Examining the Comeback: Is Vitali Klitschko All He's Cracked Up to Be?
Before I begin, let me say that I think Vitali Klitschko is firmly and unquestionably the No. 2 heavyweight in the world. I am not questioning whether or not Vitali is still a top heavyweight. He is. I am questioning how good he is, and whether or not he deserves to be seen in the "unbeatable" sort of light that he largely has been since returning in 2008.
Vitali Klitschko's comeback has been some inspired stuff. After retiring for just shy of four years due to injuries that figured to keep him out of the sport for good, he's returned to go 4-0 and hardly lose a round in the process, knocking off a fearsome titlist, a crafty veteran, and two unbeaten young Americans.
The other day, Vitali said he felt his younger brother, Wladimir, was clearly the best heavyweight in the world today, and that Wladimir was "better than" he is anymore. He made no bones about it. Some people questioned the validity of that. Many still pick Vitali over Wladimir in a perfect world where perhaps they could fight.
I could not disagree any more than I do. I don't mean to sound smug or anything, but have I been the only one watching Vitali's comeback fights? Yes, he's been dominant, but against what opposition?
Two of the four fighters he's faced were tailor made for him and beat themselves as much as anything. Samuel Peter fought about the dumbest fight I've ever seen when he faced Vitali on October 11, 2008, repeatedly doing nothing but walking into heavy, slow Klitschko jabs. There was one wonderful photo from that fight that pretty much summed up the entire eight rounds of dominance, before Peter threw in the towel and went to Top Rank to rebuild his career:
(AP Photo)
Arreola did much the same. Over and over, he stepped into Klitschko's punches without a care in the world it seemed, until after 10 rounds, with Arreola's face bloodied, bruised and swollen, his corner pulled him out of there, mercifully stopping the beating from continuing. In both fights, it was tough to find a round to give Arreola or Peter. They were both powerful, tough heavyweights, and both knelt at the feet of the creaky old man, whose superior boxing knowledge made them look like scrubs.
But then there's the other two fights. Juan Carlos Gomez came to stink out the joint. That was his plan. He thought he could fight ugly enough to squeak a decision. And Vitali looked stiff as a board early in that fight, too. Gomez, instead of attacking, stayed with Plan A. If he had adjusted early, he might have been able to keep Vitali from ever getting out of the blocks. Instead, Gomez's boring gameplan allowed Klitschko to loosen up, at which point the big man wore Gomez out. He took JCG to the woodshed and beat him down, earning a TKO-9 victory. That fight came between the Peter and Arreola fights.
Most recently, Vitali had all kinds of trouble with Kevin Johnson. It wasn't the sort of trouble that makes for a close fight. Vitali won every round. Johnson didn't come to fight. But it also struck me that as easily as Vitali was able to beat the younger man that night, it also might have shown a better, braver fighter than Johnson a way around the Vitali Klitschko aura.
Johnson just didn't allow Klitschko to do anything. Imagine if "Kingpin" had come to throw punches at any point in that fight. He really might have had a chance.
All I'm saying is that someone better than Johnson, bigger than Gomez, and smarter than Peter or Arreola could give Vitali Klitschko some serious problems. He's not getting any younger, and that back isn't getting any looser. Klitschko is old, shop-worn (more due to injuries than punishment taken), and thrives only when fighters allow him to do what he wants to at will. In both the Gomez and Johnson bouts -- again, clear victories, but really uninspiring performances -- he found himself across from someone that didn't just come at him and get hit. He didn't look nearly impressive in those fights as he did against Arreola and Peter.
Is there anyone like that? Wladimir Klitschko, of course, is all of those things (better than Johnson, bigger than Gomez, smarter than Peter/Arreola). I would take Wladimir over Vitali without a second thought anymore, because while Vitali may still have the power to test Wladimir's chin, I don't think he'd ever get to it. Could Vitali get past the Wladimir jab? Sure, as a younger man. But like his brother, he's not exactly a risk-taker anymore. And I don't think he has Wlad's one-punch power anymore either, partially because almost everything he throws anymore is a pure arm punch.
Depending on how Haye looks against John Ruiz, I think I'd pick David Haye over Vitali now. I don't think it'd be anything close to exciting. I think he'd use his speed, his movement, and occasional bursts of offense to grind out an ugly decision, much as he did with Nikolai Valuev. That is, if Haye really has the guts to attack Vitali, even in bursts. And that's the big X-factor in that potential matchup.
