1. All hail the new lightweight king!

By knocking out Casamayor, Juan Manuel Marquez accomplished several things at once. First off, he became the first man to ever stop Casamayor, and it's not like Joel hasn't ever been in there with guys that could finish a fight.

Secondly, he showed again that at 35, his manner of "has slowed down some" isn't exactly bothersome. He is still a world-class fighter in every respect and one of the three best, pound-for-pound, in the sport today.

Third, and most important, he took Casamayor's legitimate, lineal, Ring Magazine lightweight championship. Marquez is the man at 135 -- not Pacquiao, not Campbell, not anyone else. It's Juan Manuel Marquez. To be THE lightweight champion, you have to beat Marquez.

I am one of the few that actually likes Casamayor. I've always liked watching him fight, I like his genuine mean streak, I like his style in the ring. I'm just a fan of his. And I thought he fought as well as he could last night, but that Marquez was just the better man. I had the fight scored close (96-95 for Marquez at the time of stoppage), but I also noted during the bout that the only rounds that were clearly in one man's favor all belonged to Marquez. Casamayor never dominated a round, though I thought he won his share.

The fight stats tell you that Marquez was clearly winning, though they were padded a bit by those rounds where he smoked Joel. Joel did win rounds, and it was a very competitive fight. The spectacular finish secured this as a memorable bout.

But while I like Casamayor, I did hate having to always almost cattle prod my way into noting time and again that he was THE lightweight champion. He won a great fight against Michael Katsidis in March, and his performance was highly respectable last night, too. But neither erases the nasty stink of his gift decision win over Jose Armando Santa Cruz last November, and that wasn't going to go away. With Marquez, there's no controversy, there's no debate. He's the lightweight champion. Fact. Plain and simple.

2. So what's next?

I'd bet good money that we'll see Marquez make a defense against Juan Diaz in early 2009, as both fighters are Golden Boy-controlled and the fight is very attractive on paper. That'd be a good one, but then again I think just about any fight those two have should be a good one, so that's kind of a no-brainer. After beating Katsidis on September 6, Diaz was rumored to be in line for the winner of last night's fight. It seems like an easy situation to manage, and should probably go forward. Hopefully they don't think it's a 45-dollar pay-per-view next time.

As for Casamayor...? I do think he can still fight at a very high level, and I'd keep him at the back end of the division's top five after last night. (I'm going to update the lightweight rankings later, so there's a spoiler.)

That said, he should strongly consider retirement so long as he's financially secure. It seems like it takes a big fight to motivate him, and right now there just might not be any of those out there, unless he wants to try to make something happen with Nate Campbell, which might not be so easy to do now that Casamayor doesn't bring a whole lot to the table other than a revenge story for Nate. Casamayor should go to the Hall of Fame, or he's borderline at the least. But he's also 37, has no title, and has never been a draw. He doesn't have that many fans, frankly.

The older he gets, the closer he comes to fully losing what he's great at, which is counter-punching out of being exceptionally elusive. He had SOME of that last night, but he also got tagged with a lot of punches that the younger Casamayor avoids. An in-prime Casamayor could have fairly easily beaten the Juan Manuel Marquez of last night, I think. Marquez was straightforward, threw good combinations, but also left himself open enough that a peak years "El Cepillo" would've smacked him around more than the 37-year version did. That's not to discount Marquez's greatness or question him in any way; it's merely saying that Joel, good as he still can be, has definitely slipped. Walking away from the sport a proud loser against a great fighter would be no shame.

3. Speaking of shame, Joan Guzman ought to have plenty of it today

Last night was supposed to be a banner night for the lightweight division. Casamayor and Marquez held up their end of the bargain in Las Vegas, and Biloxi, Miss., was to play host to a three-title bout between WBA/WBO/IBF titlist Nate Campbell and rival Joan Guzman, who like Marquez was stepping up from 130 pounds.

It might not seem like the biggest deal ever, but the unprofessionalism shown by Joan Guzman is absolutely deplorable for a number of reasons. There is literally no reason he shouldn't have been able to make 135 pounds. He's had weight issues in the past, but come on -- at what division does it stop, you know? We don't need another Jose Luis Castillo. Coming in three and a half pounds over the limit, Campbell would've been absolutely justified in saying, "No deal. Fight's off." That's the exact weight differential in the exact class that allowed Castillo to beat the crap out of Diego Corrales in their second fight. It IS a big deal.

But Campbell was willing to go out there in a non-title matchup, which would at least have given the Biloxi fans an event that they'd paid to see. Instead, with the fight cancelled because of doctors advising Guzman not to risk it, everyone is ripped off. Showtime is ripped off, the promoters are ripped off, Campbell is ripped off, the fans of Biloxi are ripped off, and the general boxing public that largely planned to watch that fight instead of a $45 pay-per-view are ripped off, too.

When I say Campbell was ripped off, I don't mean monetarily. He will get his purse. This isn't his fault. But Campbell took time away from his family to work his ass off to prepare for this fight, and it was for nothing. Nate could've fight any number of other guys, but he chose a fight with Guzman because Guzman's a good fighter, a legitimate challenger, and it's a fight people wanted to see.

Joan Guzman did the sport of boxing a disservice yesterday. You've got a few thousand more fans in Mississippi that now will be going, "Jeez, boxing sucks, this guy didn't even show up." Last-minute cancellations are disastrous. Guzman has cost a lot of people a lot of money with this. He and his team gave no prior warning that their man was having trouble making weight, as Jorge Barrios and his team did the week before when their guy was struggling to get down to 130 against Rocky Juarez. That was the right way to handle it. This was exactly the wrong way.

