Mayweather v. Pacquiao is not a competitive fight
by FlyByKnight on May 11, 2010 8:53 AM EDT
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(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Front-paged by Scott.
In the past, I have written that I don't see any possible way that Manny Pacquiao can defeated Floyd Mayweather, let alone stay competitive throughout the fight. It's driven most people to call me a Pacquiao hater or Floyd lover or something of the sort. I've been called irrational and just downright stupid at times. However, I'm here to, once and for all, supply the reasons as to why I firmly believe this fight would not be a competitive fight. I'm already preparing myself for the backlash and I'll attempt to reply to any and all posts. So, without further ado, here we go.
Stats from CompuBox.
Reason #1: Manny Pacquiao's ineffective jab
In Manny Pacquiao's six previous fights, he has landed 204-of-1655 jabs. That's 12.3%. Over the course of those same six fights, his opponents have landed 212-of-1064 jabs. That's 19.9%. If you take out the horrific jab that he displayed against the defensive posture of Joshua Clottey, Manny Pacquiao has landed 190-of-1106 (17.2%). Removing Clottey's pitiful jab in that fight, Pacquiao opponents have landed 186-of-902 (20.6%). Either way, Pacquiao has shown that he hasn't been able to land effective jabs as he has risen through the weight classes. At least not at a rate that would hinder what Floyd Mayweather is doing in the ring that night.
Reason #2: Floyd Mayweather's defensive prowess against the jab
Over the course of Mayweather's last six fights, his opponents have thrown 1388 jabs. They've landed just 211. That's a 15.2% connect rate. Mayweather's defensive shell is one that prohibits a fighter from finding the range and space to land an effective jab. Oscar De La Hoya landed 40-of-246 jabs during their fight. As effective as De La Hoya's jab was early in the fight, it went away later in the fight. In the final three rounds of the contest, he ended up landing only 4-of-77 (5.2%). In the previous four rounds, he landed 31-of-124 (25.0%). As average as Pacquiao's jab is, it'll only look worse against Floyd's world-class defense and speed.
Reason #3: Floyd Mayweather's dominance at 147 pounds with the jab
As his career has progressed, Mayweather has looked more and more comfortable at the Welterweight limit. He's grown into his body, added weight well, and looks to have added a pretty good amount of muscle to go with that weight. It's almost as if he's a new man. So, take into account that his last three fights have come at 147 against reliably tough competition in Hatton, Marquez, and Mosley. In those three fights, Mayweather landed 299-of-598 jabs. That's a 50.0% connect rate. That's what you would call an amazing percentage. His opponents have landed just 78-of-634 jabs. A 12.3% connect rate. In the last three fights, Mayweather has a +37.7% connect rate on jabs.
Reason #4: Floyd Mayweather's dominance at 147 pounds with power shots
By comparison, over the course of his last three fights, Mayweather has landed 328-of-701 power punches. A highly productive 46.8% connection rate. His opponents have landed just 146-of-773 power punches. That's a ridiculously low connect rate of 18.9% for his opponents. Mayweather holds a +27.9% connect rate on power shots. As good as Manny Pacquiao has looked at 147 pounds, he's still relied very heavily on his power punches. And rightfully so. After all, he's a good puncher. Average boxer but good puncher. Mayweather's past opponents have found little success with power shots, so why would Manny suddenly find it?
Reason #5: Manny Pacquiao does not look comfortable at 147 pounds
This, ultimately, is one of the main reasons as to why I think the fight will not be competitive at all. In his three fights at 147 pounds, Manny Pacquiao has ran over solid competition but nothing spectacular. And he hasn't looked amazing doing it. I doubt he's truly comfortable at the weight. I think it's actually too much weight for him. Take into account that he's faced slow, plodding, and flat-footed boxers who lack ideal speed, and they've still landed at a reasonable rate against him. Especially with power shots. Over his three fights at 147 pounds, Pacquiao opponents have landed 226-of-701 power punches. That's 32.2%. None of the three landed less than 30% of their power punches. Pacquiao himself landed 703-of-1575. A 44.6% connection rate. He holds a +12.4% advantage there. Pacquiao landed 103-of-1021 jabs in his three fights at 147. A pretty sad 10.1%. The Clottey fight didn't help matters but it is what it is. His three opponents landed 137-of-697. That's a 19.7% connect rate on jabs for his opponents. So, Pacquiao is -9.6% in that department. Not exactly good to be +2.8% in connection rate and think you stand a great chance at beating someone the likes of Mayweather. Not to mention that his power has seemed to not follow himself up to the weight. He beat Cotto and De La Hoya through the sheer volume of punches rather than the actual power. He just wore down their will, which was probably already in the reserve stages entering the fight. It wasn't massive shots but rather a massive amount of shots. The knockdown of Cotto was more a product of Cotto being off-balance, as well. It was a perfect storm, so to speak.
