I figured before every big fight, or at least most of the big fights, I will post my analysis, breakdown, and prediction. One thing I'd like to ask is; no arguing on any of these fan posts. In the comment section, please write who you think will win the fight, and why. I always love hearing other's opinions before fights, because seeing different view points only make the fight more fun. Also, I'd love for anyone who likes the article, or respects it, to "rec" it. I'd like for as many people as possible to see the thread (before the fight), and as many comments/viewpoints as possible. I'd like the fan post to be visible on the homepage until after the fight (March 8th), so no matter if I win or lose, the post has credibility and accountability.
With that said, let me start my breakdown:
On March 8th, we will see two of the top 154 pounders square off in a PPV billed as "Toe to Toe". The match up is quite interesting, truly. Canelo Alvarez (23) is a young boxer-puncher with magnificent power in both fists, but specifically a thunderous right hand in which can knock his opponent to the canvas at any point. Alfredo Angulo (31) is a tough brawler. He fights one way and one way only; he comes at you. He is willing to take punishment in order to get inside on his opponents, and cuts off the ring very well.
There is quite an odd, wrong public opinion when it comes to Canelo Alvarez. Most people (noticed I said most) just see Canelo Alvarez as a young boxer with ferocious power, and a "brawler". He is not a brawler. He has pretty good hand speed, likes to counter with his right, and times his punches very well. While he can punch very hard, the reason I bring this up is because the fight is billed as "Toe to Toe", and quite frankly, this is unlikely.
In reality, Canelo Alvarez has never been much of a brawler and has never truly committed to going for the knockout. Against Austin Trout, Canelo Alvarez did not commit to getting inside with Trout. Trout was committed to the jab, and Canelo Alvarez was generally fighting from a distance. Against Floyd Mayweather Jr., Canelo Alvarez (instead of using his size), attempted to outbox the master in the center of the ring. In reality, Canelo Alvarez is not a boxer who has ever liked participating in a war, even if many believe he does. As I previously mentioned, Alfredo Angulo fights one way, which makes the handicapping of the fight much more simplistic. Meaning, we know how Angulo is going to approach Canelo. Angulo is going to step forward (not any other direction), take some punches to get inside, and cut off the ring.
Canelo will look quick in there, for sure. Canelo will have the speed advantage, and will definitely try to use some 1-2 combinations throughout the fight. The way I see it, Angulo is going to have to take some punches (some hard ones), in order to get inside, where he likes to fight.
The question of Angulo getting inside or not is simple to me. He will be able to. Angulo was able to force Lara against the ropes, he was able to get inside, and cut off the ring. To be reminded, Lara was a much more difficult task to get inside. Lara is a crafty, slick and defensive *boxer*. He attempted to dance circles at points, but Angulo did a terrific job cutting off the ring. If he was able to get inside against Lara, he'll be able to against Canelo.
With that said, Angulo took so much damage trying to work inside, that he eventually had to quit due to an eye injury. He is going to have to do something, all though I can't say what, to not take too much punishment from Canelo as he attempts to get inside.
In my opinion, this fight all comes down to how much punishment Angulo takes for going inside, can Angulo get through the first five rounds (without being knocked out, or behind a significant margin).
Here are my scenarios. In my opinion, the only two ways Canelo wins is by early knockout, or establishing too massive a lead for Angulo to come back. The reason I say this? Because I don't think Canelo can win going the distance, unless he gets some massive lead. Angulo needs to split the early rounds, and if he does, it'll be smooth sailing, in my opinion.
And, after all my analysis, this is my main point which seals the deal. Canelo Alvarez has shown very bad stamina throughout his rise to stardom. He was tired against Trout and he was tired against Mayweather. If he was tired against two boxers, with limited power, how is he going to hold up against the pressure fighter than Angulo is? He picked and chose his spots against Trout because he was tired. There were large spurts where he did not throw many punches. Luckily, his head movement was superb in that fight, and Trout did not have enough power to hurt Canelo during his breaks. However ... now, he is being put in the ring with a non-stop pressure fighter. Not only is this match up a recipe for stamina problems, he can not afford to take breaks against Angulo. Angulo is going to force him to fight a full twelve rounds. If he takes breaks against Angulo, Angulo will cut off the ring and punish him on the ropes.
This is why, as I said a few "paragraphs" up, one of the keys is can Angulo get through the first five rounds. Because, the only way I see Canelo losing is by early knockout or establishing too large of a margin in the early rounds (before tiring) for Angulo to overcome.
I believe Canelo is a Top 12 pound for pound fighter. If this was on pure talent, and if Canelo did not have stamina issues, I would pick him. But, it is not the case. I think, based on talent (because the style match up is not too bad for Canelo), Canelo will do well the first five rounds. The key is for Angulo to win two of the rounds, and to not get knocked out. Let me repeat. To win two of the rounds, and not get knocked out.
If Angulo can do that, I don't see a plausible scenario of Canelo winning. Mind you, I like Canelo. I think this fight is close, but I believe Canelo's stamina issues are going to be a very tough thing to overcome. Let me show a shoutout to "all action", who wrote a very good piece about Canelo's stamina issues. In fact, I agree with about everything he/she said.
THE PICK: (underdog) Alfredo Angulo, by decision.
Hope y'all liked it, please don't forget to comment and rec! :D