As talented as he is, Guzman all but blackballed himself. He's going to be fined and suspended in Mississippi, and that suspension will be effective all over the United States. He's not a name fighter to begin with -- we know him, but we know a lot of fighters that most people have never heard of. He's inactive, he's got only a couple of big wins, and he's no box office draw at all. The major networks are not going to rush to commit to this guy again considering how little he brings to the table business-wise. It's a shame, because he can really fight. But he did this to himself.

4. No MORA that, huh?

Sergio Mora suffered his first career defeat, an unquestionable manhandling loss to Vernon Forrest in their "anticipated" rematch. Forrest won by wide scores of 119-108, 118-109 and 117-110. Mora was never really in the fight. Vernon had his number, was obviously in shape this time, and clearly studied video. The best thing might be that we won't get any of those play on words Mora headlines any time soon, for which I'm thankful. Thanks, Vernon!

This should end Mora's time as a big money fighter, pretty much as soon as it starts. He's not untalented, but if a guy is able to find a home for some offense against his herky-jerky defense, his lack of ANY power just neuters him, more or less.

The loss will probably see Mora go back up to 160 pounds, since he had trouble making 154 this time. The story of his career, I expect, will be that he had one good night against someone else's bad night. Clearly, when Forrest was on-point, Mora was no match for him. It was a man fighting a boy.

5. Let's talk retirement again

21-year old Julio Garcia lost to journeyman Danny Perez, who had fought just one, six-round bout in the last three years. But that's not the real story. Things like this happen, as Garcia proved before when he lost to Troy Browning, a guy who had fought just twice after EIGHT years out of the ring.

Maybe Garcia simply can't beat aged fighters that take long breaks. More likely, though, there's something deeper about Garcia that everyone involved with his career needs to look at. He never looked like he wanted to be in the ring last night. He has major power, but never displayed it, and was very content to eat punch after punch from Perez, whose sloppy, pop-less attacks would have probably gotten him wasted against a fighter that gave a damn about fighting.

Garcia should really think about whether or not he wants to fight, because if he doesn't, a dangerous fighter could hurt him.

6. That's peculiar advice

After the first round, trainer Nacho Beristain told Juan Manuel Marquez something to the effect of, "Give him the first couple of rounds, then you can take over." Marquez didn't roll over for Casamayor or anything, but I did score the first for Joel and the second a 10-10 draw. And Marquez did take over. Maybe Nacho is a mad genius.

7. Really, Golden Boy? REALLY?

Highlighting the pay-per-view festivities last night was a special celebrity host. You think, "Hey, whatever. Boxing? Vegas? Who's gonna host this? Let's find the right guy!"

A.C. Slater, Golden Boy? REALLY?

This is a gross miscalculation of the type of celebrities that boxing fans might want to see. The super dolled-up, fake-smiling Mario Lopez does not fall into that group. While talking to Paulie Malignaggi between fights, he called Malignaggi's May rematch with Lovemore N'dou a great fight, something even Paulie didn't agree with.

There's hype and salesmanship, and then there's just being dumb and terribly phony. Mario Lopez might consider himself a big boxing fan, but he's not the level of boxing fan that needs to be on TV talking about it, if last night is any evidence.

Maybe this is the machismo of the boxing fan talking, but I just don't want to see pretty boy Mario Lopez from Dancing with the Stars on my boxing broadcasts. He was atrocious.

8. More on the pay-per-view

I enjoyed the main event, but the pay-per-view was terrible, and not worth anywhere near $44.99. For anyone that ever wants to slam HBO or Showtime broadcasts in the future, I once again implore you to give a Top Rank or Golden Boy-produced event a try. The difference is night and day, like going from ESPN to your regional Fox Sports Net.

The camera men had awkward angles, which made the building look very strange. Again, Mario Lopez was there. The video blipped out on two occasions. They had several audio problems, particularly early on. The commentary was fine, though they did seem biased for Marquez in the main event and there just aren't many guys that can call a big fight like Jim Lampley or Steve Albert.

For nearly 50 dollars, boxing fans should be rewarded with a little bit more than a non-fight (Garcia-Perez), a gross mismatch (Ortiz-Arrieta) and an uneventful rematch no one wanted to see in the first place. When you've got the production values of HBO, you can get away with lackluster undercards and good main events. But when you don't, you need to deliver more action than Golden Boy did last night, because there's no shine being put on the turds.

9. Where does Tim Bradley go now?

Timothy Bradley won a dominant unanimous decision in what wound up being Showtime's main event and only fight of the night, retaining the WBC junior welterweight title against Edner Cherry.

So what next for Bradley? Hatton and Malignaggi are busy. Andreas Kotelnik will fight Dmitriy Salita next, it appears. At 25 years old and with a 23-0 record, Bradley could perhaps try to unify with fellow American and WBO titlist Kendall Holt, though Holt may face Ricardo Torres for a third time. Victor Ortiz is out there and knocking on the door of contention, too. Veteran puncher Randall Bailey is always around. Junior Witter would undoubtedly love a rematch.

Bradley's in a position sort of similar to that of Andre Berto. He's young and good, but matching him up isn't going to be easy. Despite the world title, he's still at that stage where the promoters are still going to want to protect him a little bit. Lucky for Bradley, there's no one at 140 that would overwhelm him. Let's not forget that Witter was the undisputed No. 2 in the division.