Reason #6: Since coming out of retirement, Floyd is better than ever
In the 24 rounds of boxing since returning from a hiatus, Floyd Mayweather has landed 40% (or better) of his punches in 22 of the 24 rounds. The only two rounds he didn't? Rounds #1 and #7 against Shane Mosley. He landed 30% and 37%, respectively, in those rounds. In those same 24 rounds, his opponents have landed 30% (or better) of their punches in just 2 of the 24 rounds. The two rounds they did it in? Rounds #1 and #2 against Shane Mosley. He landed 32% and 38%, respectively, in those rounds. That means that for 3 of the 24 rounds that Floyd Mayweather has taken the center of the ring since his retirement was declared over, he has fought at a near even rate with his opponents. The only clear round he lost? Round #2 to Shane Mosley. So, for 23 of the 24 rounds, Floyd Mayweather fought his fight and looked great doing it. In those 24 rounds, he has held his opponents to single-digit connects an astounding 21 times. The three times that he didn't, his opponent landed 11, 11, and 18. Joshua Clottey had double-digit connects against Manny Pacquiao seven times, just for reference.
Reason #7: Floyd Mayweather, plain and simple, is better than Manny Pacquiao
It just goes without saying. When I watch the two men box and put them on a split-screen, it's like night and day. You see a pure boxer like Floyd who is a thinking man in the ring, he can rationalize with the best of them, and adjust on the fly. His footwork is great, his defense is legendary, and his efficiency is just impeccable. He has no wasted motion. You then see a great puncher like Manny who can throw punches in bunches but cannot adjust on the fly, cannot think in the ring, and just goes at the same speed all the time. He doesn't have great defense, his footwork is average at best, and he is often out of position at times and very vulnerable to counter shots. When things stop working for Manny, he has a very tough time adjusting and boxing with guys. You saw it against Marquez. When Marquez was able to settle himself down and just start boxing, he was able to dictate everything. And that's the same thing Floyd will do. He'll dictate pace, action, and, ultimately, how the fight will play out.
Conclusion: Floyd Mayweather versus Manny Pacquiao is not a competitive fight
With everything laid out, I can already picture how the fight would play itself out. You'd have Manny Pacquiao taking the center of the ring for the first few rounds, attempting to establish tempo and get Floyd to fight his fight. Floyd will still be relaxed, calm, and thinking clearly. He'll end up frustrating Manny with his defense thus causing Pacquiao to start to fluster. Manny won't be able to adjust to the pace of the fight which result in him being beaten to the punch every time. Freddie Roach will be in the corner pleading with Manny to get back to what was working earlier, which was to throw punches in bunches and make Floyd shell up. However, this time, it just won't work. Manny will start swinging for the fences, forgetting to think as well as react to anything else, thus making it easier for Floyd to do whatever he wants. By the ninth round, the fight will already be in hand and Mayweather will be toying with Pacquiao. Floyd's handspeed, which will be underestimated going into the fight, will start to rear its head. By the eleventh and twelfth, Roach will consider stopping the fight but thinks Pacquiao has enough of a chance left to knock Floyd out. At the end of the fight, all that will be left is Floyd having his hand raised after thoroughly defeating Pacquiao and establishing himself as the greatest boxer of his generation. As much as people want to believe otherwise, that's how it would happen. Manny lacks a sufficient enough jab to fluster Floyd's defense and lacks the proper footwork to keep Floyd off-balance. Pacquiao's speed will be good to start but will fade as the fight goes on and he starts having to pay for his technical mistakes. Mayweather has shown the ability to adjust as the fight goes on whereas Pacquiao has not. And that's the difference. Mayweather can think under high stress situations. We've yet to see Manny do so. Floyd Mayweather by wide UD.
I'm sure most will disagree. Either way, it's open for debate. I just don't see what Manny has that can threaten Floyd. Maybe someone can open my eyes and show me something that I may have missed when going over everything. I actually hope that's the case because I want to see a competitive fight when, and if, they meet. I don't want to see the one-sided beating that will most surely happen. Anyways, if you've read all of this, thank you. And, even if you disagree, thanks for your time.
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I disagree in that it will be competitive, Manny will certainly have his moments, like Shane did in the 2nd round. But the class of Floyd will prevail in the end for me. Manny will walk on to a flush shots with regularity as the fight goes on and Manny will not be able to find Floyd. Manny’s only shot will be to take Floyd out early like Shane almost managed.
Reason #6: Since coming out of retirement, Floyd is better than ever
This is massively debatable. He fought a guy that shouldn’t have been in there and had the worst round of his career against Mosley. This is like people saying Hopkins was better than ever at 43 because he trounced Pavlik. As good as he was, he was not better than ever. Floyd is not better than ever, IMO.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
oh, and
Good stuff. I like reasoned arguments for things, even if they are “controversial” or I disagree.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on May 11, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Great post and analysis
From an academic standpoint, statistics can only be used to analyze a pool of numbers, not predict events. Having said that, I couldn’t make a better case for a wide Floyd UD.
Well, everyone is entitled to their opinion.
But I am curious: Reading through these bullet points, were any of you reminded of Duran-Leonard I?
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
Absolutely. the pure boxer against the most dynamic complete fighter.
Once inside the squared circle, all bets are off. Two men of this caliber on a given night, neither of whom have ever faced the likes of each other. I have this dead even.
Manny will be the smaller man getting bigger. Floyd the full and true welter. But floyd can be hit and he can be hurt…and no one in the business at this time does that better than Manny.
