Lamont Peterson, who is familiar with both Floyd Mayweather Jr and Victor Ortiz, told BoxingScene.com's Rick Reeno that Ortiz can beat Mayweather, but he's not picking that to happen:
"With Victor, anyone that hits with hands that are that heavy, they can hurt you. It would have to be Victor catching him early and really hurting him to put him on the defensive. ... [T]o beat Mayweather, who counter-punches so much...you have to have a really good jab. And the fact that Victor don't jab, I think he loses."
Peterson fought Ortiz to a spirited draw in December 2010 in Ortiz's final fight at 140 pounds, but Victor looked like the fighter we'd heard he was for years when he beat Andre Berto to pick up a welterweight belt in April. Peterson has also been in the ring with Mayweather, as the two engaged in highly-publicized and much-debated sparring sessions back in 2009, before Mayweather routed Juan Manuel Marquez.
I think he's got the beat on this one, really. I believe Ortiz has a legitimate shot at winning this fight, but it's mostly a puncher's chance. Mayweather is so good that from where I sit, he needs to have declined pretty notably to lose to someone like Ortiz, or Ortiz has to get him out fast. The longer the fight goes, the more Floyd should be able to break him down.
Back in 2007, when Oscar de la Hoya faced Mayweather at 154 pounds, Oscar had great success in the first half of the fight thanks to a consistent, strong jab. After that, Mayweather did adjust, and by that point Oscar didn't have the overall drive, I think, to dig down and pull that fight out. He got fairly close on pure talent, and the fact that he was a hell of a good fighter himself, but by then he was a part-time fighter and sort of checked out on his active career. In Ortiz's case, I think he'll have the drive going in that Oscar lacked, but does he have the skills? Is the trade-off good enough?