CompuBox PunchStat Report

James Kirkland  KO 6  Joel Julio 
03/07/2009    SAN JOSE, CA

The relentless Kirkland never really let Julio into the fight.  Mandingo got off a fight-high 85 punches in round one- 76 of which were power shots (landing 17).  Overall, Kirkland avg’d 77 punches thrown per round.  That pressure had Julio, who never hurt Kirkland, fighting in reverse all night.  Kirkland showed some discipline as well, averaging 23 jabs thrown per round.  He landed 43% (jabs) in round three (9 of 21) and 41% in round five (9 of 22).

Total Punches Landed / Thrown

Round    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kirkland 18/85 17/82 22/62 15/69 30/80 23/81         21% 21% 35% 22% 38% 28%         Julio 14/51 17/62 20/72 13/41 12/34 17/46         27% 27% 28% 32% 35% 37%

Jabs Landed / Thrown

Round    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kirkland 1/9 5/32 9/21 4/29 9/22 3/23         11% 16% 43% 14% 41% 13%         Julio 4/21 3/20 1/23 3/18 1/7 2/12         19% 15% 4% 17% 14% 17%

Power Punches Landed / Thrown

Round    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kirkland 17/76 12/50 13/41 11/40 21/58 20/58         22% 24% 32% 28% 36% 34%         Julio 10/30 14/42 19/49 10/23 11/27 15/34         33% 33% 39% 43% 41% 44%

Final CompuBox PunchStat Report                                                    

Punches  Landed / Thrown

	Total Punches	Jabs	Power Punches
Kirkland	125 / 459	31 / 136	94 / 323
	27%	23%	29%
Julio	93 / 306	14 / 101	79 / 205
	30%	14%	39%

My Thoughts: The third round was the only one I gave to Julio. It's no coincidence that it was his busiest round, the only three minutes of the fight he out-worked Kirkland. For the most part Kirkland just overwhelmed him with aggression and even landed more jabs in what was for the most part a jab-less fight. Julio's connect rate was fine -- he was a little sloppy, but much of that could be attributed to the fact that JK kept him fighting off his back foot for most of the fight. In that regard it's sort of amazing Julio hit him as hard as he did at times in the first four rounds at least, before Kirkland had him worn out and mentally defeated.

Kirkland's defense: We can say it needs work, but it's never going to be good. Again, I think fighters generally are who they are. You're never going to teach Kirkland to be good defensively. He could improve, and likely will just because he'll gain more experience, but he'll never be a good defensive fighter. It's not in the cards because it's not who he is. He trains to be a force of nature offensively, and so far, so good.

Despite HBO's best intentions, there's no getting around the fact that tonight's Boxing After Dark broadcast was a pretty big letdown.

Still, the good: Victor Ortiz looked outstanding in his two round win over Mike Arnaoutis, and James Kirkland's chin held up beautifully as he pounded out a destructive win over Joel Julio in a good action main event that turned decidedly one-sided in the fourth round.

Kirkland (25-0, 22 KO) forced Julio (34-3, 31 KO) to quit after six rounds, with Julio saying he could not breathe. The last three rounds of the fight were total domination by Kirkland over an exhausted Julio, who threw his best bombs at Kirkland early on and was hanging in there with the Austin native, only to fail to hurt him and absorb a ton of hard body shots along the way.

Kirkland's flaws were still evident, but bigger than Kirkland still having some weaknesses are the good things he did. He relentlessly pressured Julio and broke him down without much trouble, and he ate Julio's best shots without taking a step back. He did look hurt momentarily in the third, but then just started firing back.

For Julio, this is the end of the "future star" road if losses to Carlos Quintana and Sergiy Dzinziruk weren't. He may turn it around, sure, but right now he's looking like a hard-hitting B-side fighter for good rising fighters. He'll always be dangerous because he can punch, but he shouldn't be favored to beat anyone good.