10. Nate Campbell: Quality Dude

Let's give Nate Campbell even more credit. Not only was he willing to fight Guzman despite the weight issue, but when the fight was called off, he still made himself available to the fight fans in Biloxi, offering to hang out in the lobby and chat, sign autographs, whatever. In an age where boxers don't much interact with the public, this three-body lightweight titlist is a man of the people. Good on ya, Nate. Hope you get a good fight soon, because we're all looking forward to seeing you in the ring again.

Juan Manuel Marquez became the new lightweight champion of the world, knocking out Joel Casamayor at 2:55 of the 11th round, making him the first man to ever knock he 37-year old Casamayor out.

It was a good tactical fight, as I expected it would be, and the counter-punching nature of both men didn't make the fight a bore at all. In fact, I was entertained throughout. All respect is due to Casamayor, who showed he can still fight at a high level against a great opponent. I had Joel trailing 96-95 at the time of the stoppage, which came on the second knockdown of the round. Marquez first floored Casamayor with a thunderous right hand, and with 20 seconds left in the round, he avoided a Casamayor attempt at a desperation clinch, forcing Casamayor to trade with him. Under a massive barrage of punches, Casamayor fell again, and referee Tony Weeks saw enough. Casamayor wasn't going to get up, anyway.

He's a hell of a fighter, but Juan Manuel Marquez proved tonight that he's a truly excellent fighter. If you are like me and thought Marquez squeezed out a tight win in March over Pacquiao, you could consider him the best fighter in the world right now. I'm not even trying to start a debate; that's just a fact. He's got some claim to having beat Pacquiao, and with this excellent win, can combine that claim with being the man pound-for-pound. I won't do it, because I didn't feel he was robbed in March, either. I'm just sayin'. Know what I'm sayin'?

On the dreadful undercard, Vernon Forrest dominated Sergio Mora in what was alleged to be the rematch of the year. I scored it 119-108 for Forrest, who won on scores of 119-108, 118-109 and 117-110. Mora never got untracked.

Victor Ortiz predictably knocked out Roberto Arrieta in the fifth round, and Danny Perez surprisingly and easily dominated Julio Garcia in the night's opener, winning by unanimous decision scores of 100-90, 99-91 and 97-93. I had it 98-92 for Perez, who sloppily but convincingly defeated a man that clearly needs to reconsider his choice of career. Garcia seemed entirely uninterested in fighting. He shouldn't have even been in the ring.

On Showtime, the makeshift main event was won by Timothy Bradley via wide decision over Edner Cherry, meaning Bradley retains his 140-pound title. Scores were 118-109, 119-109 and 117-110.

We will have much more tomorrow and over the next few days, so stick around for more analysis on Marquez's wonderfully finished win over Casamayor.

We'll go live at 9pm ET with round-by-round coverage and scoring of the entire pay-per-view card from Las Vegas, main evented by the lightweight championship fight between Joel Casamayor and Juan Manuel Marquez. Join us!

7:10pm ET Update: With it appearing as though Campbell-Guzman will be cancelled, this might be the only real option for the night. Nothing new has come down the news pipelines since about 4pm. We'll be going live with Casamayor-Marquez at 9, just as planned.

7:16pm ET Update: Campbell-Guzman is officially off, according to FightHype.com. No word on what Showtime will do with their card, but I'd guess they'll bump Bradley-Cherry into an awkward main event role and send the Velazquez-Rojas featherweight eliminator onto the open TV slot.

A reminder: we'll be here tonight at 9pm with live, round-by-round coverage of the Casamayor-Marquez pay-per-view from Las Vegas. If Comcast goes screwy (you may notice this is a constant concern of mine for pay-per-views), then we'll cover Campbell-Guzman and Bradley-Cherry instead. Either way, we'll be here talking boxing tonight.

How about some fight day quotes and final picks? Yeah, why not!

"Joel Casamayor is one of the best 135-pounders. I'm going to prove it to the people and I'm going to prove it to myself that I can do better things in higher divisions. And, obviously, if I get the victory in this fight I'm going to prove it. I'm going to keep proving that I'm good in any division." -- Juan Manuel Marquez (ESPN)

"Manny Pacquiao fought David Diaz. He was a champion, yes, but not a top fighter in the 135-pound division. But I'm going to prove it. I'm going to prove it to myself. I'm going to prove it to the people that I'm the best 135-pounder out there." -- Marquez

"I'm looking at as if I have no next opponent. I only got one and that's Marquez, because I know if we don't get [past] Marquez, there is no next fight. So, there's only Juan Manuel Marquez on my mind. I'm focused for him. After that, we can see. I leave it up to my promoters at Golden Boy and I keep letting them move me however they want to. But I'll tell you one thing, I'd like the chance at Pacquiao." -- Joel Casamayor

"It's going to be a great fight because Juan is a great fighter and everyone knows I'm a great fighter. And not only is Juan a fighter but he's also smart in the ring just like me. It's going to be a challenge, its going to be a great challenge." -- Casamayor (ESPN)

Time for picks. Who you got?

