Pacquiao-Margarito: Ted the Bull's Breakdown and Prediction

Your prediction looks about right to me and i agree that Marg will likely be tougher to break down than Cotto and will put up more of a fight than Clottey did(how could he not? :).
I was hoping he would get booed heavily for this fight but with all the Mexican’s there he might get quite a good reception,ridiculously.Then again,maybe not.
And i agree that Tony will not take a dive,although he’s not exactly “Mr Trustworthy”.
He’s unpopular enough,he doesn’t need people taking to the streets with pitchforks,hungry for his blood.

I’ve always felt exactly the same re busting Marg right before the fight re its destabilizing effect on him. That’s why I didn’t think Mosley would beat May—SSM’s last few had only had that one good win, and I didn’t think it was that good with those circs.

about Margarito’s uppercut being a factor here. Or rather, Pac’s susceptibility to them.

Ted, I hope you dont mind if I ask a question to all responders here for an impromptu survey.

No doubt this fight will be a big PPV boxing match. Price hovering around $50-$70 range.

After you respond to Ted’s great size up article- if all responders would please let me (others) know if you would be purchasing this fight. Dont have to elaborate here-just let us know if this fight is worth your PPV dollars . Thanks

Ted, you brought out all the variables that this fight includes in your fine piece.
I think that Antonio’s reach is a big factor in this one, and though it will not keep Manny from scoring inside, it will score points for him while jabbing away.
I think the two fighters are out to prove something and its toe to toe till the final KO.
No way I see it going the distance, or even to the later rounds. Home field crowd is advantage here too. Before I go with Margarito here, I have to see if the two fighters here are training in earnest. I think Manny and Roach will be all guns, but Antonio might be just looking for a final payday and take it easy. If Antonio is sitting on his ass in training camp,then Pac-man in 7.
I too am drawn to this one-probably will buy.

Trouble is though.. I can’t bear the wait!!

I am not buying the PPV, i will be at Ringside with my Father and Brother. Margarito is a Fighting at a good Weight, ang their is No Excuses for Him. It Will be a Explosive Fight and Margarito will have to be very Aggessive to Win.

I will be at the event live, for sure. If anyone comes down to Dallas, let me know. Margo will have way more fan support here than Manny, but, as someone once said, unless they (they fans) can get in the ring, it won’t matter much to the fighters.

unless they (they fans) can get in the ring,

Will be a War

Can’t believe ppl are talking about this, but it seems like floyd has left manny off the hook big time.

Not sure I understand. I compartmentalize and seperate the person from the fight. If I’m the only “writer” who writes about this, that’s fine with me. As for Floyd. huh?

As for Arum, now is hardly the time to take him to task.

Give fighter of the decade to Cotto imho atleast he’s earnt it.

I think Margo will use his height and reach to try and keep a distance from Pacquaio. I know a lot of people think its going to be two guys in the center of the ring wailing away, but I just dont see that. We’ve seen what happens when you try and trade punches with Pacquaio,(Cotto 4th round). But Cotto didn’t have the physical gifts that Margo has, height and reach. Believe me, this will not be a compubox record for punches thrown or landed. I think Margo will try and use the same strategy that Lennox Lewis used against Mike Tyson. Lennox didn’t press Tyson for 1 second of that fight, but he still got the KO. He used his height and reach and kept Tyson at a distance that he could not be effective. I think this will be Margo’s strategy. Pacquaio is the smaller, aggressor of the two, so I think Margo will make him work to get in by using a long jab and when Pacquiao does get close and because of Pacquaio’s height, Margo will use his uppercut. And then clinch whether it lands or not. I just dont see Margo walking down Pacquaio, thats the fight that Pacquaio wants.

My theory is, in “Big Fights” always expect the unexpected.
It could be guys that have 60 fights under their belt and then they get that big legacy fight and they come out totally different. You would’nt even recognize their style. Just think about it, how many times have we seen guys do a complete 180 in style contrast when in one of those make or break your legacy fights? Numerous times. Thats why I think instead of a “war” “brawl” it will go like the Tyson Lewis fight. But I dont think Pacquaio is going to gas like Tyson did that night.

Like Mayweather Says. If it Makes Sense Money Wise and this fight weather we like it or Not it does.

At most, if my resolve crumbles, I’ll see it for $15.00 in W. Spfld. but I’m sure enough that I’ll see it free that I’m hoping not to pay a dime.

