What Mayweather vs Mosley Really Exposes
by John Genco on Apr 27, 2010 10:40 AM EDT
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Statement 1.
Floyd Mayweather would not be willing to put 40 million on the line if he didn't know he could handle Shane handily.
Until then, please don't believe what you will hear after the Mayweather vs Mosley fight. Floyd will boast that he made the biggest-fight-ever even bigger by postponing it. He'll tell the world how now, he really wants Pacquiao and it's going to happen! It was all part of his plan the whole time. Even though Floyd can really dance, don't believe that song and dance.
For the M & M match up on May 1st, disregard what the rest of the viewing public, pundits, experts and exaggerators are telling you. Almost all are predicting a close fight that goes to the cards and narrowly to Mayweather. They are convinced that Shane's speed is going to give Floyd fits. The real of it is, this fight won't be close!
Needing help to illustrate this point, if there was only a recent fight to compare this one to. Something with some relevance to Mayweather vs Mosley that is similar to how this fight is going to go down...
Ok,ok, got one. Had to go a long way back, don't know if you remember the Pacquiao vs Clottey fight? Yep, that one. Mayweather vs Mosely won't be 12 to 0, but Shane has about the same chance that Clottey had.
Shane's problem is going to be the same problem Clottey faced against Manny... speed. Foot speed and hand speed. Floyd is going to move and move and move, then set. When Shane catches up, Floyd is going to move again and hit Shane before he resets.
Far too many observers are looking at what Shane did against the sloth-slow, uncasted Margarito and guessing somehow that means Shane will have an answer for Floyd's speed and movement. Margarito was the perfect opponent at the perfect time for Shane. And Shane is now the perfect opponent at the perfect time for Floyd.
This doesn't take away from what Shane did. His speed was too much for Margarito, and his power remains very good. He went off before the Mexicaster could get off. Miguel Cotto was just as effective against Margarito, but doesn't have Shane's power, plus Margarito was somewhat emasculated after the caster disaster.
Mosley vs Cotto is a better measuring stick to Mosley vs Mayweather by yards not inches than Mosley vs Margarito. And Cotto outboxed, outfoxed and beat Shane to the punch. Shane had problems with Miguel getting off first and last and getting out. So, it should go without saying that Floyd is going to be even more effective.
Don't let the, what at the time was a shocking victory against Margarito, erase what you know happened in Shane's previous outing against Ricardo Mayorga. A badly faded Mayorga who was never that great to start, might have been winning the fight until Shane caught him with a big left. If this was the fight immediately preceding the Mayweather fight, how different would the predictions look? Or would the Mayweather fight be happening at all?
So, view Shane against his two most recent fights against fighters closer to Floyd than Margarito was. If Shane wasn't that effective for most of the fight against Mayorga and lost to Cotto, what is he going to be able to get off against a faster fisted, slicker and more fleet-footed Mayweather? If you thought Shane was over-matched in the war of words on Face off with Max Kellerman, it will be nothing compared to how over matched he will be, once fists start flying instead of words.
Floyd will not tire which is what seemed to allow Shane to catch up to the underwhelming Mayorga. Floyd's ever improving jab which now can even be called great, is better than Cotto's, and Miguel's gave Shane fits, which makes this the wrong fit for Shane.
It would be better for Shane's record to move up against a Cintron or an Angulo where his speed would be relevant. Of course it would not be as good for his wallet or the interests of Golden Boy, so by no means is this a bad fight for him to take, just a bad fight to try and win.
Think of Shane's speed like Buzz Aldrin at a party. Being the second man on the moon is going to make him the most interesting man at the party. His stories are going to work the crowd into a frenzy.
Unless Neil Armstrong is also there. Then Aldrin's greatest asset is rendered useless. He better also know some magic tricks if he wants to be relevant. It is the same deal with Shane's speed. He might still be very fast, but that speed is going to be rendered useless because the fastest hands on the planet (arguably) are at the same party.
Also, a Shane win is good for exactly who? Shane? Maybe. Even with a win, he won't get the fight with Manny. There is most likely a rematch clause if Shane did win. And it seems like the Pacquiao camp believes Shane might be too big for Manny anyway.
Even a rematch of Mayweather vs Mosely or if Floyd were to win the rematch the mega fight that was to be Pacquiao vs Mayweather is no longer mega. It becomes just a big, big fight.
A large part of the attraction to a Mayweather fight is to see that smirk and zero wiped off his person. That draw disappears with a loss, along with maybe half of the reported 40 million for the mega fight. But if Floyd wins, and now has Big Name Shane on his resume and the dominance of a great champion fresh in the world's face, that 40 million may be on the low side. How great is that for Golden Boy?
So, a Shane win is not good for his bosses or his company. How would you like to go into work on Monday knowing on Saturday you cost your company the biggest pay day in their history?... just saying.
Of course Mayweather vs Mosely goes all twelve. Of course it is a relatively boring fight, but maybe relatively exciting by Mayweather standards. Shane wins 2 maybe 3 rounds but no more.