Casamayor v. Marquez: I've already gone on record as saying that I'm picking Casamayor via tight decision. One thing I didn't mention is the X-factor in Casamayor's game, which is that he's always willing to get dirty if he feels he has to. Marquez is a fiery fighter and might not respond to some of Casa's potential tactics very well. Still, I've given it more thought and I'm still favoring Casamayor to surprise a lot of people and push on to another big, probably hotly-debated points victory. Casamayor

Mora v. Forrest II: The news that Sergio Mora needed to weigh in twice to drop two pounds and make the 154-pound limit worries me, as I initially was picking him but now have to strongly consider what role his conditioning will play. If Mora loses this fight because he doesn't have enough gas to stay busy and neutralize Forrest's more well-rounded game (even at 37, Forrest has more tools and weapons than Sergio will ever have), it'll be yet another blunder in his career that will take money out of his pocket. I'm hoping this isn't a close Forrest decision, because then these two will probably hook up for a rubber match. But that's now exactly what I'm fearing the most. Forrest

Garcia v. Perez and Ortiz v. Arrieta: Both of these fights should be one-sided affairs, poorly suited for a card that costs the boxing consumer 45 bucks. Give me both of the favorites by knockout, but I won't be shocked if Danny Perez beats Julio Garcia, who slipped badly against Troy Browning. Garcia and Ortiz

Campbell v. Guzman: If you missed it, this is now a non-title fight, as Guzman has failed to make weight by three-and-a-half pounds. I don't think this will hurt Guzman since he didn't attempt to cut down to 135; rather, it just makes him stronger. I already favored him to outbox Campbell down the stretch, and now I just think it's more likely. Guzman

Bradley v. Cherry: The last time we saw Edner Cherry take on a top-ranked 140-pounder, he was shut out by Paulie Malignaggi. The last time we saw Timothy Bradley, he stunned Junior Witter on the ex-titleholder's turf. Bradley is now the defending WBC junior welterweight titlist, and this is his first defense. Cherry is a very game fighter and his record is a bit misleading, as he's better than his W-L tally. But he's also a natural 135-pounder who's taking this fight because it's a great opportunity for his career. I like Cherry, but Bradley should rout him. Bradley

Joan Guzman failed to make weight for tonight's fight against Nate Campbell, meaning that the bout will not be for any of Campbell's three lightweight titles. Guzman was a full 3 1/2 pounds over the 135-pound limit. It's surprising given how much he's talked about his conditioning during training camp, and also considering that this is his first time jumping up to 135.

It also takes a lot of zeal out of the fight, and Campbell should be given credit for going forward at a disadvantage. It's the exact weight differential that got Diego Corrales blown up by Jose Luis Castillo in their second fight, when Castillo failed to make weight and Corrales fought him anyway.

The other Saturday night card had its own issues, with WBC junior middleweight titlist Sergio Mora initially failing to make weight, tipping the scales at 156 pounds, two over the division's limit. A second try got him down to 154, though, and the rematch with Vernon Forrest will go on for the title as scheduled. It'll be interesting to see if this time, Mora is the one who struggles with fatigue, as Forrest did in their first fight.

No worries about the Golden Boy main event, though. Both Joel Casamayor and Juan Manuel Marquez (pictured above) weighed in at 135 pounds. They also got into a shouting match, started by the always-outspoken Casamayor.

Saturday night's pay-per-view main event between currently borderline Hall of Fame potentials Joel Casamayor and Juan Manuel Marquez is an intriguing one. Maybe not $44.99 worth of intriguing for most of you (and I don't blame you, either), but it's interesting.

Both men are still tough, skilled, cerebral and sometimes brilliant fighters. They're also guys that leave themselves open a lot these days, either because they're trying to make good fights in their twilight years, or simply because these are, after all, their twilight years, and reflexes are getting a little slower.

For the Cuban Casamayor, a win over Marquez would seal his HoF destiny for me, and I think even with a loss I'd be inclined to vote for him. He was an excellent amateur, winning gold at the 1989 Junior World Championships and the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona. He's had a brilliant professional career, as inconsistent as he's been at times. If he beats Marquez, I think he's a no-brainer. But that's just me.

As for Marquez, beating Casamayor would give him the legitimate championship at 135 (like it or not, Casa's the champ), meaning he'd be a three-division world titleholder in his career. But outside of the disputed win over Barrera -- which called badly for a rematch that never happened -- he's still yet to notch a career-defining victory. He's beaten lots of good and talented fighters, and you could argue that he has beaten Manny Pacquiao twice, even though his record shows him at 0-1-1 against Manny.

Both of these guys have a lot to lose on Saturday night. A Marquez win could send Casamayor into retirement. He's 37 years old, after all. A Casamayor win could all but eliminate any shot Marquez has at landing a third fight with Pacquiao in the future. And either man winning could give them that fight with Pacquiao down the line, which would be big money. For now, it looks like the winner will likely take on fellow Golden Boy lightweight Juan Diaz.

So how's this one shake out? Let's try to figure it out.

Power

Casamayor has a 61% knockout rate (21 KOs in 36 wins), and Marquez is at 73% (35/48). Still, the difference in their rates is thanks to a lot more creampuffs on Marquez's dossier than can be found on Casamayor's sheet. Joel was fighting for an interim world title at 17-0; it took Marquez 30 fights before he ever challenged for a recognized world title.

Southpaw Casamayor knocked out Michael Katsidis in March, of course, while Marquez last scored a knockout win against a game but very overmatched Jimrex Jaca in 2006.

Since 2003, Casamayor is 8-2-1 with knockouts of Katsidis, Lamont Pearson, Antonio Ramirez and Diego Corrales, though the Corrales stoppage was due to cuts inside of Chico's mouth.