Could Manny walk into murderous counters and get hurt or worse. You bet. Can he hit and hurt Floyd. Absolutely.
Maybe I missed it, but
have you taken into account the strange angles and rhythms of Pac’s punches? The reason I bring it up is because, Floyd’s defense, while remarkable, has never had to defend against someone that….odd. Floyd is incredibly smart in the ring, but I am curious about his defense against Pac. For me, that’s the fight in a nutshell. Floyd has every advantage except Pac’s oddities in footwork, angle punching and rhythm.
A Pete Rose by any other name would still smell of cheap hookers and pinetar.
Oh, and
I do not think Pac is the same fighter that fought Marquez. I think his improvement is obvious.
A Pete Rose by any other name would still smell of cheap hookers and pinetar.
by Pops Daniels on May 11, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
His improvements is obvious cuz his opponents technical skills have dropped in the process.
I too see this as a one-sided fight for Mayweather. But instead of going 12 I see Mayweather stopping him mid-fight. Like in the 6th round or so. Marquez is an outstanding fighter. Who I feel holds 2 victories over Pacquiao. Everything Marquez does Mayweather does better. People like to point out that Pacquiao has improved. He has a little. But not to a point where he can deal with Marquez without problems. Much less Mayweather.
If a man ain't found something worth dying for. He ain't fit to live.
by Violent Demise on May 11, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
why keep bringing up Marquez?
this applies to Floyd also… let’s use Marquez for now… how about if I say, Floyd beat Marquez easily because Manny already wore down Marquez and made it easy for Floyd?
then again, when Manny basically stopped Oscar on the 9th round and knocking out Hatton on the 1st and putting him to sleep on the 2nd, Floyd nuthuggers keep saying both fighters are worn down by Floyd? It took Floyd up to 10th round to get Hatton knocked out.
Not a very fair comparisson.
"There is no nobility to be superior to anybody else;
The only true nobility is to be superior to the person you were yesterday."
by Whitney Young
one other thing...
I am sure that if Manny ask Marquez to fight at welterweight… Manny will do more damage to Marquez than Floyd to Marquez. I can understand that Manny’s fight with Marquez (on both figths) can be debatable but then again, Manny has improved a lot more since then.
"There is no nobility to be superior to anybody else;
The only true nobility is to be superior to the person you were yesterday."
by Whitney Young
Manny-Marquez at 147 would be over within five rounds. Marquez is tough, but nothing close to a welterweight.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on May 11, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you there, why bring up Marquez because Manny is definitely a different fighter BUT I will say this . . .
When you compare the performances of Mayweather and Pacquiao against the same opponents YOU WILL ALWAYS get a different result because they’re simply different fighters. Mayweather Jr. is a defense-first fighter that believes in the I hit you and make you miss philosophy. Pacquiao doesn’t mind exchanging punches at all.
And that’s why Mayweather Jr. has always understood that fans will never really love him for his style in the ring because they don’t produce devastating KO victories.
"There's nothing cool about taking punishment" - Floyd Mayweather Jr.
by VeeisAnimated on May 11, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
agree
completely
"There is no nobility to be superior to anybody else;
The only true nobility is to be superior to the person you were yesterday."
by Whitney Young
High volume of punches, Very low and effective connection percentage.
If you always thought what you thought, then you wouldn't think what you knew.
by Haans Bishop on May 11, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Great points but I still think it will be an entertaining fight and a competitive one
Even if Manny can not land shots he will not stand there flinching like Mosley.
"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."
- fundamentallysound
I mostly agree with the argument
and I do think Mayweather would beat Pacquiao rather easily, but I also disagree with this point:
In his three fights at 147 pounds, Manny Pacquiao has ran over solid competition but nothing spectacular.
I mean, he beat a legit top 3 WW and a legit top 5 WW, and he beat both of them much more convincingly than anyone had before him.
Also, I’ll just point out that I may just habitually underrate Pacquiao. I thought he’d lose to Hoya. I thought Hatton and Cotto would be competitive fights.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Manny has intangibles that are difficult to measure
And he is on a historic roll.
Floyd may prove to be the end of the line against Manny but Floyd is hardly untouchable. Oscar and Hatton had him out of his comfort zone for long stretches and Manny is a better fighter now that those two were when they faced Mayweather.
Also, punch stats and connects vs Clottey have to be discounted because all Manny did all night was hit whatever he could. When he hit arms, elbows, shoulders held so close as to make Clottey more secure than an armored personnel carrier, and connects every time, me thinks those are connects. Not the misses that make his Compu-box numbers look so poor.
Is Areglado around? I think a front-page point-counterpoint would be fascinating, if he has time and the mods agree.
Hey, thanks for the vote of confidence Taco Pal. And ordinarily, I’d love to do something like that, but you know, I’m just sooo tired of the whole Pacquiao-Mayweather thing. Just done. Suffice it to say that it isn’t too hard to see through the 7 “reasons” the author offers up. As one other poster asserted, these points are nothing but convenient for the author’s conclusion. “Floyd Mayweather, plain and simple, is better than Manny Pacquiao,”(???) Gimme a break.