I agree that it’s horseshit, but I would be lying if I said the thought didn’t enter my mind before. I don’t really read any other forums (there’s a good reason for that), but here’s where my thought process was when I mapped it out in my head for mapping out’s sake.

1. It’s big money for Arum and the fighters.
2. Margarito, it can be argued, owes his continuing career to Bob Arum.
3. Margarito takes the dive, gets his money. Manny gets his money and the big W. Arum gets his money. Margarito continues on, no shame in losing to Pacquiao. More money is made.

From a conspiracy theorist standpoint, I suppose it makes sense — at least as much as conspiracy theories can. But no, I don’t subscribe to the thought either. Margarito is a lot of things, but he’s got an ego, which isn’t always a bad thing.

I Don’t think Margarito would EVER take Dive. But Y Would Jerry Jones Give Clottey money? if that is True

filth in my life on a boxing site. Talk about showing disrespect to a man who just lost his son. I was flabbergasted by the hate and venom. The site ended up taking ALL the comments down. Unbelievable.

But as has been said above, Margo has had trouble making the weight, and will be better suited at 151. Also will Manny be suited to the weight. I think Roach and Ariza will get him right, but Manny can’t keep stepping up can he.

Again, the uppercut for Margo will do the damage if he can land it. Manny’s defence is not great, maybe if he jumps in Margo will hit the big time, and if he does how will Manny’s chin stand up to it at 151.

Who will be the aggressor, Margo to stalk, or manny to stay on him and try and bust him up wit his rapid hands.

For me Margo has to use the jab while coming forward, and if Manny jumps in thud the uppercut in and use his reach advantage. Margo will be able to hurt him if he can catch him.

The safe option is for Manny to win by late stoppage. Something tells me (somewhere at the back of my mind) there will be one hell of a suprsie in store though.

I’d go early and meet friends in Las Vegas and then fly to Dallas, have a steak or five at Ruth Criss’s, visit the sights, catch the pre-fight atmosphere, talk a lot of Spanish to get a feel for the betting, place a large bet on Pac, stay in a luxury hotel, play some cards, take a limo to the fight, and enjoy myself. That’s what I’m think at this point OR I just might stay here in the mountains and watch the fight on PPV.

I still have trouble with the hand-wrapping thing from Tony’s past. There is no way that he didnt know what what there. A fighter is very keen on whats going on with his hands at all times. The only reason why he would let that happen-is that he felt he needed an advantage. Dont down play it- it was huge for him. I think he knows he’s at the end of a long tiring Hall of Fame career and this fight is a big buckaroo pay day. His training camp is key here to observe. I dont think his mindset is to look past this fight- just hold his own with whatever effort he gives.
Manny has alot to offer pass this fight. This fight is meaning more to him.
Tony can beat him if he fights in earnest. No dive here. His reach is key here if he wants to use it. He can take Mannys punches. But Tony has to want it-thats the question.
Think Money,Money Money and quit.

This fight is interesting to see Manny’s demeanor after the congressional appointment. Does he come out strong and focused or does it seem that he has lost some of that spark?

Even if Pacman is all kinds of distracted, I don’t think Margo stands a chance in hell in this fight. No way can he deal with Manny’s combos at top-level conditioning, much less after the year he has gone through. Margo is really slow and doesn’t have a semblance of defense (unless having a good chin and letting the other guy hit you counts a.k.a. Andrade style). Cotto is/was way faster than Margo and Cotto still got tagged all day by Pacquiao. I’m not sure if Pacman has the power to KO Margo at whatever the catchweight is for this fight; Pac will just be giving up too much weight.

UD-12 Pacquiao with a slight chance of a late retirement by Margo

up?

I’m sure, but they’d be smart to price this low. More buys will = as much money and some good will.

I suspect the thinking is that the demand will be such that the high prices are viable. Many of the Mexcian Americans who will be attending the fight could use a break obn the prices, however. If that is what you are getting at. But as for good will, hmmm. Not sure it has a place in the sleazy world of boxing.

It seems like hes saying that hes willing to die in the ring before quitting against Pacquaio.

"Mayorga-Vargas" was like Camacho-Duran for God’s sakes. "Margarito-Cotto" was a diamond cutter for sure.

I see a violent fight. I’ll be surprised if it goes more than three or four rounds with Margo walking onto Manny’s bombs from the first bell. I see Pac stepping to his right and cracking Antonio open with fast hooks and uppercuts. I’m hoping the planets are aligned for another Hagler-Hearns or Zale-Graziano. Pacman TKO4.

