Jorge Arce is a heavy favorite tonight in Mexico. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
Jorge Arce is heavily favored to win his rematch tonight in Mexicali against Lorenzo Parra -- maybe too heavily favored.
When the two first met in September 2010, Arce (59-6-2, 45 KO) was lucky to escape with a draw, and many suspected some serious hometown bias in that fight, which took place in Culiacan. Now 32, Arce has won four straight, including a big upset win over Wilfredo Vazquez Jr last May.
Since toppling Vazquez in a great fight that stole the show on the Pacquiao vs Mosley card (which wasn't hard to do, but it was a legit fight), Arce has gone rematch mad, beating Simphiwe Nongqayi in September, and then Angky Angkotta in November, a rematch that made no sense since Arce easily beat Angkotta in 2010, but hey.
Here are the odds for Arce vs Parra II:
Now what makes this dangerous? After all, Arce's on a roll, and Parra (31-3-1, 18 KO) decidedly isn't, having badly lost his last fight to Anselmo Moreno.
It's stye. Parra should have easily lost to Arce the first time out if this was really a mismatch, but it isn't. Parra has a bad, bad style for Arce, and could very easily give him all he can handle once again.
Of course, that doesn't mean he'll win -- when you really ask the question here, it's just "Who will win?" Chances are Arce will win, even if he doesn't really win. Parra will have to knock Arce out to get the duke, most likely, and that's not his game.