(Writer's note - I'm new to BLH, first post of any kind, hello everyone! Hope you enjoy the fanpost, feel free to disagree or comment with any opinion.)
As usual in boxing, the quality of tonight's fight will all come down to matchmaking and the styles/abilities of the two boxers. To point out that Martinez vs Chavez jr. presents an intriguing clash of styles is very obvious, you all know that already, but when you really put it down on paper and look at it, I do find it interesting just how absolute and perfect a style clash this has the potential to be in pretty much every single category of the fight.
Here is what I mean by that.
I find it interesting how almost everything lines to a tee in pretty much every category, both in terms of the two boxer's styles and circumstances.
Of course, if Chavez Jr. can't even get to Martinez and hit him all fight, his great power won't matter much, and all his chin could do at most is assure he loses by decision instead of knockout. Watching Chavez Jr.'s latest bout against Andy Lee, that is a valid concern.
The first couple rounds of that fight, Lee was able to outbox and outpoint Chavez Jr. while mostly eluding any damaging punches from him. It was not until Lee let his emotions get to him and threw out his gameplan in favor of going toe-to-toe with Chavez Jr. that Chavez Jr. was able to punish him. If Andy Lee could outbox Chavez Jr. the first few rounds and even lead on the scorecards halfway through the fight, how will Chavez Jr. be able to catch the much quicker and more elusive Sergio Martinez?
But much like comparison chart above, even this argument has a reasonable counterpoint. Just as Chavez Jr.'s last bought against a lesser boxer than Sergio Martinez could give one doubts about how Chavez Jr. will fare against Martinez, one could argue that Martinez's last two bouts saw him struggle to an equal extent against what could be characterized as lesser versions of Chavez Jr..
Macklin and Barker were both slower, sturdier fighters than Martinez, just as Chavez Jr. is, except that both lacked the size, power, and overall offensive capabilities of Chavez Jr. Martinez was expected to dominate both fighters, but struggled to land quality flurries of punches for the majority of both fights, before ultimately taking over the fights late, much like Chavez Jr. was able to do against Andy Lee (but earlier). If Martinez struggled to solve Macklin and Barker until late in both fights with almost nothing dangerous coming back at him, how will he be able to land consistently against the much more dangerous Chavez Jr. without taking serious punishment?
Of course, in lieu of Chavez Jr's power, fighters like Macklin and Barker bring much more defense to the table, so in my opinion the two arguments do not necessarily line up as perfectly as the chart does. I definitely worry more about Chavez Jr's difficulty landing punches early in the Andy Lee fight than I do about Martinez's struggles to land against boxers who had essentially conceded defeat before the fight started and had very little interest or capacity in taking the risks necessary to have a chance at victory. I feel this way because I'm worried that anything Andy Lee can do for two rounds or three rounds in terms of outboxing Chavez Jr., Sergio Martinez might be able to do for the entire fight. And that would be the one and only scenario I can think of where this fight does not live up to expectations.
Otherwise, as long as Chavez Jr. can get to Martinez, I think everything else lines up perfectly as the above chart illustrates, and I feel this will be an excellent fight. (Unless, of course, Chavez Jr. gets to him too much too early, and Martinez's chin does not hold up, and Chavez Jr. lands himself an early knockout. But I'm less concerned about that scenario than the first).
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