In the ongoing Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Manny Pacquiao saga, you can only be sure of one thing: Nothing is for sure until we see the fighters together.
But right now, the talks appear to be legitimate, and appear to be heating up. And Golden Boy Promotions may be left out in the cold for boxing's biggest fight, if it happens.
The latest development is that Bob Arum is negotiating with investment groups to help stage the incredibly expensive (and rich) mega-fight. Michael Koncz has met with Mayweather at his gym in Las Vegas. And Arum says Mayweather is "going solo" to negotiate this fight, meaning with no involvement from Golden Boy Promotions.
It would be Mayweather's first fight since 2007 that didn't involve Golden Boy in any way. His fights with Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Juan Manuel Marquez, Shane Mosley and Victor Ortiz were all promoted by Golden Boy. And if the fight does happen at all, it would be Floyd's first time working with Top Rank since he bought himself out of his contract with Bob Arum in 2006, a few weeks after he fought Zab Judah, and a few months before fighting Carlos Baldomir.
While much of the blame has been directed at Bob Arum and Top Rank for not making the fight, this could be quite the smooth move from Arum, if he's convinced everyone that making the fight is easier if they go through him without Golden Boy involved. Arum's no dummy: If Manny Pacquiao really, really wants this fight, and will only accept this fight, he has to get the fight for Manny.
So how does he do that? Bury the hatchet with Mayweather. Work with Mayweather. And eliminate the other money-grabber, which is Golden Boy, because they have neither fighter under contract. Their relationship with Mayweather has been that of a promoter, but he has no deal with them and no obligation to involve them in this fight.
It was always assumed that getting the fight done would mean Arum and the Richard Schaefer/Oscar De La Hoya team would have to work together. Maybe not. Arum doesn't have to squash all of his grudges to this. Just the beef with Mayweather.
If he can round up the money, and he can make certain guarantees with the help of investors, he can make this fight. And it would be really something to see how Golden Boy, who have been digging at Arum for weeks now, would handle the news that he got the fight done without them.
Wait and see.