Yes, the major consensus is that Floyd wins by decision. In that respect this is nothing new, but this fight is going to be a blowout as sure as Manny vs Clottey was. Both of these fights were and are nothing but glorified tuneups. Each puncher and promoter waiting for the other to blink, rethink or stink to get the upper hand...It seems. But...
Statement number 2!
Unless Floyd is forced to move into his father's basement, unable to pay rent, Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather will not happen. There is only one person who already knows it...Floyd Mayweather. Everyone else is buying into all this glorified posturing.
That is the real reason why Floyd is not just going inactive to wait on Manny. The mega-fight is just not going to happen. Mosley is the 2nd biggest money-fight out there for Floyd. So, he had to take it because he needs the cash. As for Manny, Floyd is willingly and will continue to willingly sacrifice zeros on his paycheck to protect that zero on his record. But after fighting Shane and avoiding Manny, Floyd will not have many statements to make, that the public will be willing to buy.
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good analogy about buzz aldrin.
and mayweather since he beat chico and narrowly got by castillo hasn’t been the risk-taker he once could be argued was.
Gatti. Dekkers. Pele. Aoki. Kang. Vanderlei. Basillio. Harry Greb.
by theworldsoldestsport on Apr 27, 2010 3:21 PM EDT reply actions
agree
I’m not a mayweather guy, but when I argue that he has ducked most legit competition people always bring up Chico. That is a great name to have on a resume and he got it at a legit time. Ballsy win.
Almost all are predicting a close fight that goes to the cards and narrowly to Mayweather. They are convinced that Shane’s speed is going to give Floyd fits.
To be honest, most of these people seem to be predicting a wide UD for Mayweather.
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
I see it going pretty even for the first 2-3 rounds, then Mayweather opening up a 3-4 round lead.
After that, it’s cruise control for the rest of the fight. Bad taste in the mouth due to final few rounds of poor activity by Floyd.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
bad taste!
Yep, for fans sake and why the guys I talk with aren’t Mayweather guys. He never puts the kibosh on anyone when he could really step it up, most of the time he steps it down..
Far too many observers are looking at what Shane did against the sloth-slow, uncasted Margarito and guessing somehow that means Shane will have an answer for Floyd’s speed and movement. Margarito was the perfect opponent at the perfect time for Shane.
That I think is the most desicive factor in this fight. The speed. Mayweather could let off about 10 shots and then tell everyone how he’s the greatest of all time before Margarito throws one
not from what I've read
I’m sure we can go back and forth citing “experts” who back our view,but just to show some of what I’ve read…
Manny-“Mosley has a great chance to win.”
Steve Farhood-“Mayweather’s toughest test.”
Lem Satterfield-“Floyd will eek out a De La Hoya-like decision.”
Nick Charles-“maybe Mayweather’s toughest fight.”
These are all from just one publicatiion
And there are plenty in the media (sports talk radio especially. Of course many don’t really follow the sport) picking Shane to win.
And if this is all you disagree with in this piece, I must be getting better, or you just didn’t feel like typing.
And there are plenty in the media (sports talk radio especially. Of course many don’t really follow the sport) picking Shane to win.
Yeah, I’m not trying to dump on anyone, but they don’t know what they’re talking about, so go ahead and dismiss sports talk radio. About pretty much everything.
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Apr 27, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
no question
except around here they know restaurants to send you to. That is the only credit I’ll give them. Especially when it comes to boxing.
why I can't I write short posts :)
what boxers say
John Genco, I agree that everyone should not put much weight on what other boxers say… these guys try and keep interest in the sport. Listen to them. Half the time when asked they say “I think it’s great for the sport”. That means it will draw the attention of non fight fans, nothing else. The part where they say it will be close is just emphasizing that, to get more interest. Then the average american slob thinks it’s worth the money to buy and they won’t appreciate a tactical fight and get pissed. If they really mean it, it doesn’t mean they’re right. I’ve seen fighters give terrible predictions constantly. Bert Sugar thought Marquez would be a tough challenge for Floyd.
Also, many of these media whores get paid to say things. They are slimy as they come.
radio bimbos
I also agree with SC that sport’s talk radio is a bad gauge if you pay attention to the intellect of the hosts. Either they follow mainstream opinion, or go in direct contrast. Very rarely will you see a new opinion from them that is clever and strategic, and they most all lack the nuts needed to ask any guest a tough question. I like some radio shows where they just let the guest talk for an hour and you end up learning much more about boxing than you do about the fight.
hitting Floyd
One thing I must say is that you can’ t discount Mosley hitting Floyd. Even remotely. Floyd gets hit, just not cleanly all the time because he’s usually moving. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. I’ve seen him get hit cleanly too, even from guys who aren’t really fast. Ricky Hatton was hitting Floyd and he wasn’t smiling after it either. If Hatton was taught that defense is part of boxing you never know how that fight might have turned out.
possibilities
One thing that draws me (and hopefully others) to boxing is the chance for an upset no matter who is fighting. And no one can discount that because it’s happened to some of the biggest names in the biggest fights. Saying that it’s impossible goes against why we love boxing. The whole world thought Sonny Liston would destroy Ali. They also thought George foreman would do the same. Different scenario, with reversed skills I know, but the first 2 that came to mind.
