Mayweather vs Guerrero Won't Happen, Says Richard Schaefer
by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 7:44 PM EST
in Boxing News Analysis
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Dan Rafael of ESPN.com reports that Golden Boy's Richard Schaefer says a May 5 fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr and Robert Guerrero is not happening, so there's some relief.
Now get ready to something else that isn't very good, but will look better because it isn't Mayweather against Guerrero, a fight nobody wanted to see.
Mayweather (42-0, 26 KO) has that 48 hours for Manny Pacquiao to decide whether he wants the fight (he does, it won't happen), but most likely we'll see Floyd in with a Golden Boy guy. With Guerrero out, that leaves 21-year-old Canelo Alvarez as the leading candidate, or at least so it would seem. When Golden Boy named potential opponents recently, they had only Canelo and Guerrero on their list.
As for what I believe happened here, with Guerrero having been the top candidate all of two days ago, is Guerrero's name was floated out there in connection with the fight, the response came back overwhelmingly negative, and they chose to scrap the idea.
What about other possibilities?
Miguel Cotto (37-2, 30 KO) and Lamont Peterson (30-1-1, 15 KO) are promotional free agents, free to do what they wish, and both want paydays. Cotto, 31, remains loyal in his heart to Top Rank, Bob Arum, and Todd duBoef, and he may indeed be the lead candidate to face Manny Pacquiao in June, which would give him less reason to actively seek the Mayweather fight. He would probably make more to fight Pacquiao than he would Mayweather.
Peterson, 27, is supposedly in the discussion to face Pacquiao, but he's a distant fourth option. Basically, Top Rank would have to whiff on Cotto, Juan Manuel Marquez and Timothy Bradley in order for Peterson to get the fight with Pacquiao, and that's not going to happen. Most likely at this point is Peterson wins up facing Amir Khan in a rematch this spring.
Pretty much everyone Golden Boy has between 140 and 154 is tied up too close to the May 5 date for Mayweather to fight them -- guys like Victor Ortiz, Erik Morales (oh god, this again), James Kirkland, Danny Garcia, Devon Alexander, and Marcos Maidana are all fighting between February 11 and March 24, so they're pretty much out of the discussion.
The options are limited. It looks for all the world like Canelo Alvarez will be getting this fight, or at least has to be the new strong front-runner.
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Good, in a way
But as I said in the other thread, this was always like a kid asking for a tattoo do he can get an earring. But if the bar is a low as Guerrero, he’s got plenty of options. Humberto Soto or Erik Morales would also be pathetic, but each would be an improvement.
Still, there are no fewer than 10 GBP fighters who would love this fight, and you’re kidding yourself of you think anyone wouldn’t cancel an already scheduled fight to take this one. If he actually takes Pacquiao or Cotto I’ll be impressed, but I’m not holding my breath. I’ve been saying since the date was announced it would be Canelo.
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by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 7:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don’t think they could sell Erik Morales, Danny Garcia, James Kirkland, Devon Alexander, Marcos Maidana, Humberto Soto or Lucas Matthysse any better than they could have sold Robert Guerrero. I think every single one of those fights is a true blue flop. They gotta do Canelo, or land Cotto.
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by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
No, but at least they're all better fights
And with a little effort, I think they could sell Kirkland better.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 7:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And honestly
Casual fan arent that savvy. They could probably sell Morales better too.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 7:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Boxing promoters hate taking risks
But if GBP bought a bunch of ads on BET portraying Kirkland as the monster a lot of people think he is, saying he’s the biggest badass Mayweather has ever faced (which is true), I’d guess you get an extra 500k or so buys from that community. But that’s not how they sell fights these days, so they’d never try it, forgetting how guys like Liston and Frasier were turned into stars.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 8:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I also note you don't mention Amir Khan
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 7:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
They’re too heavily invested in Khan to risk him getting embarrassed right now, I think. It would really kill Khan’s momentum, what’s left of it.
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
But if course before that
I was saying Canelo would fight Mosley, so what the hell do I know.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 7:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If he doesn’t fight Floyd, it’s actually what i still expect for Canelo on 4/21 if they stick with that potential date for his return.
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
All things considered, I guess this can class as good news.
Cotto is my choice but Canelo will do fine. It will create a buzz and Canelo has the size advantage. Guerrero should not even have been in the discussion.
As for what I believe happened here, with Guerrero having been the top candidate all of two days ago, is Guerrero’s name was floated out there in connection with the fight, the response came back overwhelmingly negative, and they chose to scrap the idea.
Given how Floyd and Golden Boy have operated in the past, I think it’s more likely that they floated out a crappy name they never seriously intended to fight to make their true non-Pacquiao target look more attractive by comparison (and possibly also give Guerrero some attention in the process). A similar thing happened with the Malignaggi-Mosley and Spadafora-Ortiz switches in my opinion.
