Well, this is definitely a notable wrinkle in these negotiations. The Philippine Star reports that the revised contract for Juan Manuel Marquez to face Manny Pacquiao on November 12 includes a rematch clause.
And if Marquez were to beat Pacquiao, Top Rank is guaranteeing him $10 million for a fourth fight between the two. Bob Arum also says that Golden Boy has until May 16 to match the offer or back out of negotiations.
Deadline or no, the $10 million rematch clause is basically impossible to top. Golden Boy first matched the offer with Saul Alvarez at 147 pounds. So Top Rank made a 144-pound catchweight, which Alvarez cannot reach, for Pacquiao vs Marquez. Golden Boy countered with Victor Ortiz, who can make 144 pounds.
But this $10 million clause -- look, Golden Boy is really stretching for $5 million in one fight against either Alvarez or Ortiz. It doesn't make any business sense to do that. With the PPV revenue that will come in, and the big gate revenues, Top Rank has the $5 million to spare on this fight for Marquez. Neither Marquez-Alvaerz nor Marquez-Ortiz has that sort of PPV and gate potential. They're simply not the same level of event without Pacquiao involved. And $10 million would be crazy for Golden Boy to match for, what, a Marquez vs Victor Ortiz rematch?
If this is the way it has played out, this has to be the final nail in the coffin. We'll hear more about this, I'm sure, including denials and accusations and moaning from both sides, but Top Rank is willing to call Golden Boy's bluff by going all-in here. There's really nothing Golden Boy stands to gain by trying to keep up with this, and they'd be better served (as we discussed in another recent comments thread just today) by focusing more on the likes of Alvarez, Ortiz and Amir Khan, and stop worrying so much about the soon-to-be 38-year-old Marquez. Marquez is getting the fight he's begged for for the last three years, and Top Rank is apparently willing to go through hell and high water to make it happen.