Right now, we're in somewhat of a historical lull of great Mexican fighters.  Juan Manuel Marquez is still close to the top of his game, but he's 36 and fighting a few weight classes over his best weight, even now.  Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales should be on their way out, if they aren't already.  Antonio Margarito looks like he may have been somewhat of a mirage, and even if he wasn't, his legacy is tainted and he's on suspension for quite a while longer.  Even Rafael Marquez and Israel Vasquez, who never quite made it to star level, seem to be on the way out.  Gary Shaw was telling anyone who would listen that Perro Angulo was next, but the step he took was a step too large, and it's somewhat back to the drawing boards for him.  So who could actually be the next Mexican star?  I'm not going to purport to go into everyone (I couldn't even if I wanted to), but here are a few candidates that might be a part of the next generation of Mexican stars (in no particular order).

Urbano Antillon - 26-0, 26 years old, lightweight

Antillon finally has his (sort of) title shot coming up, having been gifted an interim title fight against Miguel Acosta.  The Bobfather has been building up Antillon for a while, but he does have some star qualities.  He likes to choke off his opponent, cutting off the ring and launching big shots and combos.  He does have true one punch knockout power, which is rare for a lightweight.  Rumor has it that he's the only guy in Manny Pacquiao's last training camp to collect Freddie Roach's famous $1,000 sparring knockdown bonus.   He doesn't have the world's greatest defense, and he probably won't be a pound for pound fighter, but he has star potential anyway, just because of the way he fights.

Marvin Quintero - 16-1, 22 years old, super featherweight

Quintero is fighting under Gary Shaw's banner now, which means you can expect to see a lot of him on Showtime.   Pros: he's exciting, he's young, he has some pop, he comes forward with a high workrate in a brawler fashion, he moves inside and outside decently, and he fights in a weight class where he could get onto US TV.  Cons: he's on the slow side, he tends to throw arm punches, and he has massive defensive holes.  Now that he's twice made it onto English-language US TV, I suspect he'll be taken along a little more slowly, as he really has a lot to learn before he can become an elite level fighter, but the groundwork is there if he's up to the task.  He struggled at times against Wes Ferguson, but Ferguson is a tricky fighter, and he decimated the same Nick Casal who went 10 rounds with Antonio DeMarco. (Horrible Mexican music warning on the video)

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - 39-0-1, 23 years old, light middleweight

Nah, just kidding.  He'll live off his dad's name for a while, but he seems to be a slow learner, and he doesn't seem to have great assets outside of his size and his power.  That said, he does have as good of a resume as most of the guys on this list, and if anyone knows how to turn a marginal prospect into a star, it's Bob Arum.

Antonio DeMarco - 21-1-1, 23 years old, lightweight

DeMarco has a bit more of an uphill battle to becoming a star than most of the other guys on this list, simply because he's not necessarily an inside brawler.  He is a pretty well-rounded fighter, who can fight inside and outside, and can fight off the back foot.  His win over Kid Diamond is probably the most impressive win out of anyone on this list.  On the other hand, he too doesn't seem to have any one superior physical talent, and he's had a tendency to be too reluctant to throw punches at times.  DeMarco will be fighting Agnes Adjaho on the Darchinyan-Agbeko undercard on Showtime on July 11.

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez - 27-0-1, 18 years old, welterweight

Alvarez is one of those guys I watch and don't think he's anything that special, but they keep matching him up with tougher and tougher opposition, and he keeps blowing guys out.  He may very well be the most technically solid out of this bunch, save Mares, which is impressive considering he's only 18 years old with no amateur experience.  He puts punches together well, and he's a lot harder to hit than he looks. At only 18 years old, he can still get a lot better, and even if he doesn't have blinding speed, it seems like he's developing the power to compensate, and he's already excellent at cutting off the ring.  Even if he doesn't end up a star, he could end up being the best red-headed boxer in recent memory.  Keep in mind that Ricardo Torres just took 10 rounds to do in his opponent in the clip below.