They didn’t have as few options before as they do now. I think Guerrero was given genuine consideration, however much it was, while Malignaggi and Spadafora and Matthew Hatton were definitely not. If people had responded with indifference or even some kind of positivity (somehow) to Guerrero, I really think they’d have done that right now. They just don’t have many guys to fight Floyd anymore who are in any way credible.
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough, but I think they did look extremely low on options prior to Berto-Mosley’s cancellation and prior to Ortiz beating Berto (which correct me if I’m wrong, I believe the Spadafora rumors preceded). The welterweight division in general and in terms of Golden Boy fighters in particular has been barren for a long time.
I mean you can say that they knew Berto-Mosley would be cancelled as soon as the Pacquiao fight didn’t happen or that they knew Ortiz would take the sucker deal to trump all sucker deals, but I don’t think I’ve really seen enough to convince me that Guerrero was given any more serious consideration than previous potential opponents, never mind being the clear frontrunner for the nod.
We don’t have to agree on how serious it was, but it was definitely more serious than Hatton/Spadafora/Malignaggi, which were rumor floats/creations, while this was said to have actual negotiations.
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by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
I’m sorry to hear this, because I was looking forward to this.
There is an at least 10-pound differential between the two, I know, and that will make the difference. But when I last heard, the other likely opponent was Saul Alvarez, who would be utterly overwhelmed by Mayweather.
I think that Guerrero would perform much better. He has more technical ability than Alvarez, and he’s much more ring savvy. I think that combined with his reflexive counterpunching, he’s quick enough to give a good fight. I think he’s a better left-hander in many ways than Pacquiao. And he’s a much better fighter than Marquez.
So, I think he’ll give a good fight, and earn a paycheck.
Oh no it’s Mario Serrano
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
I like Guerrero and I think he’s a fine boxer, but he’s been outfoxed by far lesser fighters than Mayweather and he’s pretty small.
Saul Alvarez may very well not perform much better than Guerrero would, but he’ll generate buzz and he’s a big dude. Saul or Cotto are the only two opponents that make sense.
i think you are a little bit exaggerated, but you are right when you say that guerrero would perform much better than canelo, he is better boxer, and he has the right style to fight mayweather, he is left with a great boxing level…. canelo won’t see floyd in the entire fight, he is like a stick!!!! if ortiz had trouble, just imagine canelo…
by EL CIERTO (VEN) on Jan 11, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Robert Guerrero's best win came over Malcolm friggin Klasse
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 9:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Stupid iPhone
Point being, we’re not in much of a position to evaluate how good he really is. And I still remember him getting whipped by Orlando Salido.
I’m not sure how a 5’6" featherweight who fights tentatively against guys who punch harder than he does provides more of a challenge than almost any natural 140+ pound fighter. He’d be savvy enough to avoid getting knocked out for a few rounds, but that’s about it. And if he’s willing to start picking on featherweights, there are about a half dozen who are better.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 9:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I do personally think you’re overstating the size issue. Guerrero was carrying 135/138 very well, and he’s closer to his listed 5’8" than 5’6". Not that I think this makes it any better of a fight (Floyd would play with him and have zero trouble), but Guerrero fighting at 140 or even 147 doesn’t seem wild to me. I just don’t want to see him jump two divisions to 147 right off to fight Mayweather because it will cost me money to see a certainty. He’s not good enough.
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"To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day..."
by Scott Christ on Jan 11, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Are you referring to some obscure Marquez? Hell, nevermind.
by Sentimental on Jan 12, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
i like guerrero for this fight, canelo fights so stiffy, he is like a stick, he doesn’t have waist movement at all, floyd is going to eat him alive!!!!
by EL CIERTO (VEN) on Jan 11, 2012 8:50 PM EST reply actions
If he is Mayweather’s opponent, I hope we get to see Alvarez try to use that silly shoulder roll he was using against Gomez again.
I agree that Canelo doesn't provide much more of a challenge
But wholeheartedly disagree that Guerrero would be a better fight.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2012 9:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I would like to see Cotto fight Mayweather. Granted, I don’t think he’s going to win, but I’d like to see him try. I know people think Cotto is slow, but I remember when he fought a good version of Sugar Shane and he was timing him perfectly. He was also keeping pace at first with Manny… until everything went to hell and “trainer” Joe Santiago had no plans. I dunno. He may get embarrased a la Marquez, but it’s a fight I still would like to watch.
"He's still a very strong fighter, but I am way better than he is" - Miguel Cotto
I would like to see Floyd’s team approach and/or ask Cotto to fight him. Period.
They won’t because they wont want to pay him the small potatoes they can pay some easy “money” name in May.
"Silence is golden when you can't think of a good answer"
---- Muhammed Ali
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