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Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather: Unraveling The Statements Of Bob Arum

Bob Arum has outlined why May-Pac cannot happen. Do his excuses hold water?  (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

From a report earlier in the week in the Manila Standard, Bob Arum outlined two main reasons as to why a potential fight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather could not happen. His first reason was that Floyd had never been interested in fighting Manny Pacquiao.

"Until we hear from Mayweather that he wants to fight Manny in May, you really can't pin Manny down."

With a little twitter outburst today, Mayweather firmly dimissed Bob's first excuse by calling out Manny Pacquiao by name for the May 5th date.

Bob's second excuse was a little more involved and took into account the potential economic implications of making the fight on "short notice."

"If we did it on May 5, we will be limited to the MGM Grand and we would probably do a record gate of $20 million. If we did it in this new temporary arena, we would do a gate of around $60 million so the difference even if you take off the cost of building the structure ($7 million), which would be amortized over two years, is a minimum of $40 million. It's an extra $20 million for each fighter which is a lot of money. But that's a choice the fighters have to make."

Star-divide

Alright, so there are several issues to tackle in this statement. First, is it feasible to construct a 50,000-seat temporary stadium in a three-month period? Second, it is reasonable that the structure would take only $7 million dollars to build? Third, it is reasonable that adding more seats to a stadium would not decrease the mean ticket price?

Addressing the first issue, it does seem feasible to build a decent facility within three months. Probably the best comparison will be to Empire field which is a temporary football/soccer stadium in Vancouver. This stadium took three months to build and has a capacity of about 27,000. However, the stadium is not just a bunch of bleacher seats. Empire Field has 20,000 seat shells, 12 VIP suites, and 7,000 bench seating.

The total cost for building this stadium with the three-month timeline was $15 million, but included in this price is the installation of field turf. If keeping the price down was an absolute priority, then they could install primarily bench seating and get the price to be around the $7 million that Bob Arum quoted. However, if there is going to be mostly bench seating, I cannot see that the mean ticket price being $1212 (the amount necessary to get to the quoted $60 million). For a simple comparison, the most expensive tickets for Ortiz-Berto are only $300. The amount of seats close to the ring would be roughly the same in both the MGM stadium and the temporary stadium, so no scalable income there. If VIP suites were introduced to the temporary stadium, then that could counteract some of the cheaper bench seats but they would need at least the same 12 VIP suites. So Bob's estimate of $60 million is a little high and the cost for the stadium is a little low.

Based on the cursory research I did on this topic, I believe that it is possible to make a big temporary stadium in a three-month timeline. Do I think that it would be worth $20 million extra to each fighter? No probably more like $15 million but still a significant chunk of change. However, amount doesn't matter because it is completely feasible. So now that we can see that both of Bob's excuses are not real what's the next obstacle for this fight?

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Next obstacle?

More Arum BS.

Boxing is like jazz. The better it is, the less people appreciate it.
-George Foreman

by jsims2 on Jan 11, 2012 12:36 AM EST reply actions  

And after that?

More Arum BS.

Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses. --The Knockout Mechanism.

by battlestar on Jan 11, 2012 12:47 AM EST up reply actions  

that's some solid rastelnalysis right there

I don’t know about this other benchmark stadium, but i wonder how much cost VIP suites would add over a bare bones structure. Seems like it could be significant.

Also, do fighters get all of the gate, or does the bobfather really mean that he can offer each fighter $5m more if he can build a larger facility and get a $50-60m gate?

by Sentimental on Jan 11, 2012 1:10 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

Thanks for the kind words.

To your question, I would think that Floyd would legitimately get half of the gate. Of course some of that would go to Golden Boy so maybe that’s what you are getting at. Yeah the costs of VIP suites are interesting because they could be worth a ton of money but they would be expensive and time consuming. I guess I could try to get a better estimate if I broke down the $15 million dollar price tag into different seat types and then price out the field turf. But first I got some more stories to write, but I’ll get back to you on this one.

"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi

by Waldo Rastel on Jan 11, 2012 2:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Alright so field turf is at a maximum $1 million (includes materials and preparation). Most of the $15 million has to be labor costs and those bucket seats are labor intensive as are the VIP suites. The more I think about it the more I would say that the stadium costs would be around $10-$15 million.

"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi

by Waldo Rastel on Jan 11, 2012 3:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Negotiations take time

take the four major candidates expected to be presented to Manny this week. Discussions are followed by term sheets and LOI. and then more detailed discussions and re-drafts

All have to be drafted and negotiated.
For weeks at minimum.

