Juan Manuel Lopez and Yuriorkis Gamboa will take their doubleheader to Madison Square Garden in January. It could be the final step before a meeting between the two young stars. (Photo by Chris Farina / Top Rank)

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Bob Arum told Primera Hora (link in Spanish) that although previous talks had the January 23 HBO card featuring Juan Manuel Lopez and Yuriorkis Gamboa based in Lopez's native Puerto Rico, the card is now headed to Madison Square Garden in New York City. He doesn't indicate whether it will be at the main arena or the WaMu Theater, where the October 10 Lopez/Gamboa PPV card was held.

A quick look at the New York Knicks schedule tells me the Knicks are off that night, but do play at 1pm the following afternoon at MSG. There's nothing at all scheduled on January 23 at MSG or the other venues connected to the arena, in fact. Still, I'd expect WaMu first.

It also looks like the card is pretty much set with Lopez (27-0, 24 KO) moving up to 126 pounds to take on WBO titlist Steven Luevano (37-1-1, 15 KO). Gamboa (16-0, 14 KO) is slated to face the man who gave Lopez his Fight of the Year candidate test in October, Rogers Mtagwa (26-13-2, 18 KO).

Should Gamboa demolish Mtagwa within the first five rounds and Lopez win against Luevano, it probably sets up a summer showdown between the two young KO artists. I also expect we'll be inundated with, "Look how easily Gamboa beat Mtagwa, and how much trouble Lopez had! That means Gamboa will destroy Lopez!"

I don't really see it that way. I'll say right now I already figure Gamboa will get Mtagwa out of there within five or six rounds. He's much better in a back-and-forth firefight than is Lopez, and Mtagwa's wildness will be countered by Gamboa's own free-swinging ways. It's what Gamboa is really great at, letting his hands go, throwing from all over, and showing off his incredible handspeed. As good as Lopez is, he's a bit more straightforward than that, and not as fast as Gamboa. I think the style matchup against Lopez helped Mtagwa. I think the style matchup against Gamboa puts Mtagwa in an unwinnable fight. Even if he manages to knock Gamboa down, he won't be the first to do that, and I don't think he's got the one-shot pop to knock him out.

But I also don't want to overlook Luevano against Lopez. Luevano's methodical, well-disciplined style could give Lopez fits if JuanMa is out there trying to be flashy and impressive after a win over Mtagwa that raised some questions about him for the first time.

Steven Luevano will likely defend his featherweight title against Juan Manuel Lopez on January 23 in Puerto Rico. Yuriorkis Gamboa and Bernabe Concepcion will be in the co-feature. (Photo via www.boxnews.com.ua)

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It looks like you can forget about a Juan Manuel Lopez-Celestino Caballero fight for 122-pound supremacy on January 23, as all signs now point to Lopez moving up in weight to challenge featherweight titlist Steven Luevano on the January 23 edition of HBO Boxing After Dark from Puerto Rico.

Recent Top Rank press material listed that as the January 23 main event, with a Yuriorkis Gamboa-Bernabe Concepcion bout as the co-feature, and now Lopez's co-promoter, Ivan Rivera of Puerto Rico Best Boxing, says that Luevano-Lopez is the plan (link in Spanish).

From El Nuevo Dia:

"Everything indicates that it will be Steve Luevano, first because he's also with Top Rank, and it's a much better deal; and second because [Lopez] has talked of going up in weight after his fight with Mtagwa. For a long while, Juanma has had trouble making 122."

I can't say as though it's surprising. This is another instance where Arum and Top Rank don't have to seriously co-promote with anyone, and if Lopez wins, he just beat a good titlist in another division. If Luevano pulls the upset, at least they've got the guy that mucked up some of their plans, and can try to do something with him.

For anyone that thinks Luevano (37-1-1, 15 KO) will be easy for Lopez, I'll throw in a differing opinion. The southpaw may not have much power, but he doesn't make many mistakes, and he's a completely different challenge from Rogers Mtagwa.

That said, there's a decent enough reason to consider Juanma a heavy favorite. He's better at pretty much everything, and if he's able to handle a fellow southpaw, he should do fine. Luevano isn't going to get Lopez to go all cowboy the way Mtagwa did, and at the end of the day fighting a dumb, fan-friendly war with Mtagwa is really the only reason Juanma got into trouble this past Saturday. Luevano's skills are pretty simple, he's not tricky, and he can't win a firefight with Lopez.

