Following tonight's Julio Cesar Chavez Jr win over Andy Lee on HBO, Top Rank announced an official date and location for a fight between Chavez and Sergio Martinez: September 15, HBO pay-per-view, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
As you likely know, Golden Boy recently announced a September 15 Showtime pay-per-view fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Victor Ortiz. I've already noted how incredibly unlikely it is that both of these fights will happen. But if you missed that, or don't want to read it, here's the quick breakdown.
- Live gates will be badly marginalized in Vegas. Promoters don't give away money. And shouldn't. It's a stupid idea.
- Cable and satellite companies who carry pay-per-views aren't going to allow this to happen. Why would they? It's a stupid idea.
- Both pay-per-views would be giving away money because fans can only buy one. Why would they give away that money? They won't. It's a stupid idea.
I'm not saying that these fights won't happen. I'm saying there's basically no way, without a remarkable and sudden disregard for money (from boxing promoters and the TV people who enable their products), that they will happen on the same date on pay-per-view.
So the real story here, I suspect, is this: Who blinks first? Who gives up their supposed date? Victor Ortiz still has to beat Josesito Lopez, and if he were to lose next Saturday, then at this point I'd have to expect Golden Boy to cancel Canelo's date. That would be the third opponent to fall through. You push him back or move him up in a lesser fight. And on the other side, we're talking about Chavez vs Martinez, a fight that all of a week ago, most still assumed would not happen.
One of these fights will not be happening on pay-per-view on September 15. Which one won't happen, though? That's the real question here, not how you'll manage to spend $130 watching boxing on your couch in one night.