I will predict that floyd already knew who he was going to fight May 5th… that he and his lawyers had to prove if not show evidence of his having prepared a named opponent….just to be granted the grace period to fight.

I am assuming that he has already spoken with, discussed and all but set terms for Robert Guerrero some time ago….and that he will announce this fight so soon it must have already been nailed downed beforehand.

to think otherwise would be to assume the DA was going to tell a convicted crimianl…“Go Ahead. Let us know when you find some work and in the meantime, go about your business. we trust you”

“But dont forget to come back and see us in June”

"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali

by pakinpower on Jan 11, 2012 2:07 AM EST reply actions  

Here's an idea

Try doing the real math by aggregating the ten longestopinions on this site. Deduct the two higheest and two lowest estimates. And divide by six.

That should tell you within say ten or tenty milllion give or take a few how much the May date purses may or may not differ from the November.

I would then post it and wait a day or two. Then take the ten longest posts, drop te two longest and the two shortest and again divide by Six. That sould add up to something with lots of zeros.

That is how real promoters run their metrics. My sources say they obsess over these numbers and these methods a that’s ho they decide which fights are made.

There is one other method. It’;s call Pin the tail on the Ass. That is when the promoters take a look at their rosters/stable of fighters and blindfold themselves and then stick a pin in a spot near a named fighter.

That is how I nderstand Floyd has GB choose Guererro.It’s far more dignified than looking outside the stable.

If anyone complains, you can just say Bob Arum nmade me do it.
Works every time.

"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali

by pakinpower on Jan 11, 2012 4:13 AM EST reply actions  

If anyone could translate Pakin’s post from crazy to English I would like to see it.

"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi

by Waldo Rastel on Jan 11, 2012 5:26 AM EST up reply actions  

I think that was the point. I was amused.

I honest to God had visions of both Oscar/Schaefer and Arum playing “Pin the Tail on the Ass.” I think that’s how Pacquiao-Mosley got made, and it would explain Mayweather-Guerrero.

Bad Left Hook
"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."

by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 5:35 AM EST up reply actions  

yes that's a high quality

visual. hair Richard and drunk and Teddy wearing dlh playing pin the tail on the ass. while arum says he will play by him self this time but hey there’s always the 30th of February if they wanna talk

He knows the guy with the bandage on his ass is going no were. Were you going fucking no were

by Elstriko on Jan 11, 2012 6:13 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Forgive all my typos I am dictating this on lame software.

I didn’t have a chance however to share your brilliant mathematical analysis above with two Goldman partners. I couldn’t tell impressed they were because they were laughing so hard.

So I thought retort in kind and that you would appreciate it most of all

The next time you do go to the trouble of employing your mathematical acumen try talking first to somebody who has actually put their own money into promotion.

"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali

by pakinpower on Jan 11, 2012 5:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I’ll make sure to consult myself then.

"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi

by Waldo Rastel on Jan 11, 2012 5:53 AM EST up reply actions  

You FOS Pakin

The only consulting your doing is to a Magic 8 Ball. I cant believe anyone would talk to you that much. I skip over most of your posts but the ones I do skim through irritate the hell out of me. You are the Cliff Claven of BLH.

by Craig111 on Jan 11, 2012 7:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Let know when you punch the clock at that maintainence job that’s been keeping you busy at the Burger King thse past night, junior.

For better or worse, I work, live and socialize with these folks everyday. Many are my friends; most are my clients. I listen closely to their ecominic anaysis and respect their acumen because they for the most part are very successful doing what they do best, whether it be real estate, private equitity, film finance, etc Get it. Successful people have the kind of money to build art collections. Thus the relationships.

They can run ROI on investments and real estate transactions in their sleep.

If you are irritated, I suggest you scratch you balls instead playing with them looking at your Mayweather posters.
Or try a balm.

"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali

by pakinpower on Jan 12, 2012 3:35 AM EST up reply actions  

damn dude

why you gotta have so much venom. and go after him with a burger king dig? if that is were he works cool maybe he can turn it into more or take it and get a better job from there. every body needs work and lots ppl could do those jobs you mentioned if thy had the same chances.

don’t get me wrong I belive a man makes his own way but were you start has a significant bearing on were you end up right?

He knows the guy with the bandage on his ass is going no were. Were you going fucking no were

by Elstriko on Jan 12, 2012 11:27 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

“this fight will happen when the sky is blue orange yellow green at the same time. that will probably be a day in june or november” bob arum

by Vicmatic1 on Jan 11, 2012 10:21 AM EST reply actions  

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