Floyd should be heavily favored and will probably win, but I’m just talking about what is logically possible in a sport of possibilities. Shane proved that by knocking out Mayorga in the 12th round with 1 second left regardless of how he looked the whole fight. Sure he was slower, but an awkward fighter is not easy to time either because they don’t follow the patterns you’re used to looking for. If Shane gets spanked for 11 or 12 rounds and caught a relaxed Floyd with 5 seconds left, the entire world would love Shane. They wouldn’t say he’s any less of a fighter. They might call him lucky, but it’s not luck when you time someone. Lucky punches that get through tend to look awkward.
strategy
I think the only thing that makes sense for Shane to even remotely come close is to try and fight Floyd differently. People assume Mosley will just come forward, but what happens if he flips it and tries to box, or keeps changing strategy. It’s not fair to just say Floyd is the best boxer in the world so you have to come forward. That’s what his own camp says to lull guys into doing it. People seem to think it’s impossible for Shane not to and every match-up Floyd has had in the last few years feeds right into this. Go forward on the elusive counter puncher.
the bionic man
This is straying from the topic a little, but why do people keep talking about Mayweather like he’s not a man? Take another look. He has flesh, bones, blood, and organs. Any man can lose. Any man can make a mistake. I actually have heard people say he has no flaws. What? It’s laughable. Speed isn’t everything, it’s timing. If you time a fast guy you can hit him just the same. I used to hit 70mph baseballs when I was 8 years old because I learned how to time them. My father forced me into the cage shaking, but I quickly learned how to adapt once I got over the fear of it. Shane might just happen to time Floyd right. 38 years old or not, he has the skill to do so. George Foreman might agree.
etc
All that being spewed, I’ll watch the fight regardless of who I think will win. I like to watch fights, even ones people say will suck because sometimes the other guy just wants it more or it’s interesting if the favorite does something spectacular. Who’s to say Floyd won’t catch Mosely with the most perfect punch he’s thrown in his career and knocks out a guy who’s never been knocked out? It’s not only Shane who can create an upset.
Of course I’m hoping that something out of the ordinary happens, I always wish for that. I watch every fight I get a chance to. Sometimes it’s a great fight, sometimes it’s not. Such is life. ;)
A promise is comfort to a fool.
ShadowMask on your...
What boxers say: totally agree. That was my point. Just cause they are saying it, don’t believe it.
Radio Bimbos: right on.
Hitting Floyd: I thought De La Hoya was his most effective when he stopped trying to catch Floyd’s head and threw 3 or 4 hooks right to Floyd’s shoulder all in a row. I think stuff like that is enough to punish floyd and make him uncomfortable and open some stuff up.
Possibilities: your thought on awkward fighters, is one reason (don’t tell anyone, but I picked Hatton) in that fight. And if he would have been allowed some of the tactics he normally used, it would, as you said, had floyd smiling even less. But I don’t see Shane being able to pull it off and ends up just getting peppered.
Strategy: shrewd thought. But is floyd that smart? (using the media to get opponets to fight his fight) I know he would not be the first, and it is not that uncommon,but Floyd seems transparent to me, but it could be.
Bionic man: Steve Austin didn’t duck and dodge the real challenges, for hand picked villians every episode, so no, I don’t look at Floyd that way, just Shane is a good opponent for him, as are most.
Etc: yep, it is one the great things about boxing. The game can end at any moment, no matter how ahead the other team is, unlike the big 3.
some credit
with all my wind I failed to mention I agree with much of what you say. All things being equal Floyd should win, never fight Pacquiao and retire after myabe fighting a few other people he thinks he can beat. But you never know if his ego will get the better of him. Sometimes people start believing the shit they try and sell to the public. If the public, the media, and the fans all turn on Floyd, he might just fight Pacaquiao.
In a world of things almost never being equal when they should, I look forward to everything :)
A promise is comfort to a fool.
thanks
for reading it and your post. Good stuff. There are only a few things I would like more than late saturday night, saying darn, I was wrong again, Mosley surpised us all.
yeah man, that’s what’s great about boxing though. sometimes you get to say that.
I think the mind game works sometimes, especially think this is the case with Hatton. The trainers I think have something to do with it too. It’s not that Floyd is that smart, it’s that the opponents aren’t particularly bright. Hatton never struck me as a brilliant guy.
I agree about De La Hoya. Sometimes I even forget when watching a fight that being punched full force in the gloves, shoulders, arms, or elbows, cannot feel particularly good when dealing with good fighters and could have an effect. I thought Oscar was pretty amazing for his age and had the beast in him that night. Picture how hard shane hits, and doing that into Floyd’s shoulders or his brittle hands. If Floyd really does mainline Xylocaine, he better take a triple dose Saturday.
btw, my comments weren’t just directed at your post. Just general stuff too since it went along with the fight. I wasn’t saying that your points were wrong.
A promise is comfort to a fool.
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