- Gennady Golovkin r1-6 ... £10 ... Evs paddypower.com
Gennady Golovkin is a massive 1/25 favourite for his world middleweight title defence against Osumanu Adama this weekend, which isn't much of a surprise for a man who is considered to be one of the pound for pound best.
Golovkin is also a ko-specialist, winning his last 15 fights by this route, and the bookies have priced him up at 1/7 to get a 16th straight stoppage.
To find some value you need to dig a bit deeper into the rounds betting market. Of Golovkin's last 15 bouts only three of his opponents managed to see the second half of the fight.
Matthew Macklin, who lost to Golovkin in round three last year, thinks that the Kazakh is more dangerous at range, which means the rangy Amada is in trouble. The stats also back this theory up, with Golovkin achieving quicker kos against taller and more aggressive fighters.
The stats also suggest that Golovkin is getting better in time, which is easy to believe, and with an experienced and fair referee like Luis Pabon marshalling the contest, the result should be an early ko.
The odds on Golovkin winning in rounds 1-6 are evens and these look like the best option to me. The odds work out slightly under evens if you want to back rounds 4-6 and rounds 7-9, which isn't a bad bet either. Although betting on rounds 1-9 seems like a sure thing you will only be able to get 1/3 on this result - ok if you've got lots of cash to throw at it but not the bet for me.