Larry Merchant: Mayweather Would Be the Favorite Against Pacquiao
by Scott Christ on Sep 20, 2011 4:57 PM EDT
in Boxing News Analysis
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I swear to God, Larry Merchant is more famous than ever right now. Isn't that weird? Anyway, Merchant, who duked it out verbally and almost physically on Saturday night after Floyd's knockout of Victor Ortiz, says that "Money" would be the favorite if he were to fight Manny Pacquiao in three months' time:
"I think Mayweather would be the favorite because he’s a wizard of defense and a defensive wizard is hard to beat because he’s taking fewer risks and leaves fewer openings for opponents to fill. But there’s an old saying in baseball that good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa, so if anyone has the vice versa in them, it’s Pacquiao."
I think Merchant is right in his assessment here. I've been saying "Larry Merchant is right" a lot lately, which is starting to weird me out. But Mayweather (42-0, 26 KO) would probably open as the favorite on the sportsbooks, though I suspect the odds would be damn close to even. Pacquiao (53-3-2, 38 KO) has never, ever faced a defensive genius like Mayweather. You might argue that Mayweather has quieted offensive storms like Manny brings in the past, but I do think it's a fight where both would be facing the best fighters they'd ever faced.
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Up until Saturday i thought it would be a really close fight and even slightly favoured Pacquiao at one stage. But after seeing how Pac has seemingly started to slow against Mosley (imo) and how good FM looked for those 4 rds, i would be picking Floyd if they ever do fight.
Manny makes mistakes. Floyd doesn’t.
I still think Floyd is just waiting for Manny to slow more as he gets older, what with speed being Manny’s greatest asset.
Floyd sees it as being smart, i see it as cheery picking and avoiding the biggest challenges.
But that’s who he is and that’s what we get. he likely will stay undefeated if for no other reason than he always knows not only who to fight but when to fight them, imo.
Merchant is certainly garnering more attention now than ever, because of staking a personal position, rather than his commentary.
I think that you are also right in specifying that in betting odds, Mayweather would be the favorite. But if good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa, then this really isn’t saying anything other than the one who wins, wins.
I think that they would both face someone like they’d never seen before, but I think that Pacquiao would be far too much to Mayweather.
I've always felt that way.
I would favor him to win by decision, because he’s that great defensively. He frustrates the shit out of opponents until they make mistakes. I would give Pac the only chance to beat him because of his oddly brilliant angles and punching style. But, I only give him a slim chance. And this is coming from someone who loathes Little Floyd.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
When the fight looked like it was on a couple years ago, I thought I remember Floyd opening up at -150 or something close to that.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
Considering that Merchant last prediction was that “50 years ago” he would have kicked Floyd’s ass, his predictive powers are maybe a little suspect.
Bad Left Hook
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
by jrok on Sep 20, 2011 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pacquiao faced a defensive genius in Joshua Clottey, lads.
by Shitali Klitschko on Sep 20, 2011 5:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Apples and oranges.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Sep 20, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Calling Josh a defensive genius is like calling a “brick wall” a defensive genius. There’s a big difference between hiding behind your gloves and making guys miss (and making them PAY for making them miss).
Bad Left Hook
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
by jrok on Sep 20, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
2 theories
I think Floyd is very very very petty. He hates Bob Arum and in this mega fight Arum would make tons and tons of money… And I think FMJ just doesn’t want to give Arum the satisfaction, plus the whole testing issues.
Even in a win against Margarito, Pacquiao was still getting tagged and frankly his offense is his defense. As Floyd still holds the compu-box record against PAC-man’s rival (Marquez), frankly I don’t see Pacquiao fairing too well against the elusive and quick handed Mayweather.
Hey, he keeps saying Manny Pacquiao needs to get his affairs in order, and criticizing his contract with Arum. You might be right here — if Pacquiao went off on his own, as Floyd has done, maybe the fight’s easier to make.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Sep 20, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
When was the last time Floyd fought a Top Ranked opponent?
he doesn’t want to make Bob that money
by Mohammedini Hussein on Sep 20, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right that Pacquiao get hit with almost alarming frequency, and I think too much. And you’re also right that his defense is mostly his offense.
But I think he’s a much more powerful and energetic left-hander than Mayweather has ever faced, and his right leading his left is vastly better than anyone else’s. Ortiz is nowhere near a valid comparison. Pacquiao is much, much faster and stronger than Ortiz.
After watching the fight Saturday, I still pick Pacquiao.
Pac's definitely better than Judah and Ortiz
Bad Left Hook
"My God, kids today think that the laces are for tying up the gloves."
-- Fritzie Zivic
Percentage wise Pacquiao does not get hit that much (24% over his last 10 or 11 fights), which is better than most top fighters (better than W Klitschko, Hopkins, Martinez, and Marquez among others). However some of the shots that due land are pretty hard, especially compared to Floyd who not only gets hit very little, but also rarely gets hit solidly.
Great points...
that’s why the fight needs to happen. And I hate to admit it, but Merchant maybe right about the control freak stuff, if there is some truth to the FMJ vs Arum theory.