Hamsho mugged him pretty badly in that one.

I trust some of you have seen Margarito’s comeback fight vs Garcia. Really, I think it’s hard to tell what state the man is in just judging by that fight. Garcia is basically a journeyman who’s got a bit of hardman in him, so I’m not all that surprised that Tony didn’t get the KO. What did surprise me is how often Antonio was backing up in that fight. It could be that Garcia is his equal when it comes to physical strength (they’re about the same size), and Margarito, surprisingly, didn’t do too badly off the backfoot. Still, there was something not quite right about seeing Tony backed up like that. I guess what I’m saying is that Antonio looked, well, ordinary. There was nothing in that performance that hearkened back to the plod-forward, eat all incoming fire and smile, p4p menace that was the Tijuana Tornado circa 2008. I’m not saying he IS ordinary, but that he looks it.

The one obvious advantage Margarito has over Pacman is sheer size. The disparity here is just enormous. Antonio can use this one of two ways. He smothers and bears down on Pacman with his huge dimensions, weight, and pressure, or, he uses length to keep the little dynamo at bay.

If Margarito employs the first tactic he risks getting tattooed on the way in by blistering combinations to the body and head. His biggest weapon in this scenario, as has been covered, is his uppercut. It’s not a bad uppercut really—not particularly fast, and not even that powerful, but very solid, jolting, and incessant; Tony throws this shot a lot. Is Pacquiao a sucker for this punch? Some argue yes. Marquez landed it almost at will, Cotto landed it, Clottey landed it. Marquez probably has the best “uppercut-based” combinations in the sport, so no surprise there. In the case of Cotto and Clottey, Pacman got tagged pretty much every time he tried to coax them into a firefight. It would happen every time Pacquiao went flat-footed, stood right in front of them and took a high guard.

If Margarito chooses to surprise us all and uses his height and length, his best shots will be a sharp jab and a long right cross. Both these punches are mediocre at best coming from Antonio. He’s too damn slow to be useful at that range, always has been. Pacquiao will slip to the side, pivot around, fire, again and again. Margarito can’t win from range due to Pacquio’s quicksilver foot speed, and machine gun punching.

The second tactic might mean Margarito survives the fight somehow by backing up, but he gives Manny an easy UD. The first tactic is Margarito’s best bet to win the fight but also puts him in greatest danger. He’ll eat obscene amounts of leather just to get those uppercuts and hooks in. So the question is, can his chin hold up?

I’ve long believed that when your typical boxing “hardman” is broken, more often than not, they’re broken for good. If you built your career on absorbing more punishment than your opponent can dish out, what happens when that armor finally cracks? I don’t think there’s any repairing it, really. Against Mosley, it wasn’t just “accumulation” that caused the stoppage. He wasn’t standing around protesting, fighting the call after they stopped it. Nope, the man was hurt and hurt bad. That changes a fighter of this type.

If we assume that his chin is what it was, and Antonio comes forward and manages to smother Pacman, then we’ll witness a contest that is brutal on both men. If It’s not what it was and he comes forward, we’ll all be watching the KO replay about 15 minutes in. If Margarito fears that his chin isn’t the same and backs up like he did in the Garcia fight, then we all lose (except Arum). Antonio loses cred, Pacquiao doesn’t “make the people happy,” and we’ll feel cheated.

I reserve the right to change my prediction until after I’ve heard the buzz from both fight camps. As of now, I’m going to go with Pacquiao by referee stoppage in the 10th.

Duran was an old man , was 5 ft 7 and had a 67 inch reach and he beat Barkley who was 6 ft 1 and had a 74 inch reach . Barkley is a bigger guy than Margarito and Duran was similar in height and reach to Manny . It’s not like its unprecedented . Chris Byrd beat Vitali K who was over 30 pounds heavier than him , RJJ beat Ruiz . Haye beat Valuev who was nearly a full foot taller and 99 pounds heavier . Manny should win this one easily . Cheers Blokes , thanks for the read Ted .

Now if Saul ALvarez was on the show, I would be down there for sure.

Margarito Needs to Fight Pacman like when he fought Cotto, Coming Foward and Backing the Pacman Back. He took Clottey,Cotto,Cintron and Mosley’s Punches Not to mention 100 Punches Per Round By Paul Williams, I"m Sure he can Take Pacman’s..

I thought Nevada Didn’t License Margarito because he had to go to California First?

Then Kaboom!