucking stupid to get it.
Hit without being hit. The saying speaks for itself.
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
ok
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Please!
You could not call that a ‘schooling’ from Dirrell.A schooling is what Hopkins did to Pavlik.Dirrell and Froch both fought terrible in an awful fight.Dirrell just bad.Froch was even worse.
But you could tell that Dirrell had much the better ability.He just didn’t use it often enough.Hopefully he shows what he can really do against Abraham because if that was the best effort he has to offer,i can see Arthur taking him out.
lol i like how you reply 4 different times like it was your first reply.
as for the first, dirrell won. by a lot. plain and simple.
i can see AA taking him out as well. i wouldn’t bet on it though.
"Newspapermen ask dumb questions. They look up at the sun and ask if it is shining."
-Sonny Liston
.
by sonofapsycho on Feb 28, 2010 7:44 AM EST up reply actions
1/Devon Alexander v Juan Urango – Alexander wide UD. This fight won’t even be close, Alexander has waaayyyy too much speed
2/Manny Pacquiao v Joshua Clottey – Pac UD. I’ve been wrong so much about Pac that I’ll just go with him this time even if I think Clottey could give him a fight.
3/Andre Dirrell v Arthur Abraham – Dirrell UD Wouldn’t be surprised if Dirrell KO’s Abraham because Dirrell will destroy Abraham’s shell defense and force him to open up more than he wants to
4/Sergio Martinez v Kelly Pavlik – Pavlik UD – Martinez might win this fight but no way is he going to get a decision unless he got magically better since the Williams fight
5/Wladimir Klitshcko v Eddie Chambers – Wlad UD – Too good and too tall
6/David Haye v John Ruiz – Haye SD – Not sure about Haye’s ability at the HW level and can see the quiet man taking a good deal of rounds
7/Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins – Hopkins KO 6 – Its terrible that this fight is happening….
8/Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana – Berto KO 4 – Berto is a beast, Quintana is not….do the math(s)
9/Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson – Cloud UD – Underrated Cloud takes it to Glen much like Chad
10/Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda – Bute KO 8 – The difficult thing about this fight is when to pick the KO….
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek – Arreola KO 10 – Arreola’s fitness wins this fight (read that a couple times and let it sink in)
12/Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler – Kessler UD – Viking Warrior angry! Doesn’t have the power or craftiness to catch Froch clean but he will dominate this fight
13/Andre Ward v Alan Green – Ward KO7 – Ward will show off a little power to cement his place in the next round
14/Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather – Floyd UD – Shane is very good but Floyd is great. Very good always beats great.
15/Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron – Williams UD – Volume punching wins almost all the rounds for Williams
16/Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi – Paulie UD – I’m buying into the Paulie resurgence and Khan has not looked good against halfway decent competition
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell – Campbell KO 8 – Ortiz looked terrible his last 2 times out and Campbell has something to prove…again…
18/Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV – Rafa KO 9 – I don’t think Izzy has got anything left in the tank. Rafa takes it to him
19/Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares – Perez UD – Perez throws 20 billion punches and takes most of the rounds
Ones I would put money on:
Alexander v. Urango
Ward v. Green
Bute v. Miranda
Berto v. Quintana
Bhop v. Jones
All virtual locks
Ortiz looked a lot of things on Thursday, but I wouldn’t say one was terrible. He could have knocked that guy out any time he wanted to. He carried Alatorre through 9 rounds and then decided to unleash his power, and it ended.
Of course Alatorre is so bad I wouldn’t say Ortiz looked good, because he’s beaten lots of guys better than that already. It was such a useless fight.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Feb 28, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe terrible isn’t the right word, not a top-tier guy is probably closer to true. Anyways I don’t see him beating Campbell with the way he has been fighting lately, unless Campbell gets real old real fast in the ring (A legitimate possibility).
by Waldo Rastel on Feb 28, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty Good Picks
but i don’t know what you mean about Kessler not having the power to catch Froch clean.I would have thought timing and speed had more to do with that.I think he catches Froch clean plenty.They are made for one another,imo.
I don’t agree about Khan not looking good against ‘halfway decent competition’ either.Kotelnik was proven as a solid 140 lber with a win over Maiadana and a close loss to Witter.Khan more or less shut him out.
Kessler will catch him but he doesn’t have the power or craftiness to KO Froch. Kotelnik is not the greatest fighter. He beat Maidana in a close decision in Germany….so yeah not too much respect for him. Paulie will be a humongous set up in competition for Khan and I don’t think coming to the US while being a prick on the price ($1 million guarantee?) is not going to help his chances.
by Waldo Rastel on Feb 28, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I got Jones over Brussells, but I didn’t predict it in my club. Just in a post. That was a slam dunk.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Feb 28, 2010 12:26 PM EST reply actions
By the way, one of the most important things I do when making a predicion is to look at and analyz the boxer’s last fight. Mabuza-Holt would have suggested that Hoilt was in for a rough go.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 1, 2010 12:56 PM EST reply actions
My picks.
1/ Devon Alexander v Juan Urango – ALEXANDER by decision.
2/ Manny Pacquiao v Joshua Clottey – PACQUIAO by decision.
3/ Andre Dirrell v Arthur Abraham – DIRRELL by decision.
4/ Sergio Martinez v Kelly Pavlik – PAVLIK by decision.
5/ Wladimir Klitschko v Eddie Chambers: KLITSCHKO by stoppage.
6/ David Haye v John Ruiz: HAYE by stoppage.