Shane hit him plenty solid
So did Ortiz
I think mNny gives him he’ll. He hits harder than any welterweight. Those past few years and he never stops coming. Floyd is not heavy handed. He will have Manny in his grill all night long. He will take plenty of incoming to give back his own…but his is dynamite in the fists….and Floyds is not.
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
Only Shane really hurt him though
And Shane is a powerful guy. If Shane can’t put him down, I’m not sure that Manny can. Floyd has a pretty damn good chin.
Pacquio hits harder than the 38 year old version of Mosley
The difference is the punched in bunches. I honestly believe is Pacquiao has Floyd hurt the way Shane did that he would have followed it up with a knockdown.
Pacquiao does get hit loads but he is willing to take those to land his own, i would be interested to see how many punched floyd lands, i have a feeling he can hit manny at will but would be reluctant to throw too much cos of oncomming traffic.
38 yr old Shane KO'd Margarito
Which is something Pac couldn’t do…so yeah I think even old ass Shane Mosley can hit just as hard or harder then Manny.
"Boxing is like dealing with a ho"
-Bernard Hopkins
That was a 35 year old Mosley
1 – Mosley was 35 against Margarito
2 – Margarito was is NO WAY mentaly there in that fight, he had just been busted, him mind was all over the place.
3 – The weight of Margarito in those two fights is a completely different, Margarito struggled to make weight against Mosley.
Shane hit and hurt Floyd and then quit
Ortiz hit and hurt Floyd to the body and then ( idiot ) blew a mental gasket.
Manny won’t do either.
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
So you mean Floyd got lucky?
Floyd went at Shane in the end of round 2 and started his domination in the beginning of round 3. Shane stopped attacking due to Floyds aggression. When did Floyd get hurt to the body? He got hit with hard shots but hurt? I think you are blowing it out of proportion. Ortiz was hitting and missing alot when he had Floyd against the ropes.
That is why Victor head butted him out of frustration.
by Mohammedini Hussein on Sep 21, 2011 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions
When he laughed at those body shots
It was because it hurt
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
For me it be about 55-45 or 60-40 in favor of Floyd only because I think Floyd would adapt better if his plan A does not work compared to Pacquiao adapting if his plan A fail.s
pac has Freddy for if Plan A fails.
There is no safety in numbers, or in anything else--James Thurber, 1939
Freddie can’t go fight for him, and it’s been a long time since they’ve had to Plan B. The last difficult fight Pacquiao had was, of course, Marquez. 17 pounds and 7 fights ago. And I love Marquez, but he’s not Mayweather.
I actually agree that Floyd would be the better able to adapt — but of course I’d like to find out. Nobody else makes them do a lot of adapting.
Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Sep 20, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Roach would probably have a plan B, C, and D, ready to instruct Pac in case things don’t work with plan A, the problem would be executing said plan. The reason that makes me worry about that aspect for this fight if it were to happen is what I saw in Pac’s fights against Clottey and Mosely. Both of them went to extreme defense mode (Clottey turning into a turtle, Mosley by running around as much as possible), and Pac could not solve either riddle. Sure he won handidly both fights, but that’s because both Clottey and Mosley completely abandoned any sense of offense, so it was an easy points victory for Pac. The problem with Floyd is that he can go to extreme defense mode and still generate a very effective offense, so a points victory for Pac would be much tougher if he can not adapt and break through Floyd’s defense. In the end just like Scott (and everyone else) ‘d like to see how it plays out. My gut tells me that Pac’s offense would be too much too handle for Floyd, my brain says it’d be the other way around (Floyd’s D > Pac’s O).
In ring adjustments
If he has to rely on Roach then that means he is not good at in ring adjustments, and Floyd is.
Pacquiao might win due to Mayweather starting slowly
But that’s the chance I give him. Pacquiao’s biggest edge is on stamina. In most other ways, it’s a bad style matchup for Pac. I hate to say it (especially since I’ve seen a lot of idiots say it, and there really hasn’t been anyone like this for him to face in the weight classes he’s been in other than maybe Too Sharp Johnson), but there’s a reason he’s never faced a slick fighter. He wouldn’t get exposed, but it undoubtedly wouldn’t be his forte.
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He'd get banged up
But when is the last time that Floyd really hurt a welterweight. Forgetting Ortiz, please.
Floyd has never been in with anyone like Manny and obviously neither has Manny..but IMO, Manny isn’t the one creating red herrings si I believe it’s Floyd who doesn’t like what he sees in Manny…not the other way around.
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
Not KO hurt
But if you think those sharp very ACCURATE punches don’t hurt, you are crazy. Floyd may not KO dudes, but 12 rounds of getting hit right on the button hurts.
BTW
Exactly which slick black fighter are we talking about asManny climbed up through the ranks fighting every great Mexican. have I been missing someone?
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
I think Pac has a good chance to win due to his high Punch output
It is hard to win rounds against a guy that throws double the punches per round. Either way Floyds defense and counter punching will probably give Pac problems, but he lacks the power to make Pac respect him like Marquez had.
by Mohammedini Hussein on Sep 21, 2011 4:49 AM EDT reply actions
Pure Activity
Manny could win on that alone. If Floyd is not landing enough clean punches on Manny he could lose on the cards. I feel like judges generally go for the guy who is most active whether or not he actually lands the cleaner more effective punches.
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