Other than that, though, there really isn't anyone out there that fits the bill. So that means that Vitali Klitschko is certainly the No. 2 heavyweight in the world, but I feel we're not really saying much when we say that, either. It's a weight class full of guys who just aren't right to beat him, for one reason, another, or several. It's another instance of the current version of Vitali Klitschko maybe not being all that great, but he's sure as hell a lot better than the vast majority of today's heavyweight field, and if he's not actually better, his style, his size, and the limitations of others make him a prohibitive favorite over just about anybody.
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I will quickly say,
and then hide, that I always felt that Vitali was generally overrated.
I’m not sure about your feeling concerning Haye/Vitali, but I’d like to see them fight.
Vitali has never been been down on the cards or down on the floor…. I think he is better than Wald. Wald would be on the floor if he gets hit flush by Vitali.
"Boxing is dirty," said Casamayor. " The day I’m not ready to be a dirty fighter is the day I don’t fight anymore because it will mean that I have no heart for it anymore."
Vitali doesn’t hit anyone flush anymore if they don’t just let him.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 1, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
His chin isn't that bad
And Vitali doesn’t really hit that hard.
I wouldn’t be suprised if Pac turned out to be the incredible hulk in a very good disguise. - Sigidy
by Drunken cutman on Apr 2, 2010 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you're right about Wladimir beating Vitali...
… or maybe you’re wrong. ‘Cause you could say as much against Wladimir’s chances versus Vitali. I could go on and on, but what I’m not sure about is your opinion of Haye vs. Vitali. The thing is, everyone has a seeming good plan and a seemingly good chance to beat Vitali, but they fail to execute it when they’re in the ring getting punished by Vitali. How would Haye react, with his suspect chin, especially at heavyweights, when he starts getting punched by Vitali, whose arm punches are still very powerful? I’m not sure, so I’m easily giving Vitali, as old and shopworn as he is, the benefit of the doubt (if there is a doubt) against all heavyweights in the world, except for his brother (which I thought before was for Vitali, but with this post’s contrbution no less, is something of a pick-’em now).
=)
How would Haye react, with his suspect chin
Well, that’s what I said would be the most important thing. Physically I think Haye has everything necessary to grind out an ugly decision against Vitali. Mentally I don’t know if he can do it.
whose arm punches are still very powerful
Based on what? The only guy he’s knocked down since coming back is a winded Juan Carlos Gomez. He didn’t have Peter or Arreola in any real trouble, he just slapped them around until they submitted, because they were both too stupid or too stubborn to stop walking into his punches.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Based on what?
Based on the fact that his opponents can’t execute their game plans when they get punched by Vitali. There was a feature before on the Ring magazine online about the Klitschkos, and on Vitali and how the power of his punches are deceptive just because he doesn’t do it full-swing. Plenty of boxing scouts, trainers, and observers attest that it’s very powerful and it’s enough to stop any opponent on their tracks, if not knocking them down or out. Sure, the KOs were absent against the guys you’ve mentioned, but the slow mo replays (especially against Arreola) give you an idea just how powerful those punches are.
Based on the fact that his opponents can’t execute their game plans when they get punched by Vitali.
I don’t know that Peter, Gomez or Arreola really had game plans, to be honest. Peter and Arreola flat-out did nothing right, and barely looked like they were trying. It was clear early that Gomez’s only plan was to stink out the place and try to survive, sort of what Johnson did.
There was a feature before on the Ring magazine online about the Klitschkos, and on Vitali and how the power of his punches are deceptive just because he doesn’t do it full-swing. Plenty of boxing scouts, trainers, and observers attest that it’s very powerful and it’s enough to stop any opponent on their tracks, if not knocking them down or out.
This is not really my point. I am not saying he hits like Paul Malignaggi the heavyweight. I am saying his power isn’t really a difference-maker. It’s not the power that’s stopping people from beating him. It’s enough to keep guys honest, and to hit the reset button on their casual strolls into his left glove, but that’s it.
I am saying that his standing in boxing may be a bit overstated at this point; that he’s not as good as bad opponents are making him look. That he absolutely would not beat Wladimir Klitschko, who does everything Vitali does right now I’m not talking about eight years ago, but better, and who would not stand there and walk into Vitali’s jabs over and over and over again until his face turned into puffy mush and his corner had to stop the fight.
the slow mo replays (especially against Arreola)
A slow motion replay of Cris Arreola getting punched by anything is going to look pretty ugly.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Who is better? Toney?