Ortiz (24-1-1, 19 KO) stopped Arnaoutis (21-3-2, 12 KO) in the second after stunning him with a massive left hook, then unloading in the corner. After Arnaoutis' body went a standing limp after an uppercut, the referee jumped in to stop it.

The night's opening fight ended on a no-contest in the second round when Robert Guerrero and Daud Yordan collided head-first. The butt opened a bad cut that dripped directly into Guerrero's eye, and he immediately said he couldn't see. He seemed a bit lackadaisacal about it, and he's going to take some shots in the media and from fans. I think it's just something that happens, but it's natural. Fight fans love guts, and Guerrero quit immediately.

The card was quite good on paper and wound up disappointing without any argument. It happens, and it's worth saying that at least the intent of a good card was there. Kirkland overwhelming Julio is as much to blame as anything, and that's just the product of one guy doing great.

(Photo by Will Hart / HBO)

Round-by-round coverage and scoring of all three fights starts tonight at 10pm, and the card is televised on HBO Boxing After Dark. Join us! The main event could be special.

via www.hbo.com

In a somewhat interesting article on HBO.com, James Kirkland and Max Kellerman disagree about the quality of Joel Julio.

Said Kirkland:

"Don't get me wrong," he said, "cause I never look past anybody I fight. But to tell you the truth, I just don't see this as being that big in terms of my opponent, because Julio has two losses on his record now and they both came to southpaws. And he's never faced up against a southpaw like me."

And Kellerman:

"This is definitely James Kirkland's first major league fight," Kellerman told me. "Before this it was like triple-A and now this is a major league fight he's having on Saturday. And if he wins this one, and then one more major league fight, then he'll be looking at the postseason, the really big fights."

Kellerman also added his frank opinion on where Kirkland's at career-wise:

"I actually think Kirkland is two losses away from getting bounced back to the pack," he said. "When you think about it, the only fighter in recent years who attacks with the same immediacy and urgency that Kirkland does is Michael Katsidis. And it took two losses for Katsidis to get bounced backwards, Casamayor and then Juan Diaz. Guys like Kirkland and Katsidis - people like to watch them not only because they win, but because it's such constant, naked aggression when they fight. And that makes them a little different than anyone else."

I'm glad he said "If you think about it..." That's like a David Milch show with "anyways" used constantly as the transition in topic.

Kellerman was recently ripped to shreds by Steve Bunce, who is full of hot air (and other things sometimes) himself:

Max and Bunce should fight it out, but Bunce better look out. Max is harassin' punks like Mike Tyson:

I'm also including a poll here, because Kellerman's starting to meet a TON of criticism, and even though I've tried to like him, even I'm leaning toward just flat-out not being able to stand him at times lately.

Get your picks in! This thread will close at 9:30 ET on Saturday.

Post your picks in this thread or I will not count them. I can't chase picks around 15 posts.

James Kirkland v. Joel Julio (Junior Middleweights)

Kirkland is a big time fan favorite right now because of his offensive powerhouse style. But what I worry about in this matchup is not Joel Julio being a great fighter (he's not, and he's not going to be one), but simply Julio being good and heavy-handed enough to put the first L on Kirkland's sheet.

Kirkland (24-0, 21 KO) has yet to meet any real resistance. Julio might well go down to one of James' big shots, but I've seen Julio hit pretty well before and he recovered from it. The jury is out on Kirkland. Brian Vera stayed in the fight a long time (relative to the obscene punishment he took) but was not a real test. Vera can't box and cares nothing for defense. He is tough, that's about it.