Since 2003, Marquez is 9-2-1 with knockouts of Jaca, Terdsak Jandaeng, Marcos Licona and Manuel Medina. Since beating Jaca down, he's failed to stop Marco Antonio Barrera, Rocky Juarez or Manny Pacquiao -- no shame in any of those, those are very tough guys with good beards.

What's the call here? The last five years haven't shown us any real difference in the knockout power of these guys, with Casamayor's stoppage of Michael Katsidis the best of the knockout wins between the two. And Katsidis fought that night with reckless abandon, the real knockout punch coming on a left hand he never saw.

Since I think there's no real way to say which guy has more pop, this now comes down to which man is more likely to score a knockout win. Personally, I think we'll hear the judges' scorecards after 12 rounds, but if anyone scores the KO, I'd bet on Casamayor. His punches aren't as straightforward, he's shifty, he's harder to hit, and he's never been knocked out. Marquez has also never been knocked out, but he's been thumped in both fights by Manny Pacquiao, also a lefty that comes in at awkward angles frequently. I figure the man more likely to be caught totally off-guard is Juan Manuel Marquez.

Advantage: Casamayor, ever so slightly

Speed

Marquez has never been known for lightning-fast combination punching or anything, but he puts some good stuff together. Casamayor's hand speed was at one time outstanding, though he has slowed a bit as he's gotten older, as everyone does.

Against Katsidis, though, Casamayor looked reborn following his atrocious November 2007 decision gift against Jose Armando Santa Cruz, a fight that I scored 10-2 for Santa Cruz, and that's about as close as anyone besides the three ringside judges had it. In March, Casamayor had some of the old slip-and-slide working for him, popping a tight, possibly nervous Katsidis at will in the early rounds, and then catching him with that crucial and brutal left in the 10th round that began the end of the Aussie slugger.

Marquez looked somewhat slow in March against Pacquiao, even though I had him as a one-point winner. It was more that he looked a little bit slow in comparison to the fast, powerful Pacquiao, who combines speed and sock like nobody else in boxing right now. Still, Juan Manuel is at his best counter-punching, not leading off. And again, that could be said for Casamayor, too -- but Joel fared well taking the initiative against Katsidis, and he could do the same if he presses for it against Marquez.

Advantage: Casamayor

Defense

Yet another area where these men, when on their game, come out similar in their differences. Casamayor uses his elusiveness and slithering style to avoid punches, while Marquez simply does a good job with the fundamentals of thwarting his opponent's attack.

Where I again have to like Casamayor just a bit more than I do Marquez is the fact that Joel, when he doesn't get cocky, can be a defensive genius. Marquez has notably gotten more aggressive as he's aged, which is generally a reverse, and we've seen him whacked down by Pacquiao (three times in the first fight, once in the second) and hurt by Barrera in their fight, knocked down legitimately, which wasn't called. Though Katsidis knocked Casamayor clear out of the ring at one poiint and was hurting him with good blows for a few rounds, it felt like it was more of a case of Casa getting lax and taking his foot off the gas, so to speak. He let himself get overly confident, feeling he could dominate and even embarrass Katsidis. Turned out he couldn't without keeping himself 100% focused.

I doubt we'll see him take any silly risks against Marquez the way he did Katsidis, because Casamayor no doubt has vast respect for his opponent. Casamayor might try to fight aggressively at points, but I doubt he'll get dumb. His slick style of dodging punches is not only effective defensively, but gives him new angles to strike offensively, too.

Advantage: Casamayor

Chin

Both of these guys can take a shot and continue on, but I don't think this one is too close. Again, neither man has ever gone down for the count, and Marquez tends to fall more often in recent years, but he always comes back from it, too. If there are any questions about Marquez's toughness and whiskers, go back and look at the first round against Pacquiao in their first encounter. I think "chin" means more than simply being able to take shots and stay standing. There's a lot to be said for the ability to take shots, drop, and come back strong. Both guys can do it -- Marquez does it better than almost everyone in the sport.

Advantage: Marquez

Momentum

I really do think momentum coming into a fight can be a key factor. We've seen fighters lose their way and go into career tailspins many times. Both of these guys have taken their lumps -- folks questioned Casamayor rightly after the debacle against Santa Cruz, and people wondered pre-Barrera whether Marquez could ever win the big one.

We now know that Marquez is truly among the best the sport has to offer, and Casamayor has been resilient his entire career. When he lost to Freitas, he came back and won four straight, including victories against Campbell and Corrales. When he lost to Corrales in the rematch, his stock dropped when that loss was added up with a close loss to Jose Luis Castillo and a draw against Kid Diamond. Since then, he's won five in a row (including a rubber match victory over Corrales), and with the decisive win over Katsidis, he's as hot as he's been since he beat Corrales four years ago.

Marquez is working on a different kind of momentum. He truly believes he beat Manny Pacquiao in March. Had the scores gone his way that night, we most likely would be calling Juan Manuel Marquez the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing right now, and he'd also probably be gearing up for a third fight with Manny. That's a fight he wants. He knows that he has to beat Casamayor to have a shot at facing Manny next year.

I think Marquez is coming in more motivated, which is not to say Casa is coming in light at all. He has emerged past just the diehards and is now known globally by all boxing fans as one of the best in the world.

