Bad Left Hook Fight Preview: Jean Pascal v. Chad Dawson

This Saturday night on HBO World Championship Boxing, Jean Pascal and Chad Dawson meet to determine the new Ring Magazine light heavyweight world champion. They are near-universally ranked as the top two light heavyweights in the sport today.

Light Heavyweights - 12 Rounds
Jean Pascal v. Chad Dawson

Though these two are in fact regarded as the top two at 175, Dawson (29-0, 17 KO) is the heavy favorite. Both have been out of the ring for a while, but for different reasons. The 28-year-old Dawson hasn't fought since last November, when he routed Glen Johnson in a performance so dull and safety-first that it got him booed in his home state of Connecticut by the end of the fight.

Pascal (25-1, 16 KO) last fought in December, beating Adrian Diaconu for a second time in 2009, and aggravating an old shoulder injury to the point that he required surgery. Dawson and Pascal were talking about a June fight, but Pascal's team decided to postpone it until August, so that he could be 100%, or as close to it as possible.

Pascal was already giving up a bit against Dawson. To break it down as simply as possible, Pascal is going to have to win this fight on grit and a bit of luck. Dawson is taller, has a big reach advantage, and knows how to use it. I don't think there is anyone who would consider Pascal a better pure boxer than Dawson, either. "Bad" Chad uses his natural skills as well as anyone in the sport this side of They Who Shall Not Be Named Right Now Because Enough Already. He's also been into the fire and tested in his first fight with Glen Johnson, and whether you think he deserved the W that night or not (I scored it a draw myself), he learned from that fight. He's also been rocked and floored by Tomasz Adamek, and survived that with a dominant win -- the last time anyone beat Adamek, now a top five heavyweight.

The Haitian-born Pascal has been in dogfights. In his last fight at 168, he battled tooth-and-nail with Carl Froch, losing a tight decision. Since then, he's gone 4-0 overall, and 3-0 at light heavyweight, with two wins over Diaconu in good fights and a win over Silvio Branco between.

But he has never faced someone with the pure skill and ability of Chad Dawson. Dawson, on the other hand, has been in with good pressure fighters, though neither Johnson nor Adamek have the athletic ability that Pascal possesses.

Dawson is promising a more action-friendly approach than he had last time out, but Rocky Juarez promises every time that he's going to start fighting before the final two rounds, too. In other words, I'll believe it when I see it. Dawson had such an easy night last time with the very safe approach that it's hard to imagine him trying to brawl with Pascal, who's probably better in that realm than Dawson. Chances are, Dawson uses his jab, uses his length, uses his feet, and stays out of the fire against Pascal. Pascal, if he's as physically fit as he needs to be, absolutely has to get Dawson to fight his fight. He cannot outbox Chad Dawson. He can't even keep up with him if he can't catch him. If Dawson has his way, this fight, as good and significant as it is on paper, won't be close. And I expect Dawson to have his way, but I'll admit I'm hoping for Pascal to make things exciting. Dawson UD-12