I’m just sooo tired of the whole Pacquiao-Mayweather thing
I know exactly how you feel!
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on May 12, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
1+1+1+1+1+1+1=0
Some good points that just don’t add up to your conclusion, in my opinion. All put together, Manny’s last three at 147 add up nicely in comparison to Floyd’s, especially since 2 out of 3 solidly belonged at the weight.
Manny’s jab has always been a range-finder. The bigger question is, why should Manny finally be the southpaw who doesn’t frustrate the hell out of Floyd? Can’t shoulder-roll away from that left.
But at this point, is there anyone else at 147 who would make a more competitive fight?
My main disagreement with you comes down to Manny’s combination of speed and power. While Floyd did beat Mosley pretty dominantly, Floyd also got hurt by Mosley, who has nowhere near the speed that Manny has.
I think Mosley speed is the same as Pacquiao’s
If a man ain't found something worth dying for. He ain't fit to live.
by Violent Demise on May 11, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I absolutely do not. Mosley’s speed has been really overrated for a few years now, I believe. He looked fast against Margarito and Mayorga, but seemed about equal with Cotto and Mayweather made him look much slower than the hype.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on May 11, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Nah. Mosley had serious problems pulling the trigger against Floyd, and was utterly unable to get off any combinations. Manny can throw combinations much more rapidly than the 38-year old Shane and his straight left is sneaky quick. Even against Margarito, Shane’s combos were heavy rather than quick. No question that Manny has quicker hands in my opinion.
by SilverLaker on May 11, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe... Timothy Bradley
If you always thought what you thought, then you wouldn't think what you knew.
by Haans Bishop on May 11, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Paul Williams versus Pacquiao or Mayweather Jr.
- Yeah Mosley, a fighter Roach went on record to say he didn’t want Pacquiao to fight, hurt Mayweather Jr.
- A fighter that had great, thrilling crowd pleasing performances against De La Hoya, Cotto and Margarito hurt Mayweather Jr in the 2nd round then he was taken completely out of his game for the next 10 straight rounds.
"There's nothing cool about taking punishment" - Floyd Mayweather Jr.
by VeeisAnimated on May 11, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
If Manny is going to make the fight competitive, it will have to be with a volume punching attack consisting of lots of power punches. If Manny is out there trying to outjab and outbox Floyd Mayweather then he will get beaten to a pulp. I can’t imagine Freddie Roach is dumb enough to try to employ that kind of strategy. The only way this fight is competitive is if Manny applies enormous pressure and gets Floyd out of his comfort zone— not real likely, of course, but that’s the blueprint. All the jab statistics are kind of meaningless, in my opinion. Of course he’s not going to be able to hit Floyd regularly with the jab.
by SilverLaker on May 11, 2010 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
mosley landed 2 good shots on mayweather, in the second round, when mosley fought cotto he never hurt em, pacquiao knocked down cotto twice in there fight, something mosley couldn’t do, once manny tags mayweather with a solid shot, then well see how he reacts.
Psalm 14:1
by THERE is No CoMPETiTioN on May 11, 2010 11:37 AM EDT reply actions
You can’t compare Mosley-Cotto to Pacquaio-Cotto, I don’t believe. Pacquaio fought him after the Margarito fight, and after he’d just taken some abuse in the Clottey fight; Cotto was a changed fighter after the Margarito beating. Moreover, the Manny knockdowns were based around Miguel being off balance, and Pacquaio catching him flush. Mosley never really landed the same sort of punches in the fight.
"The terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides, turning a disaster into an epic"
by Oli Goldstein on May 11, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Manny has little to no chance to win. The slim chance is based on his determination and courage, which might be enough to pull it out. However, I was at the Pac-Clottey fight, and I can tell you that every punch that Clottey hit Pac with shook Manny to the core. And he only got hit maybe 10 times the entire fight. At 135 or so, I’d give Manny a shot, but not at 147.
I’ll still pay for or attend this match, though. Are you kidding? Who’s going to miss it?
oh please...
You ask us to take into account that Mayweather last 3 fights have come agsinst ‘reliably tough opposition’ and you include a blown up Hatton and a grossly blown up JMM in that. But in contrast Pac has faced ‘slow plodding flat footed’ boxers in Clottey and Cotto. This just isn’t a balanced way of looking at both their recent opposition.
You distort your jab and power shot stats by basing them solely on those three fights. The JMM ‘fight’, such as it was, plays a large part in that.
You assess Pacquiao partly on the JMM fights, when he’s a very different and improved boxer now. When you say he doesn’t look as comfortable at 147, do you compare stats with his record at lower weights? No. Where’s the basis for the assertion that Cotto’s will was in the reserve stages prior to the fight? He always kept trying, and never came in like Clottey just to survive. (not getting into DLH ;)
Yes, I and most would agree that Mayweather is a better pure boxer than Pacquiao. But ‘not a competitive fight’ is a leap too far, and takes fanboy-ism beyond even Option27 levels into delusion.