Julio is a big puncher, a guy with legit knockout power. He's also a solid boxer. Neither of these guys have great defensive reputations. It's a fight I cannot pick with any certainty, so I'm just going with my gut and nothing more. But I'd say it's 90% we get a knockout, 70% we get a damn good fight, and about 30% we get an absolute barnburner. That last number may seem low, but there aren't that many GREAT fights. I'm talking 30% chance we get a war we won't soon forget. Julio KO-9

Victor Ortiz v. Mike Arnaoutis (Junior Welterweights)

Ortiz fights with rare ferocity, like a man possessed. Arnaoutis fights like he's a master technician, which he is not. He doesn't have much of a punch and is going to top out as a gatekeeper with decent skills. It's a fair enough test for Ortiz, but I think he runs over Arnaoutis with little difficulty. There's not a lot more to say. Arnaoutis will hang around a while, but will never really be in the fight. I also suspect that unless he gets an "opponent" spot on Shobox, this is the last we'll see of "Mighty Mike" on the big two networks. Ortiz TKO-11

Robert Guerrero v. Daud Yordan (Junior Lightweights)

Guerrero's jump from 126 to 130 pounds takes him from the upper tier of featherweight straight into the upper tier of junior lightweight. Some folks like to wait a couple fights for a dude to "adjust to his new weight," but I only caution like that in rare cases. Guerrero was a top five guy at 126 and he's 25 years old. 130 is a very weak division and he's instantly top three in my view, along with Humberto Soto and 23-year old Jorge Linares. Ranking somewhat untested Guerrero and Linares that high may seem foolish. I ask you if you'd really pick Cassius Baloyi or Mzone Fana to beat either of them, because I damn sure wouldn't.

Yordan is an Indonesian with some promise, but his record is quite soft and my gut instinct is Golden Boy doesn't see a whole lot in him if they're matching him up with Guerrero this quickly. HBO is saying they want only competitive fights, but there were plenty of guys that Guerrero could've fought if Golden Boy were looking to really promote Yordan heavily. Guerrero returned in January to destroy veteran Edel Ruiz with a first round body shot, eleven months after beating the living hell out of Jason Litzau on Shobox. He's too good, and he's fighting in his backyard in San Jose, too. Guerrero TKO-5

(Photo courtesy Laura De La Torre / 411mania.com)

The March 7 Boxing After Dark card is getting a slight facelift as it heads to The Tank in San Jose, California. The main event is still the fireworks-promising junior middleweight matchup between James Kirkland and Joel Julio, but Vivian Harris has been dropped from the undercard bout against Victor Ortiz. He will be replaced by Mike Arnaoutis.

Arnaoutis (21-2, 10 KO) is working on a four-fight win streak since back-to-back losses against Ricardo Torres and Kendall Holt in 2006-07, both fights frustrating to watch. Arnaoutis allowed Torres to get back into that fight and, ultimately, beat him, and in the fight against Holt, Arnaoutis had turned over the training reins to his father, who -- no offense -- didn't belong as the chief second for a fighter on the cusp of the division's elite. I don't think anyone that watched that fight would disagree with the notion that the senior Arnaoutis was terrible in the corner.

According to Dan Rafael's chat, Arnaoutis is replacing Harris because Harris' management apparently gave Golden Boy a bit too much of a hassle in negotiations for them to deem it worth the time. It's too bad Harris won't get the opportunity, because had he knocked off Ortiz, he's right back in the mix at 140. This is a former titleholder that just fought at a Medieval Times in Lyndhurst, New Jersey. Vivian's career isn't on the upswing. Getting on HBO against Ortiz could've been big.

At the same time, losing badly to Ortiz would have been a death sentence for his career. Maybe he could use a couple more fights before he tackles something like that. He's fought just once since Junior Witter knocked him flat in September 2007.

Ortiz-Arnaoutis is a decent replacement scrap, too. Arnaoutis has talent, but I worry that he doesn't have anything close to the killer instinct and savageness it will take to beat Ortiz, who will come with his guns blazing. Mighty Mike doesn't have big power and isn't, like, the best boxer in the world or anything.

Last I'd heard HBO and Golden Boy wanted to get Robert Guerrero on this card, too, provided he doesn't get hurt or anything against Edel Ruiz tonight. Guerrero is from the area and is a familiar face, so it makes sense.