The undercard bout is perhaps more interesting to some, with 21-year old Filipino Concepcion (27-3-1, 15 KO) challenging Gamboa (16-0, 14 KO), but frankly I see Gamboa blowing Concepcion out of the water in that one. Concepcion isn't a bad fighter, but he's no phenom. His last was a seven-round DQ loss in an utter stinker against Luevano on August 15. The best thing I can say about this card -- which I like -- is that it almost promises to help us totally avoid Luevano-Concepcion II, which had been discussed.

Actually, Concepcion seems like a guy that might hit his peak and his true career stride with 8-10 losses in five or six years. He's still extremely young, but Gamboa will almost surely be loss number four in January.

Juan Manuel Lopez says he's not ducking Celestino Caballero. He believes his promoter, however, is. (AP Photo)

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Speaking with Primera Hora upon his arrival in Puerto Rico after Saturday's grueling fight with Rogers Mtagwa, Juan Manuel Lopez discussed Celestino Caballero and had a firm answer (link in Spanish): It's Top Rank, not him, avoiding the Panamanian titlist.

Caballero has been talking trash for months toward Lopez, and Lopez has said he'd like to fight him. He said it again today:

"I want to fight Celestino for all the trash talking, but the company has other plans. If I can't get him now, perhaps another time."

I'd say Lopez was trying to skirt the issue, but he's not. He was vocally displeased with Rogers Mtagwa as his October opponent, as he wanted a bigger fight, and even though it turned out to be a great battle and a Fight of the Year candidate, he was still right about that. That date could've been Lopez-Caballero. January supposedly was all but delivered as Lopez-Caballero. And now, it's looking more and more like that won't happen. When even Lopez is pretty sure it's not going to happen and is basically just throwing Arum and Co. under the bus on why it's not happening, it's probably not happening.

This makes me think we're most likely to see Lopez go up to 126 to fight Steven Luevano for his title, with Yuriorkis Gamboa facing Bernabe Concepcion on that same January 23 card.  Anything that avoids Luevano-Concepcion II is fine by anyone that saw their first, erm, "fight," but Luevano's just good enough and technically sound enough to wind up playing spoiler if Lopez has an off night.

The good news is that Luevano is highly unlikely to try and goad Lopez into a brawl, which is what Mtagwa did to find some success against Juanma, and frankly Lopez is a highly skilled boxer when he puts it to use. It might not wind up exciting, but Lopez should and would be considered a strong favorite over Luevano. Not a good style matchup for Luevano, I don't think.

Luevano, again, was the name used as Lopez's Jan. 23 opponent on recent Top Rank press materials, so maybe that wasn't just a placeholder. I'd rather see Lopez againat Elio Rojas, but getting Don King to make a fight can be pulling teeth anymore.

Bottom line, though: While back-and-forth media barbs like this lead sometimes to fights getting signed (as appears to be the case with Diaz-Malignaggi II), it doesn't look like this is one of those times. The audience actually clamoring for Lopez-Caballero is fairly small, and Bob Arum knows that 95% of that same diehard audience will tune in to watch Lopez on January 23 no matter who he fights.

Celestino Caballero and his promoter say no offer has come from Top Rank to fight Juan Manuel Lopez. Top Rank's Bob Arum claims he offered $150,000. (Photo via a.espncdn.com)

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Leon Margules, who promotes Celestino Caballero under the Seminole Warriors banner, told Rick Reeno that despite Bob Arum's claim to the contrary, no offer has been made for Caballero to fight Juan Manuel Lopez.

Last night, Arum said Top Rank had made a $150,000 offer to Caballero to fight on January 23. Margules says that's not true:

"The kid comes in and asks for tickets to the fight. And they [Top Rank] agree - but why would you seat him in 203 and not ringside where the guy can be seen? Because you have no intention of getting in the ring with him because you know your guy is going to get beat. He [Arum] never made me an offer. Nobody [from Top Rank] made me an offer," Margules said. "He has no intention to fight Caballero because he is afraid of him."

As for Arum talking about Lopez fighting Steven Luevano or Elio Rojas, Margules says that's not what the fans want:

"The best opponent that the fans want to see him fight is Caballero, and he is also the most reasonably priced. Do you think [Luevano's manager] Cameron Dunkin is going to send Luevano will to Puerto Rico for less money? Do you think Don King [Rojas' promoter] will? They haven't offered anything. The best deal that can be made is Caballero," Margules said.