But it was well written, even though I disagree strongly with the tone
I hated every minute of training, but I said, ‘’Don’t quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.'’ (Bernard Hopkins)
by BrianBrock on May 11, 2010 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 12 recs
^ this
plus all the punch stats are absurd in coming up with a conclusion on the fight. styles make fights. always have and always will.
"Newspapermen ask dumb questions. They look up at the sun and ask if it is shining."
-Sonny Liston
.
by sonofapsycho on May 11, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
rec'd
Boxing writer: "Iran, what are you going to do when you retire?"
Iran Barkley: "Rob your house"
Agreed. I can’t see this being a one-sided fight. Pac may have trouble finding Floyd’s range, but Pac isn’t the sort of person to stop throwing like Shane did, and I can’t see May hurting Pac significantly. I see this fight quite a bit differently. I see Pac winning the first few rounds through volume, Mayweather adjusting, and then the fight proceeding from there.
Good to see you back, Mr Brock.
I read this post on my phone last night, but although I can read BLH on there, I can’t comment. This (what you’ve written) is a great summing up of the points I was dying to make reading the OP.
Great stuff. And I’m not sure, but I think that 11 recs might be the second highest I’ve seen (behind SC’s post which effectively stuck a fork in SupremeCourt…. I think that was the one that prompted Matt Miller to bring the word anaphora to my attention, and got roughly 3,272,962 recs……)
Now, Tweek, boxing is a Man sport. There is nothing in the world more Man than boxing. It is Man at his most Man. So when you spar with Ned here, just dig deep into that most Man part of you. (Uncle Jimbo, South Park: Tweek vs Craig)
Wow. Was I ever wrong.... either that or people un-recced it later on....
http://www.badlefthook.com/2010/1/2/1230230/bad-left-hook-boxing-awards-2009
Still a great post though…. :)
Now, Tweek, boxing is a Man sport. There is nothing in the world more Man than boxing. It is Man at his most Man. So when you spar with Ned here, just dig deep into that most Man part of you. (Uncle Jimbo, South Park: Tweek vs Craig)
So, what is the highest total recs for any single post? Anyone remember higher than 11?
Now, Tweek, boxing is a Man sport. There is nothing in the world more Man than boxing. It is Man at his most Man. So when you spar with Ned here, just dig deep into that most Man part of you. (Uncle Jimbo, South Park: Tweek vs Craig)
no clue
No way to track it.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on May 13, 2010 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions
everyone keeps bringing up the whole pacman-marquez and how mayweather took em to school, why didnt mayweather fight jmm at 130 then we would’ve seen how nice he really is, fmj fought hatton at 147 hatton had 2 go up in weight manny gave it 2 hatton wit no vaseline in two rounds at his undefeated weight, people talk about the clottley fight, who looks good boxing clottley? anyone that thinks manny is going to fight fmj like his other opponents should smack themselves, roach does have a gameplan and we will see what happens.im not sayin manny is going to win, to me it seems that fmj and pacman are both afraid of each other, they both aint putting enough energy into making the fight happen.
Psalm 14:1, Matthew 3:2
by THERE is No CoMPETiTioN on May 11, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
Pretty Good post
I think some people are concerned that Mayweather doesn’t have the legs that he use to anymore. He might not be able to escape Pacquiao as easily. I think Mayweather wins but I think it’ll be pretty close.
by GoldenSt8OfMind on May 11, 2010 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
That’s Freddie Roach saying that. On the basis of the Mosley fight, I think it’s pretty hard to see where on earth he got that point from.
"The terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides, turning a disaster into an epic"
by Oli Goldstein on May 11, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
A Excellent and TRUE Comparison
This is why I “F***” with this site. Even though you guys post different articles about different fighters and at times, side ways comments. You guys will at least “CRUNCH” the numbers at some point and see what really “Is” in suppose to what should be. Numbers don’t lie and performances speak for themselves. This is like a TOP TEN article on this site in my book. It is what it is!
If you always thought what you thought, then you wouldn't think what you knew.
Well there's a ringing endorsement...
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on May 11, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Ouch...
This will not help the credibility of the poster.
In Bayless I trust.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><>
Nope. If ever there was a case of damning with faint praise.....
Now, Tweek, boxing is a Man sport. There is nothing in the world more Man than boxing. It is Man at his most Man. So when you spar with Ned here, just dig deep into that most Man part of you. (Uncle Jimbo, South Park: Tweek vs Craig)
My biggest issue with the whole argument is stuff like this:
Mayweather’s past opponents have found little success with power shots, so why would Manny suddenly find it?
You come in with a predisposed notion that Pacquiao is not a great fighter, and that Mayweather is awesome, and then you tailor your arguments to try and fit into your conclusion. Manny’s big advantage would come with power shots…shots he connects very well with. And you throw it out because, well, since Floyd has stopped power punches of other fighters before, well, he’d obviously stop Manny too. Why? Manny is a much, much, MUCH better fighter than Floyd has ever faced. And a southpaw. Who’s to say he can’t land his power punches, using his speed and odd angles?
It’s a solid rundown, and crunching the numbers do show that Pacquiao won’t be able to walk all over Floyd (I doubt anyone thought he could). But to just dismiss the things Pacquiao does well because you’re alreayd conviced Floyd is the better fighter, well, that’ sjust irresponsible.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 11, 2010 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I hope Mayweather reads this..