Advantage: Marquez, slightly

Trainers

Roger Bloodworth, chief second for Joel Casamayor, is a very good trainer. He's worked with very good fighters over the years, has been re-hired by Jeff Lacy to kickstart a stalled career, and knows Casamayor inside and out.

But as good as Bloodworth is, Marquez trainer Nacho Beristain is a genius strategist and corner man. Beristain is among the absolute best trainers in the sport. He coaches both of the excellent Marquez brothers, and we know how successful that's been in the ring, if not always when it comes to business decisions or politics. There's a reason that Oscar de la Hoya is looking to Beristain, reportedly, to train him for his December fight with Manny Pacquiao, and it's not just because Beristain has been ringside against Pacquiao on more than one occasion. He's outstanding.

Advantage: Marquez/Beristain

Big Fight Experience

Casamayor has fought everyone that would fight him. Corrales three times, Castillo, Freitas, Campbell, Katsidis, et cetera. He never fought Floyd Mayweather, Jr., because Floyd didn't want to fight Casamayor. That, in my opinion, is one of the great missed matchups of the generation.

Marquez has been in the ring with Pacquiao on two occasions, Barrera, Chris John, Freddie Norwood in his heyday, and Robbie Peden, among others. Both guys have been on the big stage before, and the bright lights and pressure that come with main eventing won't affect them in the slightest. These are veterans, bona fide professionals that know the game from top to bottom.

Advantage: Push

Intangibles

I'm the kind of cat that likes to work off of facts. I'm a fan of every sport, and while I think there can be such a thing as "clutch," I don't think you can do a whole lot to prove it. I like to deal in facts. I like to be able to point at something as real evidence, as proof.

But combat sports do contain a lot of intangibles. How did training go? Is the fighter's mind elsewhere for any reason? Is the matchup simply not a good one?

Both of these guys are counter-punchers. BLH user Brickhaus pointed out in a comment on an earlier post that the last time each man fought natural counter-punchers, bad things happened. Santa Cruz dominated Casamayor, and John won a disputed decision over Marquez. Neither fight was very exciting.

Still, I can't be convinced that this will be a problem, though it certainly could be. Obviously, someone's going to have to take the leading role in the action. If I had to bet, it'll be Marquez, who has shown more willingness to mix it up of late. Casamayor, though, carries a genuine mean streak that can turn him into a lethal fighter.

With the asterisk meaning they're both 100% and focused, I think Casamayor presents far more stylistic problems for Marquez than Marquez does Casamayor. He's a southpaw, he's extremely awkward, he's got power, he's got speed, he's hard to hit, and he can be absolutely frustrating for his opponent, which can cause even more problems. There's no trickery to Marquez; there is a lot to Casamayor.

Advantage: Casamayor

That gives us a tally of 4-3-1 in favor of Casamayor, and I think that despite considering Marquez a much better pound-for-pound fighter than I do Joel these days, I'm leaning toward favoring Casamayor just a little bit.

It's the matchup. It's the style problem. It's Casamayor being Casamayor, a hell of a fighter and a very unique one at that. Marquez is no-nonsense, and even if he does lose, will still be an excellent fighter at the end of the day.

But I wouldn't bet a dime on this fight. It's got the potential to be outstanding -- both of these men competed in fights that I think are top three for the year back in March. It could also be a stink bomb if both come out tentative, waiting for the other guy to spark first.

We'll be here with round-by-round coverage and scoring for all y'all that don't want to spend 45 clams on this card. The fact that I'm a fan of both guys got the better of me in the end. Despite some reservations, and hating that pricetag, I'm pretty excited for this fight.

Gotta love that Pacino-McConaughey team, huh? Alright, alright, alright. Hoo-ah! Not a great movie. Don't go out of your way. Shocking, I know.

All lines are taken from Bodog, and this is not meant to encourage gambling. That's my disclaimer, because I don't want to hear about it if you lose your Tercel.

Joel Casamayor (Ring Lightweight Champion) v. Juan Manuel Marquez -- HBO PPV

Marquez -325, Casamayor +250

This is one of those fights I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. The 37-year old Casamayor is inconsistent but undeniably skilled, and the 35-year old Marquez is moving up to 135 pounds for the first time. I'm having a hell of a time even picking a winner without putting money on it -- I wouldn't bet on this fight with your money. (OK, yes I would.)

Betting 325 bones on Juan Manuel to win back 100 seems silly to me, because even if he maintains his power, stamina, and skill in another division's jump, Casamayor is a hell of a great fighter on his best nights. He fought off the determined, powerful, younger Michael Katsidis in March in an epic brawl, and Marquez hasn't been seen since that same month, when he lost a hotly-disputed decision to pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao.

Now, pound-for-pound, I'll take Marquez over Casamayor any day. But Joel is a guy some started counting out five years ago. He's not only hung on, but here he is main eventing a pay-per-view event at the MGM Grand. Both fighters are due to hit the wall sometime, I think, and the chance that it could come for either man this weekend is a really big risk.

Sergio Mora (WBC Junior Middleweight Titleholder) v. Vernon Forrest [Rematch] -- HBO PPV

Mora -105, Forrest -125

A fight where the Bodog book refuses to put up an underdog. Mora upset Forrest in June to capture his title, and now "The Viper" is looking for revenge, this time sans the threats of Mora leaving on a stretcher. Good idea.

The 27-year old Mora has 10 years of youth on his side against Forrest, who came out flat, fatigued fairly easily, and looked like he didn't have any breath left by the 10th round of their first encounter. This time, Vernon is saying he's had a better camp, but it's not like he'd be spreading word that he isn't.