"If you sit there and watch a person take about an hour to tie his shoestrings, then you realize that whatever problems you got ain't that significant"
---Vernon Forrest 2006
by The Midnight Rambler on Apr 2, 2010 10:35 AM EDT reply actions
I said specifically that he’s clearly still the No. 2 and it would take a special fighter to beat him.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
While I think it’s sort of a stretch to say that he’s “not all that great” here in 2010. I think he’s still a pretty great fighter, but he is Old Guy great. He’s conformed his style to his oldness better than almost any heavy can think of short of Holmes and George Foreman Part II. I recall seeing reading a statistic somewhere that showed that since the Doc’s comeback he has the best hit/not-hit proportion of any Top 10 ranked fighter in any division (in terms of hit percentage versus opponents hit percentage). It didn’t really surprise me, because I’ve hardly seen him get hit in any of his comeback fights, and all of them were against top divisional opponents. That’s pretty impressive no matter how you slice it. It’s hard to get around that.
His natural awkwardness is probably his best weapon at this point versus “Wlad Smith,” just like it is versus anyone he fights. He is also genuinely hard to time, and that might help him versus Wlad, who likes to reset and reset and reset, and who I think he does better against silkier guys. Still, I have to agree with this overall picture. Wlad removes the size advantage that is so key to Vitali’s defense, has a pure and multipurpose jab, as opposed to Vitali’s which is mainly there check and goad and harrass. It is good at doing this, but with guys who aren’t as big as he is.
So I agree with SC’s prediction – which scares the holy hell out of me. I don’t think Vitali could take his little bro, these days. Wlad isn’t going to fall for that game he plays because he doesn’t have to. Unlike Peter or Arreola, Wlad can box him from the outside.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
I recall seeing reading a statistic somewhere that showed that since the Doc’s comeback he has the best hit/not-hit proportion of any Top 10 ranked fighter in any division
Yeah when Mayweather and Vitali fought on back-to-back weekends last year, I got CompuBox numbers on both, and it amazed me how similar their numbers were for their recent fights. They go about it in almost entirely different ways, but the end results wound up being the same.
I’ve hardly seen him get hit in any of his comeback fights, and all of them were against top divisional opponents. That’s pretty impressive no matter how you slice it. It’s hard to get around that.
This is where I disagree. It is not unimpressive, but I don’t see it as genuinely impressive. If the opposition is sub-standard throughout the entire division, what are we really learning? That Vitali is better than Arreola and Peter? He is, and that’s all well and good, and I don’t dislike him or anything. I don’t have some vendetta against Vitali Klitschko. But what have Cris Arreola and Sam Peter ever really done? Peter is still living largely off the reputation he picked up when he knocked Wladimir down three times (though I’d say he doesn’t get enough credit for the Toney rematch win), and Arreola’s best win is Travis Walker, Chazz Witherspoon, Jameel McCline or Brian Minto.
Marco Antonio Rubio was a top ten middleweight when he fought Kelly Pavlik, but Pavlik gets little legitimate credit for that win. I think it’s similar; Pavlik’s “Kevin Johnson” would be Miguel Espino, and his “Albert Sosnowski” would be Gary Lockett. (I’m just “thinking out loud” here.)
He is also genuinely hard to time
Now this I will give ground on, as it is of course very true and I’m a blockhead for not considering that. I still don’t think he beats Wladimir, but it’s another wrinkle to his overall game, and a pretty important one at that.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
But what have Cris Arreola and Sam Peter ever really done?
Well, it’s worth mentioning that in the same hit-not-hit chart I saw, Arreola also rated very high on that list, in the top 5 if I recall correctly. So, while his list of scalps coming into that fight wasn’t exactly stunning, he was beating them fairly badly. Yes, I know we also saw holes and problems with Chris in those fights, but he still outclassed them about as widely as he should have. As for Peter, well, he did knock Wlad down three times. He was still routed, because his skills are fairly poor, but he is a big bruising bull who got completely shut out by Vitali. I mean, he lost every second of every round to him, and quit from the painful, hamburger-meat-faced beating he was getting. Peter was a legit top divisional fighter and sitting beltholder and Vitali walked in off a four year retirement and just trashed him. I mean just literally made him look worthless in every way. It may not have been a titanic feat, but it was impressive to me. And I don’t think I am easily impressed.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
hit-not-hit chart I saw, Arreola also rated very high on that list, in the top 5 if I recall correctly.