If you hear a rumbling in the boxing world right now, it's probably coming from HBO's newest card, scheduled for March 7. In the main event, there should be thunder aplenty when James Kirkland faces Joel Julio in what could be a stunning battle between young punchers.

Julio (34-2, 31 KO) is without any question the toughest test yet for Kirkland (24-0, 21 KO), who has become a hot rising star thanks in large part to HBO wins over Eromosele Albert and Brian Vera. Neither of those fighters brings the power that Julio does, however.

Cameron Dunkin, manager for Kirkland, admits readily that this is a dangerous fight. Frankly, if I'm part of Team Kirkland, I hate this fight for my guy. But I would also admire the guts he's displaying by taking such a risky matchup. Too many fighters, in my view, are coddled for too long these days. Danny Jacobs, I've said before, has nothing more to learn about boxing or about himself by smashing more bums. Kirkland has nothing more to learn fighting club fighters like Vera. Sure, Vera stood up to him well, but he was never a serious threat to Kirkland.

Julio is a serious threat. The young man can throw down. His two losses have come against crafty southpaws Carlos Quintana and Sergei Dzinziruk, the latter a fight most guys in his position wouldn't have taken, but he's another guy who's shown the balls to take tough fights, and has probably learned something in defeat.

In short, I love this fight, I love HBO for making it, and I respect the hell out of both fighters for taking it on. Kudos all around.

The co-feature that night will pit Golden Boy's new golden child, Victor Ortiz, against veteran Vivian Harris is a nice step-up fight for Ortiz. It's also a battle of dudes whose nickname is "Vicious."

Little has been heard or seen of Harris (29-3-1, 19 KO) since his September 2007 loss to Junior Witter, a fight where Witter flat-out kicked Harris' ass around the ring. He took 13 months off before returning to the ring last October, fighting at a Medieval Times in Lyndhurst, New Jersey.

But if he knocks off Ortiz (23-1-1, 18 KO), then he's right back in the mix at 140. A win for Ortiz, on the other hand, means Victor now has a real Quality Win on his record, and that's generally enough to land a sanctioning body title shot.

I like this fight, too, to be honest. I figure Ortiz has a fairly easy time with Harris, but Vivian has to know this is damn close to a last shot opportunity. He's 30 years old and seems far removed from his run as WBA junior welterweight titlist.

Golden Boy is also trying to get HBO to make the March 7 card a tripleheader with Robert Guerrero in another bout. Guerrero returns after a long absence on the off-TV undercard of Margarito-Mosley on Jan. 17, and would likely be ready to fight again by March 7 barring any injury.

The other fight HBO reportedly has locked up is the long-rumored April 4 showdown between 122-pound titlist Juan Manuel Lopez (24-0, 22 KO) and 118-pound titleholder Gerry Penalosa (53-6-2, 36 KO).

Penalosa, at 36, may not seem at first glance to be a great challenge for Lopez, and with the explosive way that Juanma fights, he might wind up not being a great challenge. But even though he's advanced in age, Penalosa is still one tough cookie with a lot of skills. The fight will take place in Puerto Rico, Lopez's home country, and I hope they find a decent co-feature for the show. WBO featherweight titlist Steven Luevano has been mentioned for that date, and I doubt they could convince him to face Mario Santiago in a rematch in Santiago's country, but hey, it's worth a shot. Ask Luevano if he'd rather not fight on TV at all.

The Lopez-Penalosa card will essentially go head-to-head with Showtime's offering of a 140-pound title unification between Timothy Bradley and Kendall Holt. I've complained about these things before -- we all have. Once last year a Showtime rep talked to me about how they run the first Saturday of the month and HBO is really counter-programming them and not the other way around, and while I see his point...Showtime doesn't really run the first Saturday of the month every month. I've more come to accept that it's a reality we have to deal with now and then. There are only so many Saturdays.