…agrees with you and then thinks `I can whoop Pacquiao..` then drops his stupid blood testing demands and they get it on!
haha
that would be gr8, can’t w8 til the fight does eventually get made
by Sweet science on May 11, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Great article
To me the fight is still a toss-up but I have always leaned toward Floyd. I agree, the D’ is just too good on Floyd’s part and with Manny lunging in (like he always has and does) Floyd will be able to pepper his face all day with counter shots. BTW, it is not like PacMan has the greatest chin either. I agree that those counter shots will eventially take effect and ware him down.
http://www.examiner.com/x-33584-Cleveland-Boxing-Examiner
by Cleveland Boxing Examiner on May 11, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions
I disagree about his chin
He took some big shots against cotto and clottey and just shook them off, not to mention some of the punches he took in the marquez fights
SOrry
Sorry for the delay in response. I dont think he has a bad chin at all. Just not a great one. I have seen Pac rocked by many shots. Usually a guy isn’t good enough to keep it up though against Pacquiao. Also, I was very unclear in my last message. I wasn’t really knocking Manny’s chin. All I meant was that Floyd could put a real hurting on him, because it isn’t like Pacquiao has the best chin. Not that it’s bad. I just think Floyd could get to him. That is how I should have phrased it.
http://www.examiner.com/x-33584-Cleveland-Boxing-Examiner
by Cleveland Boxing Examiner on May 12, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Pacquiao has a great chin
He took one or two monster shots from Cotto with ease. Also, many of Marquez’s counters would have felled most other fighters in both their fights.
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on May 11, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Pac has an awesome chin from what we've seen.
How could he fight so recklessly earlier in his career and not suffer defeats if he didn’t have an amazing chin.
However, I worry about his long term health because of his willingness to eat huge punches and just keep going.
In Bayless I trust.
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it WONT be a competition
Money Mayweather will out box him and OWN his ass..I luv my man pac man but Floyd is just to much for anyone.end of story
by LJchamp on May 11, 2010 4:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It will be competative
Mainly because of pacquiao’s work rate, i think pacquiao has a good shot of getting a close decision by outworking mayweather and stealing alot of rounds, thats the best shot he has.
It basically comes down to this.
Pac-man is the one of the most exciting fighters of all time P4P
Floyd is one of the most boring fighters of all time P4P
our hearts want Pac-man to win, our minds know the reality that floyd poses, i too think floyd would win a easy decision or knock pac-man out.
I am not afraid of Pac-man losing or getting hurt, i am more afraid to pay 60 dollars for something that sucks to watch
.
by teabaggingexper on May 11, 2010 7:19 PM EDT reply actions
Some of you guys are confused. Marquez wasn’t brought up to compare Mayweather and Pacquiao victories against him to each other. It’s useless to compare them. Marquez was brought up to back up the point that Mayweather would beat Pacquiao pretty easily..
You can’t compare the victories. But you can compare the styles. And bottom line is Pacquiao has problems with cerebral fighters. Fighters who think and pick there moments to counter and attack are a nightmare for him. Marquez doesn’t have the power or the speed to match Pacquiao. It’s not even close. But his boxing IQ is 10 times that of Pacquiao. He’s a genius in the ring. It’s that boxing brain of his along with his refuse to lose heart that enabled him to twice beat Pacquiao. Mayweather is just as smart as Marquez. He doesn’t have Marquez’s heart but makes up for it with a refused to lose arrogance. That alone balances out Pacquiao’s advantages. But it doesn’t end there. Mayweather posses an outstanding set of skills. Match by very little in the history of Boxing. Everything Marquez did against Pacquiao, Mayweather can do better.
People for some reason have convinced themselves that Pacquiao has greatly improved. That he’s some how a complete fighter. How? When? I see no evidence of that. He’s not just a left handed fighter any more. But other than that I see no other improvement. He’s looked outstanding in his previous fights. But look at his opponents. None were thinking man fighters. Just fighters. Fighters who possess nothing of what gives Pacquiao problems. But had a lot of what can make Pac look good. Everything Pac has problems with Mayweather has in his weapon arsenal. Boxing will be in shock in the ease of this fight
If a man ain't found something worth dying for. He ain't fit to live.
stats stats stats
This is a well written piece.
But I’m sorry I beg to disagree on your pro-statistic approach on this.
As the boxing cliche says “styles make fights”. That is why the Shane Mosley who beat Oscar DLH twice was beaten by Vernon Forrest twice who was also creamed by Mayorga twice.
Statistics are sometimes misleading.
You’re right, PBF v. Pacman won’t be competitive. Pacman will KO him in 2
Texans 19-0 in 2010-2011 season PERIOD
by battle axe of doom on May 12, 2010 1:28 AM EDT reply actions
You must be new to the sport. How you like it so far?
If a man ain't found something worth dying for. He ain't fit to live.
by Violent Demise on May 12, 2010 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions
At least he doesn't appear to be high on coke.
In Bayless I trust.
