Even though Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez have 24 rounds of evidence suggesting they're as evenly-matched as fighters can get, oddsmakers are expecting that the first two fights from 2004 and 2008 won't have much to do with what happens in 2011, when Pacquiao and Marquez square off tonight at the MGM Grand, live on HBO pay-per-view.

For comparison's sake, the odds for Mayweather vs Ortiz had Floyd at an average of around -650 or so, and Pacquiao vs Mosley had lines for Manny at about -900, generally.

It's certainly no surprise that Pacquiao is this big of a favorite, and I wouldn't have even been shocked if they'd been a couple hundred wider for Manny. He's the favorite for a reason: He's been decimating his opposition ever since that fight with Marquez in 2008. David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey, Antonio Margarito and Shane Mosley have been destroyed by Pacquiao in the time since he and Marquez last met. Can JMM buck the trend? Odds are he can't.