I don't know that on the larger scale, Lopez-Caballero is really any bigger of a fight than Luevano-Lopez or Rojas-Lopez. Clearly, Juanma is planning to move up to 126 pounds, perhaps not because he needs to, but because there are far, far more good fights there than at 122. At 122, the only truly viable fight is Caballero, and Caballero, good as he is, is no star.

The tentative plan has been to put this fight in Puerto Rico, though, as Margules says, and that should mean that Lopez would be the clear A-side anyway. Right now Top Rank's obvious and stated plan is to set up Lopez against Yuriorkis Gamboa next summer, thinking that will be a dynamite fight between two young stars, and it likely would be. The fact is, Lopez might not be "afraid" of Caballero, but Arum might be. Caballero beating Lopez screws up a lot of plans -- to be fair, it shouldn't, since Caballero beating Lopez probably wouldn't make me want to see Gamboa-Lopez any less, but that's how boxing promoters think. Protect, protect, protect, and then try to cash in a few times.

Will Juan Manuel Lopez still look to fight Celestino Caballero in January? Caballero has his doubts, and Bob Arum didn't drop Caballero's name post-fight. (AP Photo)

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The dust has barely settled after Juan Manuel Lopez's Fight of the Year candidate win over Rogers Mtagwa, and fellow top 122-pounder Celestino Caballero is already saying that Lopez was "exposed" and that he now doesn't think the Puerto Rican titlist will fight him. Caballero and Lopez were in negotiations for a January 23 fight on HBO's Boxing After Dark, a date that will indeed feature Lopez, but maybe not Caballero.

From Rick Reeno:

"I came all the way from Panama to watch Juama get exposed by an old man like Mtagwa. He put in the newspaper [that] after Mtagwa he wanted Celestino. He is so scared that they didn't even my name after the fight. Now I put a statement to every super bantamweight or featherweight - who dares to challenge me - because I lost all my hope with Juanma Lopez. Because it's a fact that he will go to Puerto Rico to hide behind the shell of a clam.

"After the fight, everybody ran away. None of the executives from Top Rank approached my adviser Sampson Lewkowicz or myself. Everyone knows in the arena, if I was in there tonight - he would been knocked out cold."

Caballero had promised to confront Lopez in-ring after the fight, but didn't. There are a few quick B.S. calls on Caballero here, though, the least notable of which is his calling Mtagwa, 30, "an old man." Caballero is 33 years old.

Look, Caballero hasn't exactly been fighting Murderer's Row. He took a fight in late August with a guy (Francisco Leal) who had even less business fighting for a title than Mtagwa did, and in his fight before that he nearly lost to Jeffrey Mathebula, a bout that sort of played out the same way Lopez-Mtagwa did. Good fight, close fight, the favorite still won. Was Caballero "exposed" by Mathebula? This "exposed" talk is tired. "Exposed" as what? Not invincible? Only the dopes are thinking any fighter is invincible anyway, no matter how anyone is marketed. If you want to let the marketing effect how you watch boxing, that's your call.

I'm also not saying it's easy for Caballero to make fights, but he's fought better competition in the past when he was just as dangerous as he is now. His recent run of opposition, outside of Steve Molitor (whom he crushed), leaves something to be desired in a lot of ways.

But -- and this is the real key -- he's very right about one thing: Bob Arum mentioned several potential opponents, but did not say Celestino Caballero's name. He named Top Rank fighter and featherweight titlist Steven Luevano, who has been listed on Top Rank press materials as Lopez's tentative January 23 opponent. He named another featherweight titleholder, Elio Rojas, which honestly could be a pretty damn good fight.

If Lopez is going to move up, he's going to move up. It'd be a shame to not see Lopez and Caballero go head-to-head for supremacy at 122 pounds, but if they don't fight, it'll be because of money more than fear, I'm guessing. People will be free to interpret it however they wish.

Will Arum look for a potentially softer touch? Maybe, but I don't really see Luevano or Rojas as too much softer than Caballero. Even after a tight battle with the rugged Mtagwa, I would still favor Lopez over Caballero personally, just because of the styles, and we've also now seen Lopez's chin prove out. Despite Caballero's towering 5'11" frame at 122 pounds, he's no bigger a hitter than Mtagwa.

Caballero is just doing his job, trying to stir up interest in the fight, and there's plenty of it among the fans. Again, I'd love to see it. But don't be surprised if it doesn't happen, and don't be so quick to assume it's any fear on Lopez's part. If there's more money in it for Top Rank to pair Lopez with Luevano or Rojas as they keep working toward a probable summer 2010 Lopez-Gamboa fight, Lopez-Caballero won't happen.