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by staylost on May 12, 2010 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I fail to see the problem
If a man ain't found something worth dying for. He ain't fit to live.
by Violent Demise on May 12, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
if mosley can buckle him twice in the 2nd round, then pacquiao sure as hell can. also pacquiao won’t screw the pooch on the finish either.
Texans 19-0 in 2010-2011 season PERIOD
by battle axe of doom on May 12, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I like the thoughtfulness of the article.
I disagree (like many readers, obviously), and I see people talking about the Pacquiao Punch Angles issue, but nobody is really quantifying it very well. Let me attempt to do so, in a flavor many of you might not be too familiar with…
Keith Jardine vs. Chuck Liddell was fought at UFC 76 at the Honda Center in California. It was supposed to be a tune-up fight for Chuck, who had recently lost his long-held LHW title in a fight with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Jardine was/is a tough guy who does two things as well as anybody in the business, and that’s about it: 1. leg kicks, and 2. delivers his strikes from funky angles. If you watch the fight, you’ll see both of these attributes on display in volume.
Chuck Liddell earned a (well-deserved) reputation as a fierce counter-striker who would put people to sleep as soon as they went for a takedown. His odd defensive style included keeping his hands low to defend the shot, while seemingly leaving his head open for attack. This style, combined with a rock-solid wrestling background which he uses to prevent takedowns, and also to escape unfavorable positions to return to the feet, is all he’s ever featured. It was come to be known as “Sprawl and Brawl,” and to date it is the most effective type of strategy to employ. It’s just ridiculously difficult to master because of all the skills and abilities to require.
As the fight progresses, you see Chuck with his right hand cocked for his patented overhand tranquilizer. Usually Chuck would wait for a bit, time his opponents first, then deliver death in a single, savage exchange that nearly always resulted in him ‘firing up the chainsaw’ during his victory tour of the octagon. In this fight, at least at first, it appeared that Chuck was simply waiting to establish Jardine’s timing and execute his patented counter-attack. The minutes passed by, and while Chuck did manage to catch him once, Jardine was able to recover and win the fight on points.
The moral of the story is, even a modestly talented fighter like Jardine can neutralize the best fighter in the history of his sport with a well planned and executed attack which relies on strange angles, attacks where you don’t expect them, and a high work rate. It wasn’t the most clear-cut decision in the world, but the message stands regardless of the W/L results of the fight: Jardine, who possesses only a fraction of the ability of Liddell, was able to completely shut him down and make a competitive fight out of it.
Pacquiao has far more talent, relative to Mayweather than Jardine has relative to Liddell. I expect the fight to be quite competitive, simply because Manny might never allow Floyd to find his timing. It’s entirely possible that Floyd puts him down like a rabid dog in the first couple of rounds, using his patented counter-attacking style and Manny’s aggressiveness against himself. But it will be a thoroughly entertaining, and competitive fight in this blogger’s opinion.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on May 12, 2010 1:33 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Took me about an hour to read this post on my phone. Worth it though.
I like what you’ve done here. Good parallels drawn. I don;t think the argument is wholly convincing in and of itself, but it definitely has merits.
Now, Tweek, boxing is a Man sport. There is nothing in the world more Man than boxing. It is Man at his most Man. So when you spar with Ned here, just dig deep into that most Man part of you. (Uncle Jimbo, South Park: Tweek vs Craig)
Sorry about the length.
I tend to get verbose on my internets ;)
And like I said below, I’m not declaring that this means Manny wins (I do think he wins, however), but rather I was aiming to negate the ‘greater skills equal pwnage’ theme of the article. And following pdl below, BJ Penn lost to Frankie Edgar recently in the UFC. Penn is leaps and bounds more talented than Edgar, and while there are assorted reasons why Penn likely lost (poor conditioning habits resurfacing, an increasingly one-dimensional approach to boxing/takedown defense, etc..) the point remains that a less talented fighter can defeat a significantly more talented one by implementing a frustrating and somewhat confusing gameplan.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
Eh... sketchy comparison.
The reason Chuck was so successful was the UFC LHW division was nothing but grapplers who had nothing to offer if they couldn’t get the takedown. Rewatch his fights with Rampage I and II, Overeem (before he gassed), Shogun, and even Rashad Evans. The only strikers Chuck beat in his career are Wanderlei and Vitor, neither of whom he could finish. His talent lay sprawl and scrambles, not elite striking.
The better MMA comparison is the recent Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn fight. Penn has arguably the best boxing in the sport, deceptively good head movement, and quick hands. Edgar managed to win over the judges with faster footwork, volume punching, and changing his rhythm even though he was getting caught with counters all night.
Pacquiao could do something very similar to Mayweather en route to a decision. My head is still picking Floyd though.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Edgar-Penn I was a bit dicey for me,
because I figured another MMA fan would swoop in and cry foul on that decision, but you’re absolutely right. Edgar did overwhelm Penn with speed, footwork and (to a lesser, yet present degree) odd angles.
Chuck’s legacy was built on smashing one-dimensional wrestlers, yes. But mixed in there is a counter-punching style that is fairly unique in modern MMA.
