Can it happen? Is Robert Guerrero the fighter to shock the world and give Floyd Mayweather his first loss?
In short, no. While this is about as good a fight as could be made on this date for Floyd, Guerrero is simply not on Mayweather's level. With all due respect to "The Ghost," this is sort of like a welterweight version of those Klitschko fights we've seen recently. It's not that Guerrero doesn't deserve to be here, since no one else really deserves it any more, it's just that the field has been lapped, and Guerrero is part of the field. He's a good fighter. He's not in Floyd Mayweather's league, though. If at the end of the night, Guerrero can lay claim to more than three rounds, I will be surprised. But I don't think it's going to the cards -- Guerrero and his father may have let their mouths write a check their hindquarters cannot cash. Floyd might be out to prove a point in this fight, and I don't expect him to shake hands when it's over, either. Mayweather TKO-8.
I don't see this as another Mayweather blowout. I genuinely feel Guerrero is a legitimate contender, and Floyd has slipped some in terms of speed. There were some signs in the middle of his fight with Miguel Cotto that he is human after all, and he will have aged another year since that bout. This may not be taking place at 154 like that one did, but Guerrero will likely be the bigger man come fight night. And whereas Cotto kept it clean, Guerrero is certainly not afraid to get dirty when sharing the ring with someone faster than he is.
I see this being a very close, back-and-forth type of fight. I think Guerrero will have some success early with his straight left while Mayweather gradually looks to find a way to counter it. As the fight wears on Mayweather will become a bit more aggressive, firing lead right hands more frequently in the middle rounds. I don't believe Guerrero will fold, however, and will rally to win a round or two in the later portion of the fight as he feels it slipping away. But Mayweather himself will turn it on in the championship rounds like he did against Cotto. He'll sweep the 11th and 12th to take a close, but unanimous decision in one of his most exciting fights. Mayweather by decision.
Guerrero possesses a lot of the tools needed to cause Mayweather problems - he's got a high work rate, is well schooled, carries decent power and doesn't mind roughing his opponent up if needs be. The big downside for Guerrero is that he can be easy to hit, which could be disastrous against a quick, accurate counter puncher like Mayweather. Whilst Mayweather showed signs of slowing a touch last time out against Cotto, he should still have the edge in speed against Guerrero. Additionally, I don't feel Mayweather's inactivity will be much of a problem for him, he's not fought regularly for a few years now and it doesn't seem to have affected his performances.
Guerrero will be game, and may take a couple of the early rounds, but I expect Mayweather to dominate proceedings from the fourth onwards. I wouldn't be surprised if Guerrero is dropped at some point, with Mayweather walking him onto a left hook or straight right, the classic punches against a southpaw. Guerrero has got a huge heart, so I expect him to hear the final bell, it'll be Mayweather who gets his hand raised, though. Mayweather via UD.