7/ Roy Jones v Bernard Hopkins: JONES by decision.
8/ Andre Berto v Carlos Quintana: BERTO by stoppage.
9/ Tavoris Cloud v Glen Johnson: Now not happening, apparently. Would have picked a Cloud decision win.
10/ Lucian Bute v Edison Miranda: BUTE by stoppage.
11/Chris Arreola v Tomasz Adamek: ADAMEK UD.
12/ Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler: KESSLER by stoppage.
13/ Andre Ward v Alan Green: WARD by stoppage.
14/ Shane Mosley v Floyd Mayweather: MAYWEATHER by decision.
15/ Paul Williams v Kermit Cintron: WILLIAMS by stoppage.
16/ Amir Khan v Paulie Malignaggi: KHAN by stoppage.
17/Victor Ortiz v Nate Campbell: ORTIZ by decision.
18/ Israel Vasquez v Rafael Marquez IV: Can’t choose. Probably leaning toward Marquez, but I’d rather see Vasquez win.
19/ Yohnny Perez v Abner Mares: PEREZ by stoppage.
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
I missed the Adamek/Arreola fight....
I go for ARREOLA by stoppage.
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
I tend to just pick the method of victory when betting.
I was returning an ok margin when betting on winners, but that one big upset (Oscar/Pac, or even Hopkins/Pavlik) can kill a lot of profit in one go.
I now think that since I consider myself reasonably knowledgable, I should use that knowledge to effect financial gain. My method is to pick the method of victory I think is most likely (normally can get evens or better on whichever one you like), and then pick another to cover the stake of the first.
Example; When Berto fought Urango, you could all but rule out any MoV that wasn’t Berto on points (younger, faster, slicker) or Urango by KO, TKO or DQ (since Urango was too slow to win on points, had too good a chin to be stopped, but could land the massive haymaker if given tha chance).
Bet big on Berto on points (which was about 7/5, from memory), and then have a bet on Urango by stoppage at odds of about 7/1, just to cover your original stake. 100 on Berto/dec, 13 on Urango/stoppage, you have a really likely bet, with the big profit coming on the most likely result.
I don’t particularly like individual round betting, although I did get up Klitschko TKO-9 vs Chagaev (@16/1) recently. I like method of victory because the odds always seem to represent good value, and you get much more chance of winning (If that guy stays on his feet, I win… or… if that guy just goes down, I win….). Group round betting is ok too, because in some fights you can really get a feel for what might happen. An example is Abraham/Taylor, where we all knew in advance that AA would come on strong at the end, and we all knew Taylor would gas. A solid shout of “Abraham Rds 10-12” would return a good price in that fight, and I really fancied it, but bottled out and backed Abraham by stoppage instead. Thought I’d done my money, too, until that motherfucker of a right hand shot through the gate….
Some people are acting like Pacquiao should be expected to have just gone, "Yeah sure, let’s do something I’ve never done before because your dad made some dumbass baseless comment."
(SC, 28/12/09; http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/12/27/1221143/mayweather-pacquiao-update-bob#comments)
Here are three that I reference in my new (and third) book:
Evans, Gavin, Dancing Shoes Is Dead: A Tale of Fighting Men in South Africa, Black Swan, 2003. 450 pages.
Johnston, J. J. and Sean Curtin, Chicago Boxing. Arcadia Publishing. February 28, 2005. 128 pages.
Ross, Ron, Bummy Davis vs. Murder, Inc.: The Rise and Fall of the Jewish Mafia and an Ill-Fated Prizefighter (paperback). St. Martin’s Griffin. December 14,2004. 432 page
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 3:01 PM EST reply actions
Dementia-it’s a bitch.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 4, 2010 8:23 PM EST reply actions
The bookies never lose.
They know the probabilities probably better than you or I and their odds reflect that. Sorry if it’s a little obvious to say so. Any outside bet is as likely to be wrong as their odds also predict. One day you get it right. Big deal. Bet in your head, not with your money.
I want a bigger juke-box. Telecasters rule the world - in the right hands. Don't tell me I play bum notes - I KNOW!
Actually, the bookies don’t play as big a role as you might think. The odds are a factor of how the fans bet—so any late shift in betting will change the odds and the “bookies” will act accordingly.
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 8, 2010 10:31 PM EST reply actions
Mainly correct, Ted.
Opening odds are the bookies’ estimates though. All odds are then calculated to give the bookies their return so that whatever the results overall, they walk away wqith more cash than the pool of punters. And, of course, the greater the betting, the lower the odds become. I’ve never seen a poor bookie.
I want a bigger juke-box. Telecasters rule the world - in the right hands. Don't tell me I play bum notes - I KNOW!
by Randy Loathsome on Mar 9, 2010 1:58 AM EST up reply actions
Indeed
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Mar 9, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
True,
and that’s why i said at the beginning of the post that i only bet small.The bookies do make mistakes now and again these are what i look out for.
I only bet when i really fancy an outcome to happen,at good value and i just used all these fights as an example – i’m not gonna bet on all of em!:).
I have lost more bets than i have won but when you analyse a fight and pick rd12,for example,as i did with Froch v Taylor,£10 at 25-1 soon wipes out the losses i had.
I’m not trying to encourage people to gamble,Randy.I am just trying to make a picking fights a bit more interesting.
I explained all this at the beginning.Bet small and with what you can afford to lose,imo,because as you say,the bookies,more often than not come out on top.
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