Robert Stieglitz vs Mikkel Kessler Negotiations to Begin Tuesday

by Scott Christ on Jun 13, 2011 6:03 PM EDT in Boxing News Analysis

Mikkel Kessler will look to pick up a belt from Robert Stieglitz next. (Photo by John Gichigi/Getty Images)

Mikkel Kessler returned to the ring after a year-plus layoff to dominate Mehdi Bouadla on June 4, and now will begin negotiations for a fight with WBO super middleweight titlist Robert Stieglitz on Tuesday, confirming that he'll instead chase the "easiest" belt to gain in the division, rather than targeting IBF titleholder Lucian Bute.

I said before and do firmly believe that you can't really blame Kessler (44-2, 33 KO) or his promoters at Sauerland Event for this. If he were to beat Stieglitz for the WBO belt, he could go into negotiations with Bute later this year with more leverage, and the word from Sauerland was that they didn't feel the offer to fight Bute in Montreal was good enough for someone of Kessler's stature.

So while it's a bit of a shame that we won't get Bute vs Kessler next, the good news is that doesn't mean it's being ruled out, just that we won't get that fight immediately. And Stieglitz vs Kessler isn't a bad fight, either. Stieglitz (40-2, 23 KO) has gone on a nice run since losing to Librado Andrade in 2008, and I'd argue it's better he fights a legit contender like Kessler than continuing to simply hang on to a belt against guys who aren't in that league.

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Comments

this is a legit fight

i thought kessler coming straight back to fight bute after one tune-up was a bit too much, and this will be a much better measure of where kessler “is” at this point

i expect him to ko steiglitz, but the stieglitz i know is the person librado andrade bombed out and i’m under the impression steiglitz has improved since then

by nickfoxx on Jun 13, 2011 6:13 PM EDT reply actions

I honestly didn’t think Stieglitz did that badly against Andrade. I had it close, but I was in the minority.

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by Scott Christ on Jun 13, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

“If he were to beat Stieglitz for the WBO belt, he could go into negotiations with Bute later this year with more leverage”

I have my doubts.

This claim – that the alphabet belts boost a fighter’s stock and lead to bigger paydays – has been made time and time again amongst boxing’s more “enlightened” class, and yet not once have I seen it substantiated. I’m not trying to attack you, Scott; you’re far from the only one who’s insinuated this connection between the paper titles and added income, and I know you qualified your statement, but it’s something I’d at least like to see backed up, instead of just being thrown out there as if it’s received wisdom.

The gap between the hardcore fan who tunes in religiously to every HBO show and the casual fan who gets together with his buddies to watch Pacquiao twice a year is vast. I find it difficult to believe that bridging that gap and selling a casual fan on tuning into a B.A.D card is as simple as a WBA or WBC belt.

Andre Berto had the benefit of an HBO-subsidized ascent and a gift-wrapped WBC title, and yet he couldn’t even crack the 1,000 fans for a charity show. What is the argument? That had he not been WBC champ he would have drawn 600 instead of the 800 he actually managed to pull in?

I saw this non-effect in person with Steve Molitor, who was built up as a solid brand in Souther Ontario after capturing the IBF title before failing miserably in a unification bid, losing his belt in the process. Funny thing is, next fight out, Casino Rama was sold out, just as it always had been – and this for a non-title fight. Even in a fickle, non-traditional boxing market like Toronto, the belt seemed to carry no relevance in the minds of ticket buyers.

I think the keys to moving tickets in boxing remain the same:

International recognition (rare)
Ethnic allegiance.
Geographic allegiance (difficult in all but a few North American locales)
Style/excitement.
Opponent

The first two being the most important.

I don’t see the alphabet straps playing much of any part.

Maybe I’m wrong. If you have figures that prove me otherwise, I’d love to see them, and would gladly admit my error. Otherwise, I’d hate to see people defending these paper titles without justification.

by JasonTO on Jun 13, 2011 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

Not about tickets

It’s about the split of the gate/tv revenue. If Kessler comes in as a “fellow champ”, he can command a better split than if he was “Kessler, dangerous opponent with no following.”

by Verklemptomaniac on Jun 13, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

But that’s exactly my point: the belts have no relevance to the question of following and profile. Kessler the IBF champion and Kessler the contender are indistinguishable when viewed in the context of revenue. It was reported here that Kessler’s last fight – a non-title bout against a journeyman opponent – pulled in some ridiculous market share in Denmark, and not to mention sold out the venue.

Bute’s situation is similar. Lucian was a star in Montreal long before he earned the IBF strap he currently boasts. His status in the city is not at all based on the belt around his waist, but rather his humble persona, impressive skill set, the perception amongst the natives that he’s an outsider who has made a concerted effort to assimilate (a not insignificant fact in Quebec) and the province’s historical passion for the sport.

Both fighters bring a set-in-stone following to the table, both at the box-office and over the airwaves. The presence of belts or lack-thereof has no effect. Denmark will tune in no matter what – we know this. Montreal packs the Bell Centre to watch Bute spar B-opponents – we know this. As a sophisticated boxing town, Montrealers will acknowledge Kessler’s calibre, and sell out the Bell Centre in due fashion.

by JasonTO on Jun 13, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that belts may have a marginal effect on attendance and that these are all pretty much paper titles anyway, but I don’t think the leverage Kessler would have in a post-Stieglitz negotiation with Bute necessarily stems from the idea that he’d suddenly become a better draw with the WBO belt.

Rather, consider the different dynamics a negotiation between two “champions” may have from one between a champion and a challenger. In the former case, the two are bargaining from a roughly equal position of legitimacy, and it makes it more difficult for one to demand a bigger cut of the purse simply on the basis of being a champion (as might happen when a challenger is chasing a beltholder). Kessler with a belt would actually be putting something on the line against Bute besides his name; the risks each fighter faces would be more equally distributed in this case.

