It's worth wondering who the "house fighter" is here -- Cano is Mexican and fighting in Mexico, and it's a WBC-sanctioned bout, but Mosley is a well-liked veteran who's getting close to the bottom of the barrel by his standards, and a loss here pretty much kills his career, and the chance to juice a few more dollars out of him. I mean, there's a difference between being the Shane Mosley of right now and the Nate Campbell of right now. In terms of how far off their best days they are, they're not really far apart. But you don't see Nate headlining, even on FOX Deportes.
Mosley, 41, shouldn't be fighting if we're using things like his ability to perform as the measuring stick for that statement, but he's passing physicals well enough to satisfy commissions, he's willing, and, well, at least he tried against Canelo, unlike his rather pitiful display against Pacquiao in 2011.
Cano is, perhaps unfortunately, exactly mediocre enough to prolong Shane Mosley's career. It's so easy to pick Cano to win this fight, perhaps so handily that it becomes painful to watch a once-elite fighter flounder against a guy who will never sniff the heights he once reached, but I'm going to pick Mosley to win unimpressively and somewhat controversially on the cards. Here's the truth: I hope I'm wrong, and he loses without taking a real beating, and then that's just it. Mosley by split decision.
This, frankly, is a fight that I'd rather wasn't happening at all, but such is life and divorce settlements. Were this ten years ago - possibly even four, looking at the version of Mosley circa 1999, I'd have little hesitation in calling this as a Mosley early-to-mid rounds stoppage. As it is, I have trouble imagining any way in which Sugar Shane - if that moniker can still be applied without an uncomfortable grimace - can win this at all. That's not to say he won't, though, and he's a man who's defied the odds more than once before.
It's worth remembering, of course, that while Mosley's horrendous recent 0-3-1 run looks as horrendous on paper as it did in the ring, he has only lost to the very best. And not just 'very best' in that hackneyed turn of phrase, but the elite: Mayweather, Pacquiao, and a one-sided loss last time out to an almost-certain pound-for-pound mainstay, and divisional top dog, for the next few years in Canelo Alvarez.
What's debatable is whether Mosley can still hang with the guys a rung or two below, as almost everyone is. Cano's no world-beater, and quite possibly never will be, but Mosley, fighting on the road against a high-output guy the best part of twenty years his junior, doesn't bode well. The counter to that would be that an active, come-forward kind of guy is exactly what Mosley needs, rather than the elusive Sergio Moras of the world, but it seems a big ask. Cano by UD.
I think Cano is a little better than what most give him credit for. I thought he beat Paulie Malignaggi, and he has a fan-friendly style to boot. That spells trouble for Mosley, who will struggle against a younger opponent coming forward, and in need of a bit of a breakthrough type of win. Cano will try to get Mosley out of there in fear of losing another fight on the cards. "Sugar" Shane may win a round or two, but the effective shots will come from Cano. Mosley will be out of gas by the middle rounds and looking for a way out. Cano will oblige. Cano by 8th round stoppage in a sad fight.
To be brutally honest, I've not got a great deal of interest in this fight. Mosley shouldn't be fighting any more, he's got nothing left at all in terms of offence, not a thing, all he's got left is his rock solid chin, and even that showed signs of weakness in the Pacquiao fight.
Cano is a reasonable operator, he gave Malignaggi plenty to deal with last time out and looks to be a fighter who still has the potential to improve a lot over the next couple of years. I'd say Cano is better suited to 140lbs rather than 147, Mosley will be the far heavier man come fight night. Sadly, that'll be the only advantage Mosley will have.
Mosley may have sporadic successes in the first four rounds, after that it should be all Cano as the younger man's fitness and hunger takes over. Mosley is still tough enough to see out the rounds, yet it'll be Cano who gets his hand raised at the end. Cano PTS (around 117-111).
Final Tally: Pablo Cesar Cano 3, Shane Mosley 1.