Chavez vs Rubio: Marco Antonio Rubio Has More to Worry About Than Judges, Referee
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 11:42 AM EST
in Boxing Commentary & Opinion
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Marco Antonio Rubio is ready to go for Saturday night's WBC middleweight title shot against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr in San Antonio, and had this to say at his final workout in Terreon, Mexico (via fightnews.com):
"I’ll keep the weight and try to keep calm with this confidence and desire to win that I have deep inside of me. The fight has had a lot of different comments in the media which I am grateful, but I’m another type of person. I concentrated on this fight. I’ve waited a long time and I hope to win. It’s time to be world champ."
Rubio (53-5-1, 46 KO) isn't in the most ideal situation on February 4, and he knows it. He's made clear he believes he needs to win via knockout, as he doesn't expect the judging to be fair, and he's already petitioned the WBC to replace Mexican referee Guadalupe Garcia with an international, neutral referee.
We'll have more on the fight all week leading up to Saturday's live coverage, of course, but I do want to say now that I'm finding this matchup more and more interesting, and more than the fight itself, I'm finding the perception of the matchup to be interesting.
Rubio, 31, is 10-0 (9 KO) in his last ten outings, dating back to his embarrassing, one-sided loss to then-world champ Kelly Pavlik in February 2009. This means he's on a roll, and given the lack of respect for Chavez as a legitimate fighter, many are expecting Rubio to give Chavez a ton of trouble.
But what's really there with thoes ten wins? Not much, if we're honest. Some greenhorns, a few journeymen, a couple guys who really had no business in there. The best win over that stretch is not David Lemieux, either, considering Lemieux went out and lost to Joachim Alcine in his next fight. It's Rigoberto Alvarez.
It's easy to forget now, I guess, but Pavlik really trounced Rubio, who looked intimidated and overwhelmed when he got his last really big opportunity. He also looked absolutely tiny compared to Pavlik, who is a legitimate middleweight with a big frame -- and so is Chavez. For a guy who can legitimately fight a bit at 160, Rubio has a small frame for the weight. Chavez has come into his last two fights on the HBO unofficial scales at 185 against Sebastian Zbik, and 1179 against Peter Manfredo. He's a big, sturdy middleweight who can take a shot.
I'm just saying that despite the criticism of Chavez, much of which is legit, Rubio probably has more to worry about than the judges. Top Rank has allowed this fight for a reason. They're confident Rubio can't win. Beating Chavez would be either a career-best win or damn close to it for the veteran.
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Chavez is the main event?
Actually hope he loses. My buddy is a total nutthugger and is annoying me immensely. His reasons for the hugging? His last name is also Chavez. SMH. Really I’m just hoping for a good scrap and Rubio sounds like he’s ready.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
Chavez is the main event?
Yes. People actually turn on their TVs and watch his fights, and he can draw a crowd to a venue, so he is the main event.
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"The internet has undermined professionalism in journalism, which is a good thing." - Bill James
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Already knew that...
Just thought Donaire was the main for some reason. Probably because he’s also been hyped up quite a bit.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Jan 30, 2012 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Donaire is a star on the internet. Chavez is a star with real people who buy tickets.
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"The internet has undermined professionalism in journalism, which is a good thing." - Bill James
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Personally, I think Chavez wins outright. I think he is too good for Rubio right now.
@KoryKitchen32 on twitter
I’m in the same camp. A lot of this is that I don’t think Rubio is actually very good, and I question how legitimate a step up he is over Zbik or Manfredo. He punches harder than them.
Bad Left Hook
"The internet has undermined professionalism in journalism, which is a good thing." - Bill James
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
I agree. I think some people are putting a little too much stock in Rubio’s win over Lemieux. Chavez and Roach can learn from Lemieux’s mistakes (basically don’t get carried away and punch yourself out).
@KoryKitchen32 on twitter
by Kory Kitchen on Jan 30, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
now that you mention it, you’re probably right. some of us may have gotten too excited for Rubio’s chances here. the size difference alone may be too much to overcome, & that’s not taking skill level into account either. legit question for you…is Rubio better than Zbik?
by KidSleez on Jan 30, 2012 12:31 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
A bit, but I also think he better plays to Chavez’s weaknesses (I’d say Chavez’s strengths, but really I think it’s his weaknesses that most matter).
Bad Left Hook
"The internet has undermined professionalism in journalism, which is a good thing." - Bill James
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
interesting…considering I thought Zbik won that fight, although I’m not sure Rubio can KO chavez either, so we could possibly wind up with a similar situation here. Rubio can legit claim he won the fight, and he obviously has already expressed concerns over not getting a fair shake. but that’s getting ahead of ourselves anyway. he still has to go out & get the job done
by KidSleez on Jan 30, 2012 1:44 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I think that’s the unknown key: the effect Rubio’s power will have on Chavez.
Name a legitimate power puncher has Chavez ever fought? Duddy? Chavez should be favored, but Rubio is live dog.
yeah, that’s what I want to know. also, will chavez size advantage be too much and neutralize Rubio’s power.
by KidSleez on Jan 30, 2012 1:46 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
This is if you consider Rubio a legitimate power puncher. His KO rate is nice, but whatever. Who’s he beaten?
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"The internet has undermined professionalism in journalism, which is a good thing." - Bill James
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
This
When the shit did Rubio become someone dangerous?
I think Chavez wins fairly easily. He obviously won’t blow out Rubio like Pavlik did, but I think Chavez is too big.
=d
The excuse (I don’t mean to use that word in a derogatory manner) has always been that Rubio wasn’t himself against Pavlik. I say it’s very possible that he was, and that Pavlik is just, you know, a lot goddamned better than Jose Luis Zertuche and Samuel Miller.
Bad Left Hook
"The internet has undermined professionalism in journalism, which is a good thing." - Bill James
by Scott Christ on Jan 30, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
he was also a lot better than Chavez is.
BTW, I don’t consider Rubio a puncher. He does have a bit of craft though. He’ll need it.
yes, but you have to take in consideration that chavez gets a lot of punches per fight, and rubio is the best power puncher he faces… rubio is not a big deal but chavez neither, i know chavez has develop his condition notablely, but his defense is defective, the question is, how much can he take?
by EL CIERTO (VEN) on Jan 30, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
agreed. this is why I said Rubio’s chances possibly are being overstated here. chavez gets hit a lot though & Rubio has decent power from what I’ve seen (admittedly not much as you guys have seen of him). so I guess Rubio’s actual power is somewhere between his KO rate & those who say the rate is way overblown
by KidSleez on Jan 30, 2012 4:07 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I want Chavez and Canelo to both get to 49-0 and have an ultimate battle of Mexico.
A firestorm to purify.
Sounds good to me.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Jan 30, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Chavez – Canelo makes May -Pac look doable.
"The bell that tolls for all in boxing belongs to a cash register."
-Bob Verdi
by Waldo Rastel on Jan 30, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see Chavez duck or slip a single punch before I pick him with confidence over anyone.
I’m also not convinced he’ll even make weight for this fight.
Absolutely absurd weight cutting on Jr’s part, and it will eventually catch up with him.
I’m rooting for the veteran and think he can do it.
If Zbik can land 100% of his punches, Rubio should be able to find the target.
I should point out that it's impossible to pick against Jr
Not only because of his connections, but it is guaranteed that he will throw way more punches than Rubio.
Still interested to see how the kid handles a tricky vet.
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