Mora has technical ability, but his lack of KO power is always going to be a concern. Is he good enough to beat a more well-rounded, but older, fighter once again? Is Vernon really capable of going 12 rounds with a guy as shifty and elusive and awkard as Sergio? That's the bet, man.

Nate Campbell (WBA/IBF/WBO Lightweight Titleholder) v. Joan Guzman -- Showtime

Guzman -215, Campbell +175

And another one that's too tough for me to mess with. Hey, maybe I'm gutless, or maybe I'm stingy, or maybe I'm poor, or maybe these fights are all just tough to call. Guzman's natural abilities are awesome, but Campbell's toughness, resiliency and power can't be overlooked.

Guzman hasn't fought in ten months, since he dominated (crowd-pleasing or not) Humberto Soto over 12 rounds. This is Guzman's step up to lightweight, as he found no one at 130 willing to fight. Guzman and Campbell have had a rather nasty back-and-forth leading up to this fight, and given Campbell's rugged, aggressive nature, he might come out for blood. Guzman, no matter what he says, probably isn't wired that way.

This is a marvelous option for those uninterested in paying $44.99 for the pay-per-view card this weekend, and another toss-up money fight.

Got any favorites? Betting on anything this weekend?

The September 13 head-to-head between Showtime Championship Boxing and HBO pay-per-view is a pretty legitimate question. You have to ask yourself, "Do I want to pay 40-50 bucks to see Joel Casamayor and Juan Manuel Marquez, or does Nate Campbell-Joan Guzman stack up just as well?"

The HBO undercard is offering a rematch between 154-pound titleholder Sergio Mora and Vernon Forrest, while Showtime is offering a 140-pound title bout between Timothy Bradley and Edner Cherry.

The Showtime card also has finally landed a home, at the Beau Rivage Casino in Biloxi, Miss.

What pains me is that I think I'll wind up paying the money for the Casamayor-Marquez card, because I think that main event could be fantastic, and I have the gut feeling that Guzman is going to box circles around Campbell, who put in a career-best performance and was aided by a horrible opposing cutman when he beat Juan Diaz in March. The difference between Diaz and Guzman is huge; Campbell was able to stand and trade with the volume-punching Diaz, but Guzman won't let him do that. As far as pure boxers go, Joan is among the best in the business.

Mora-Forrest II is a rematch of a bad fight, while Bradley-Cherry is just not that interesting. I like Edner Cherry, but I don't think Bradley will have a whole lot of trouble with him. Cherry's a tough guy and a good fighter, but Bradley's got natural ability that just dwarfs Edner's. The Malignaggi-Cherry fight is still too fresh in my mind.

Casa-JMM seems like the type of fight that I'll be sorry if I miss, a fight that could easily be a war, easily be a great showcase of two tremendous pure boxers, and almost certainly won't be bad. Marquez's aggressive nature the last few years will press Casamayor into action. Plus, Joel is fighting for more paydays now. If he beats Marquez, there's an outside shot he could land a fight with Pacquiao down the line, or step up and fight Hatton or something of that nature. A loss really hurts his marketability.

The best 135-pound fight on the docket, though, is the Juan Diaz-Michael Katsidis scrap planned for September 6 on Boxing After Dark.

Each one of Katsidis' last three fights (Earl, Amonsot, Casamayor) have been Fight of the Year contenders. In fact, I'd put Casamayor-Katsidis over the Cotto-Margarito fight in my race (right now the top four are Vazquez-Marquez III, Marquez-Pacquiao II, Casamayor-Katsidis and Cotto-Margarito).

This fight was rumored last year, was rumored for February/March of this year, and now after both men have suffered their first career losses, they'll tangle in Diaz's hometown of Houston. I don't think the home field advantage will help Juan much because I don't think Katsidis is the type of fighter to care where he's at. He could fight Diaz in Juan's parents' basement and I think it'd all look pretty much the same as it would anywhere else on the planet. Katsidis is going to come forward and try to knock Diaz out.

And Diaz, lest we forget, is a tremendous pressure fighter that will fire back in spades. That fight will be a war. It's one of those bouts where there's just no way it's going to be bad. I think the Fight of the Year race will get a new horse on September 6.

Manny Pacquiao and team want a bigger set of fines for an pound over the 147-pound limit being discussed for their potential fight with Oscar de la Hoya, which may be another snag in the ongoing and increasingly wacky search to land Oscar an opponent for December 6.

It's being said that the Filipino superstar and his handlers want Oscar fined $1 million per pound over 147 should he come in overweight for the fight. This is because, simply, the Pacquiao force is concerned that de la Hoya cannot make 147 pounds anymore. I wonder myself, but it doesn't much concern me. He looked fit at 150 against Forbes, and while three pounds are bigger than they sound in boxing, I don't think it'd be a major hassle for him.

The other real concern for Pacquiao is that Freddie Roach has stated they would probably try to weigh in in the low-140s for the fight -- plus, if Oscar came in overweight, they'd be fools to go on with the fight, no matter how much money was on the line. So in essence, they're counting themselves in for a payday if Oscar should come up short (well, wide), because there are a lot of fights Manny could make for November or December.

Business, man.

And yes, I used a photo of Oscar at his fattest on purpose.

There has been no news on the return of Marco Antonio Barrera, but I was thinking about it earlier today, and I just can't decide what to feel about it.