I’ll agree it’s not the 100% best comparison, but my point wasn’t to make a perfect comp. It was more aimed at chopping the feet off of this particular point, declaring that Manny’s supposed inferior skills would get swallowed by Floyd’s and result in a non-competitive fight. There are plenty of reasons to expect a really exciting, competitive war between two of the greatest of all time.
The best always look unbeatable until it happens. And right now, but Manny and Floyd look unbeatable. It would be an amazing fight, regardless of how it goes down.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
The way I see it, this fight will be reminiscent of a historical fight in Heavyweight.
I don’t know about you people but this fight has the makings of an Ali-Frazier.
This will be competitive, count on it.
Count on Manny to make this competitive.
If I wake up tomorrow and see that the world has ended, then that means God has finally granted my prayers.
GO Armageddon!!!
I wouldn’t mind seeing these guys fight 2 to 3 times. Imagine what that would do for the popularity of boxing.
Oh my!
it would be a beautiful thing!
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on May 12, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me continue to stick with my bad-
Floyd attitude and say that a win for him shouldn’t be a legacy one.
While a win for Manny should.
I've long thought that a loss for Manny
doesn’t mean anything. He’s a tiny little guy who has bashed his way through however many weight classes, and to do what he’s done is unexpected.
Floyd wins because of his natural abilities, and superior skills. We expect Floyd to win whenever he wins, and we expect it to be a landslide.
It’s just not the same with Pacquiao.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
Manny wins and here's why...
Before I craft out the fight plan to beat Floyd and point out why Pacman has the style to beat Floyd, did anyone sense the 2nd round of the mosley-mayweather a slight odd? I mean here’s a guy who clearly hurt Mayweather and believe me Money was ready to go in that round. His legs turned to rubber, it needed a few more punches from Mosley to land, and under the circumstances it wouldn’t have been difficult to land on Floyd and you’ve got a sensational 2nd round knockout. However, bizarrely Mosley runs out of gas and it’s only the second round!! YES, think….only round 2 and he’s tired. Strange…Strange….Strange.
Mosley failed to land another telling punch in the 2nd round after he wobbled Floyd. In fact Mayweather landed more punches in the 2nd round after he was wobbled (pretty badly too). For the whole fight I couldn’t get my head around why Shane backed off after hurting Floyd and it was only the second round!!! Ive justified it in my head, by Shane landing the big punch, was this going against the pre-arranged fight plan?? I’ll let you all think about that! I’m not saying there is a conspiracy here…well actually I am.
Okay, swiftly moving on, the key to beating Floyd is actually more straightforward than one thinks. It’s not about power punches as some of you have written on this thread. You beat him by beating him to the punch and not even necessarily landing. Floyd is a counter puncher, he DOESN’T JAB. He’s just quick at throwing his pop shots and he pretty much is all he does in a fight. However he only throws the pop shots if the other fighter isn’t throwing any punches, these are easy openings for Floyd and hence when he lands it looks more amazing than it actually is. This happens in most Floyd fights, his opponents have a poor punch output throughout. Watch the Mosley fight, you’ll note that Shane punch output was in the 30%. You have to be busy against Floyd.
The other way to take away floyds weapon (pop shots) is constant movement from side to side of the head and lateral body movement. Again if you stand straight infront of him without throwing punches or moving your head, these are easy targets for Floyd.
I’ve watched both fighters in great detail, Manny is a busy fighter, hence his constant hand movement will reduce the amount of straight rights Floyd will land on him. Another tool Manny has is his movement, he moves well and very difficult for Floyd to land those straight rights and finally Manny moves his head a lot too. Watch his fights you’ll see I’m correct.
Jab Judah punch output against Floyd in the first fight was higher and he almost won if he didn’t lose his head.
Shane rocked Floyd and I’ve now changed my view that Floyd has a solid chin, on that note when the best left hook in the world lands on Floyd I think he’ll get hurt.
Nevertheless, it’s an interesting fight, I’m confident Manny will win and can’t wait.
Mosley failed to land another telling punch in the 2nd round after he wobbled Floyd.
Not true. Mosley hurt him with a right hand and Floyd grabbed onto Shane’s arm and slowed it down. Later in the round Mosley buckled Floyd’s knees with another right, and again Floyd didn’t allow Mosley to capitalize.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on May 16, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m referring to the 2nd punch landed by Shane, this punch hurt Floyd the most to the extent his legs were gone, roll back the tape and watch. At round 2 shane SHOULD have had the energy to shrug off Floyds holding. Also, Floyd only held on for a few seconds, he out punched Shane in that round!!!
Something doesn’t add up.
by clickonme321 on May 16, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re assuming two good right hands weren’t the best Mosley could do. I’m assuming that’s exactly the case. At no point in the rest of the fight was Mosley the equal of Mayweather. He got two good right hands in.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on May 17, 2010 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Tend to agree...but
I tend to agree with you that Floyd will win convincingly over Manny; but there’s a big x-factor here, one you’re largely ignoring: Pacquiao is a lefty. Personally I think Floyd has lots of trouble early against Manny, but will figure him out by Round 5 and then dominate from Round 6 thru 12.
Dan Adams
Yes I forget to mention Manny is a lefty, and Floyd struggles with Southpaws.
by clickonme321 on May 16, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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