Mayweather vs Ortiz: PPV Numbers Still Being Compiled, Rumors Floating of Weak Sales
by Scott Christ on Sep 23, 2011 7:33 PM EDT
in Boxing News Analysis
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Rumors are floating out there of weak sales for the Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Victor Ortiz pay-per-view fight on September 17, but Dan Rafael of ESPN.com says that numbers are still being compiled, and won't be released until at least Monday.
Those who care about this sort of thing can note that usually within the week after a fight, if numbers are good, someone releases a strong estimate, then notes, "And it'll go up when they're all counted!" It rarely goes up once they're all counted, as the estimate tends to be on the high side anyway, but generally speaking, we've heard something by now.
I'm not saying I think the numbers are weak, but it's worth thinking about. Why hasn't anyone at Golden Boy or HBO spoken about their usual jubilant early number?
Before the fight, Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy noted that the fight was "trending" very well, and one number thrown out for expectation was 1.75 million. I don't think it will be that high, and didn't think it would be that high when he said it. Oscar De La Hoya, being himself, predicted at the final press conference last week that he thought the fight would beat his 2.4 million mark, the pay-per-view record from his own 2007 fight with Mayweather. That was never, ever going to happen.
So with this going the way it is, what's your guess on the number right now? I thought it would do about 1.5 million before the fight, but I'm going to lower my guess at this point to 1.3 million. It's still very strong, but obviously I think Mayweather, HBO, Golden Boy, etc., would have liked it to hit that 1.5 mark or maybe above. Floyd's part-time fighting career has in some ways helped boost his PPV sales, but maybe this time it just wasn't the right time, wasn't the right opponent, or the promotion didn't grab people.
That is, if it is low. It might very well not be low at all, and either way, the fight generated considerable buzz. We'll also be on the lookout for the TV numbers that the replay draws on Saturday night, because I'm interested to see if that replay, without a live fight attached, and with it being something that everyone has seen by now somehow, does a good rating.
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I watched Mayweather-- Mosley in theatres and it was great
But its very hard to estimate how much intertest a fight had by PPV numbers. Like I said before, 1 person orders the fight and invites 20 other people over to watch. I’m sure everybody doesn’t sit at home by themselves and order big fights and watch them alone.
Then you have to look at bars, casinos and just any night spot, including movie theatres.
I know for Mayweather—Mosley the theatre was full and each ticket was $25. So for every ttwo tickets bought is just like another PPV buy. And it was in theatres nationwide.
So I’m just saying, its hard to say how a fight did until you add up everything, and thats almost impossible to do.
I can tell you by the way people who are just casual fans are talking about it, it did great.
"Winning is Everything"
Failure is not an Option
If you're not first, you're last
They know better what they consider success to be but I think that anything above 1.25 is a success. Below that, I think the promoter won’t show it, but they will be disappointed.
Does anyone know if this fight eventually sold out in Vegas?
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
I see you saw already, but no, it did not sell out, and like Steve said, probably didn’t even really come as close as it appears.
No matter what the PPV number is, if HBO has it, someone always finds out. Usually that someone is Dan Rafael, to his credit.
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Sep 24, 2011 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Thx SC
If there’re any two places where numbers lie and everyone lies about numbers….it’s Wall Streetand and Boxing.
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
interesting article
http://www.doghouseboxing.com/DHB/Kim0922a11.htm
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
People assume the same thing after every big fight
There hasn’t been a single Manny or May fight were internet users haven’t speculated that the fight didn’t sell well. I don’t see why this time is so different as to get its own article?
I mean, consider for a moment that the website for Manny vs Mosley itself predicted it would do just 600k buys; Boxing fans don’t have the best intuition for these things
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