Consider also the fact that both guys want to get first crack at the Ward-Froch winner. Since Bute is currently the only one of the two that holds hardware, he might be content to simply wait for the tournament to end and naturally get the first shot (or at the very least he might be happy to not make the most attractive offer in the world to Kessler). If however Kessler also has a belt, then it’s by no means clear which of the two makes for the better opponent. Froch has already expressed an interest in a Kessler rematch, and if he has his own belt that can be put on the line, then that probably makes him an even more appealing first opponent. This can in turn induce Bute and Interbox to make a more lucrative offer to Kessler next time around, as the alternative of assuming that Froch or Ward must face him becomes riskier if his nearest rival to land that fight also has a belt.

by bachwards on Jun 13, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Response

This claim – that the alphabet belts boost a fighter’s stock and lead to bigger paydays – has been made time and time again amongst boxing’s more "enlightened" class, and yet not once have I seen it substantiated. I’m not trying to attack you, Scott; you’re far from the only one who’s insinuated this connection between the paper titles and added income, and I know you qualified your statement, but it’s something I’d at least like to see backed up, instead of just being thrown out there as if it’s received wisdom.

When someone doesn’t have a paper title and is working up towards mandatory status, they don’t have particularly great leverage. All of the ABCs have mandatory purse splits for fights that go to purse bid. The IBF’s is actually the worst, with 75% of the purse going to the champ and only 25% going to the challenger. Thus, if someone is getting a fight who would otherwise be rising through the mandatory ranks, they’re likely to be offered something in the 20% (if they’re jumping the line) – 30% (if they’re signing early but are basically the mandatory, in order to cut costs) range of the total purse, no matter their drawing power, unless it’s clearly the fight that would bring in the most revenue.

So no, it doesn’t have much of an affect on attendance (except in places where boxing isn’t a big sport, where saying you have some title makes people go who might otherwise not – e.g., Selcuk Aydin, who can draw 10,000 in Turkey now that he has an interim paper trinket), but it has a large effect on determining the purse split.

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by Brickhaus on Jun 14, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

When things slow down at work a bit

I’ll probably write a full post on this. I’ve been meaning to do it for a while.

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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 14, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

And in this particular instance

Bute’s team can well make a lowball offer. He has a fixed Showtime contract, and he’s able to sell out the Bell Centre whether he fights Mikkel Kessler or Brian Magee. Maybe they can charge a bit more for tickets, and maybe Showtime kicks in a bit extra for a Kessler fight, but the revenue pot probably doesn’t change that much. IBut even as such, Bute has other solid options who will be available soon, and his management team can play a race to the bottom and just accept whomever out of Ward, Froch, Kessler or even Dirrell will take the lowest purse percentage. The purse split rules don’t apply to a unification (since there’s no such thing as a purse bid for a unification fight), so then if Kessler has a title, the offer probably has to be closer to 50%.

All that said, I doubt the fight gets made almost no matter what. Both guys have huge local fanbases, but not massive fanbases outside where they live. He’s a lot more likely to be able to make a fight with any of the other three, simply because Bute would be the biggest money fight available to them as long as his team offers close to an even split.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 14, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

But the purse bids only apply to mandatories, so whether Kessler holds a belt or not, the split is is still more likely to come down to drawing power, rather than the influence of any looming IBF bidding process.

Put it this way: Kessler, cognizant of his own stock, is not likely to risk his own standing in the sport by fighting Bute unless the financial figures make sense. Say he’s without a belt, meaning he can be ranked by the IBF (since the alphabets refuse to rank other body’s champions) and thus be in line for a mandatory shot against Bute. Kessler knows he can make more money elsewhere if the fight goes to a purse bid, so he’s under no pressure to accept a mandatory shot; he can opt out. More important – Bute knows this, too. Hence, any idea Bute’s team may have towards using the purse split to force Kessler’s hand is negated. Both sides know the value the other brings to the table; both know that value is out of sink with a potential IBF purse split; hence, both know the challenger will walk if the split isn’t reasonable – belt or no belt.

You hit on it yourself. Bute’s Showtime contract is likely to play a much larger role than any alphabet strap will. It’s the same dynamic we see with the Bradley-Khan negotiations, except in that case both fighters actually are champions. And yet the result is exactly the same: talks break down, fighters go their separate ways.

by JasonTO on Jun 14, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand your argument, though I’m still not convinced. I think there are too many assumptions being made, primarily surrounding the value placed on these belts within the industry. It’s difficult to accept this notion when everything we know about the business of boxing tells us that beyond dollars and cents, little else matters.

At the end of the day, the only question worth being asked from the perspective of the promoter is this: what kind of revenue does this opponent bring to the table?

As for the element of risk – why should the spectre of a loss, something that carries an undue amount of negative baggage in modern boxing, require any added consequences? For a fighter of Kessler’s profile, the loss of face that would come with another defeat means more than the loss of a belt. When fights like these take place, involving two high-profile names, the headlines the next day inevitably highlight the fact that Fighter B lost, not that Fighter B lost their belt – the latter being almost an afterthought.

Re: Ward-Froch. I think Bute’s current standing as the perceived challenger-in-waiting to the eventual Super 6 winner is based more on his Pound-for-Pound standing and his undefeated record that it is his IBF belt. Froch alluded to this in the post-fight press conference when he attacked Bute for being ranked at the top of the division without running a gauntlet sufficient for claiming such a position. Froch obviously saw Bute as the division’s undefeated golden boy, and his motivation is knocking him off his perch, not taking his title.

by JasonTO on Jun 13, 2011 7:49 PM EDT reply actions