Against guys who were fringe contenders on a generous day.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s the chart we’re talking about, just in case anyone wants to reference it.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
And it’s worth noting that Mayweather and Vitali went up pretty high in the next two weeks after that, while Arreola dropped pretty hard.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe not up higher, but at least stayed the dominant 1-2, while Arreola (who was in the same league against lesser opponents) dropped big. Also worth noting that only two of Vitali’s five fights measured there were from the last five years.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that I really care about this statistic, or any set really. I mean they are fun to look at and sometimes raise interesting questions, but they don’t tell the whole story or anything close to it. But in a game of “hit and don’t get hit” it is one of those that raises a few interesting questions in my opinion.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
Arreola was #3 in the chart, after Floyd Mayweather and Vitali Klitschko. Any drop would have been severe from #3. And it was severe because Vitali made it that way.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
It was severe because he fought someone worth a crap. I’m not saying 1-2-3, I’m saying Mayweather was 27, Vitali +26, Arreola +25. The rest of the field was way behind that, and by all rights, ALL rights, Cris Arreola had no business up there. He was there because he was fighting guys that let him land 53% of the time, which is absurd. Defensively (28%) he was already well behind Floyd (16%, which is nuts) and Vitali (21).
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
And Arreola surely climbed back up the chart after his win over Brian Minto, since Minto let him land about 112% of punches if I recall correctly.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
I mean, he is making guys miss who are much younger than him. He has the leg mobility of a hammer nailed into a board… it’s not like he is running and hiding under his armpits like Pin to avoid getting hit. He is making these guys miss, punishing them when they do, and making them question their own tactics. Vitali controls his own wheelhouse very well.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
"Kevin Johnson" would be Miguel Espino
That’s an affront to Miguel Espino, who tried like hell and fought bravely despite being outgunned and having little natural ability. Where KJ was the opposite – lots of natural ability and skill, no heart, guts or dignity whatsoever.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
I only mean that both were completely undeserving of the fight. Actually the more I think about it, Espino is Sosnowski (undeserving and everyone knows it), and Johnson is Lockett, which still doesn’t match up great but they both gave up pretty easily at the first fright, just going about it in different ways.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 2, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on, the only reason in the entire world that Lockett got ranked was as part of a deal to get Pavlik-Calzaghe on the board. That was literally just a scam, it had nothing to do with anything remotely related to boxing. It was just a total joke. Johnson got in because 1) He’s American and 2) a few sportswriters (through various degrees of intoxication) saw things they liked about him. I didn’t think Johnson had much chance at all, but it just wasn’t at all on the level of WTF that Rocket Lockett was. That was just WWF nonsense and a total waste of time.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
Johnson and Lockett got fights they didn’t earn through different means of not earning it. Both fought as if they knew they had no chance at all. To be crude about it, both shit their pants when they actually had to be in the ring with the other guy.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
yeah but you said:
Johnson just didn’t allow Klitschko to do anything. Imagine if “Kingpin” had come to throw punches at any point in that fight. He really might have had a chance.
I disagree with that statement actually. I think if Pin came to throw punches he probably would have been brutalized and mauled, and I think he knew that after swallowing the second right hand. Johnson was not only too green to fight Klitshcko, but just not good enough. Not strong enough and not good enough, and probably won’t ever be.
Lockett on the other hand could’ve walked into that ring wearing a football helmet and carrying a harpoon and still wouldn’t have been even money. It was the sort of mismatch that almost makes you angry. Klitschko-Johnson wasn’t a mismatch on that level or anything close to it, and the oddsmakers knew it. Both were fighting out of their class, but that happens a lot in boxing and the similarities end there. Lockett didn’t even remotely belong in that ring.
But Arreola, Sam Peter and All-Time Cruiser Great Gomez were not “fighting out of their class” though. Getting outclassed by a much better fighter isn’t the same as fighting out of your class, unless we now want to say that the Klitschko brothers are in a class all by themselves.
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
I'm just happy
that Wlad has finally met a nice girl.
By the by
This was a great assesment of Vitali, really made me rethink his status and ability.
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey

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