He's not old and he hasn't shown that he's TOO badly beaten up. He was still in outstanding form last year against Marquez, though he turtled and didn't do a whole lot against Pacquiao, seemingly content to survive 12 rounds and leave it at that.

There was a rumor a while back, you probably recall, that he would return to face Mzonke Fana, who at the time was the IBF's 130-pound titleholder. He lost his strap to Cassius Baloyi in April via majority decision. Barrera has already beaten Fana, knocking him out in the second round back in 2005.

I've seen some fans suggest that he match up with old rival Erik Morales for a fourth time, but to me, that seems pretty sadistic, like you're essentially saying, "You know what I'd like to see? Erik Morales get hurt." Unlike Barrera, Morales has shown definite signs of wear and tear on his body, and reported after his final bout against David Diaz that he heard a ringing in his ears when he was hit in the head. Promoter Bob Arum is often full of crap, but when he says that if Morales tries to fight again he'll have nothing to do with it, I think you can feel sincerity and genuine concern.

The other talked-about fighter has been 122-pound champion Israel Vazquez, with the two Mexican fighters perhaps splitting the difference and squaring off at featherweight. I'm sure one of the major sanctioning bodies would find it in their hearts to strip a titleholder or declare an interim strap up for grabs in a Barrera-Vazquez bout.

Dan Rafael says Vazquez is taking the rest of 2009 off to fully recover, which is a smart move.

One thing is certain: should Barrera return as he apparently seriously intends to do, he will not be fighting under Golden Boy's banner, and that seems just wrong in some ways. He was one of their flagship fighters, along with Oscar, Mosley and Hopkins, and he had the distinction of being the one of their "Big Four" that wasn't really associated with de la Hoya as a star.

Personally, if Barrera is up for it, I'd still love to see a rematch with Juan Manuel Marquez, but that would involve working with Golden Boy, so count it out. Most likely Barrera will return against a mid-level or worse opponent, and try to move his way back up the ladder.

We'll see.

I read somewhere that I now can't find that Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr., would be rematching Matt Vanda sometime this final quarter. Vanda put a hell of a scare into JC Junior in a damn good fight down in Mexico, nearly knocking the young, overheralded name out. You'd think first, perhaps, that a rematch would go toward the younger, fresher Chavez, like maybe Vanda made a final last great stand in the first fight. But I think it's legitimately very dangerous for Chavez, who I felt was exposed by the tough Vanda, whose name means nothing. The fact of the matter is that at some point, Arum and Top Rank are going to hit a wall with Chavez. He's just not that good, even with the strides he's made the last couple of years.

I'm pretty anxious to see what PPV numbers Casamayor-Marquez, Pavlik-Hopkins and Calzaghe-Jones pull in, because I don't expect great stuff in any of the fights, particularly Casamayor-Marquez. I understand pay-per-view and accept it as being what it is, but it's hard to lure in fans when you make being one an exclusive club, isn't it?

Sultan Ibragimov says he'll be back. Boy, I can't wait.

So far, so good for Vitali Klitschko not being injured. I still refuse to put that fight with Sam Peter on our schedule until the official weigh-in comes and goes with no shenanigans.

You may have heard that outspoken nitwit Anthony Mundine won a fight on July 30 against Crazy Kim. Latest word is he thinks that will give him a chance to chase Kelly Pavlik or Winky Wright at middleweight. Mundine gave up a super middleweight title so he could not get manhandled by Mikkel Kessler again, and now he thinks that he should get a fight with Pavlik or Wright. I guess I can't really see what Winky's doing that's any better, but Pavlik? That's some feverish dream world stuff, "Choc."

Has any fighter in recent memory done less with a star-making, highly-publicized win than Sakio Bika? Maybe he could fight Allan Green, if Bika's handlers could come up with the latest and greatest ridiculous figure that Green wants in order to take to the ring again.

With Vazquez taking the rest of the year off, I can't help but wonder what's up with Rafael Marquez. I'm hoping he decides to join his rival on the sidelines for the remainder of '08. Then maybe we can see them clash again in the first quarter of 2009. There's just no bigger or better fight for either man.

David Haye still has no opponent for his November 15 heavyweight "debut," though names are constantly being thrown around. Haye will be joined in the heavyweight ranks by faded ex-cruiser champion O'Neil Bell, who similarly claims that the division is a mess and needs a savior. Compared to the in-prime Haye, Bell's claims are akin to generic brand Doritos when the real thing is right in front of you for the taking.

Speaking of heavyweights, money is the big issue in the long-rumored showdown between sluggers Chris Arreola and David Tua. I kind of wish everyone would just move on. This fight is not going to happen. A win would push the exciting, 35-year old Tua right back into title contention, but he's been fighting journeymen since drawing Hasim Rahman in 2003 and taking two years off. Knocking out Cerrone Fox and Saul Montana is one thing; fighting a credible young slugger is another. He and promoter Cedric Kushner both know that, and want every cent they can squeeze. I can't blame then, and frankly I hope they're successful. For as long as it lasts, it could be a hell of a fight.

Frank Warren is all over the news. First up, he's speaking his mind on the Hatton family-Billy Graham rift that finally exploded, saying this was a long time coming, essentially. Also, Frank is suing Joe Calzaghe for £1 million, which has so "disgusted and saddened" the Welsh fighter that he's counter-suing. Oh, those Brits! (And Welshmen!)