Abner Mares - 18-0, 23 years old, bantamweight

There's about as much hype behind Mares as any other Mexican boxer at the moment.  He's one of Golden Boy's first attempts to bring up a fighter from scratch, and so far they seem to be doing a fine job, even though Nacho Beristain recently dumped him as a trainer.  Mares fought in the Olympics for Mexico, although that doesn't mean as much in a country where most fighters don't have extensive amateur careers.  Mares is a solid boxer who I think of as a little Andre Ward - good at everything, not great at anything, but has good enough technical prowess to overcome.  However, he'll have a tougher time becoming a star stateside, simply because he's from a lower weight class and he's not as much of a brawler as most of the other fighters on this list.

Others for consideration: Juan Carlos Salgado (20-0-1, 24 years old, super featherweight); Jesus Soto-Karass (23-3-3, 26 years old, welterweight); Juan Carlos Burgos (22-0, 21 years old, featherweight); Hernan "Tyson" Marquez (24-0, Flyweight); Humberto Mauro Gutierrez (25-1-1, 20 years old, lightweight); Alfredo "El Perro" Angulo (15-1, 26 years old, light middleweight)

VS.

Danny Jacobs and Fernando Guerrero are two young prospects who have been getting a lot of recent face time on ESPN and major undercards.  Jacobs, 22, was a three-time national Golden Gloves champion who was signed by Golden Boy as an amateur.  Guererro, 22, also had a decorated amateur career of 160 fights, and has been packing 5,000 person houses in his hometown of Salisbury, Maryland despite just starting out his career.  Both have started their careers at a frantic pace, each averaging about a fight a month early in their careers.  Both will likely campaign as middleweights once they reach the elite level, although Jacobs has been floating just above the middleweight limit in most of his fights, and Guerrero has the potential to fight at 154, which looks like it might be more stacked in the coming years than middleweight.

Note - This is NOT a hypothetical analysis of how I think an actual fight between Danny Jacobs and Fernando Guerrero would turn out.  This is also not necessarily a comparison of where the two fighters are at this moment in time.  Instead, I'm taking a page out of John Sickels's book and comparing where I think the two are as prospects, and based on what tools, skills and attributes they have now, trying to project where their careers might be heading, and where they might stumble into roadblocks in the future. 

For a discussion of the factors I'm looking at, please go here - discussion of tools, skills and attributes.

Handspeed - Jacobs has very fast hands, but when he throws his quick punches, he doesn't follow through that well, so he tends to get more power into it when he throws slightly slower punches.  This is probably a mechanical issue that can be fixed by a good trainer.  You don't want someone with good power to turn into a slappy fighter just to show off their quickness.  Also, he doesn't really snap his jab at this point, which is something he can probably be taught.  When he gets on a roll with a combo, his hands can get very fast, but that might mean he's going on autopilot.  Good handspeed, but doesn't utilize it properly.  Guererro also has good handspeed.  His fastest punches aren't as quick as Jacobs, but he doesn't vary the consistency of his speed, and he gets his body behind even his quick punches.  Jacobs - B+, Guerrero, B, Slight Advantage: Jacobs

Chin - Jacobs has yet to be knocked down, while Guerrero's been down once, although it was more of a footwork issue than a chin issue in my estimation.  Neither one has been tested by a particularly big puncher yet.  To the best of my knowledge, neither one was particularly chinny as an amateur, with Jacobs going down only once in his amateur career (by Shawn Porter, another recent ESPN staple) and Guererro going down only a few times (twice by Porter as well, in the Olympic trials).  So we know that neither one has an iron chin, but we also know that neither one has any massive red flags.  Jacobs - Inconclusive, Guerrero - Inconclusive, Probable Advantage: Jacobs

Relfexes - Both have sneaky quick reflexes.  No exaggerated movement in trying to avoid blows, but one second they're there, and by the time the punch gets to their heads, they're both just out of the way.  Neither one is Roy Jones, but neither one will be hurt here either.  Jacobs - B, Guererro - B, Advantage: Push

Power - Both have good power.  Jacobs has 13 KOs in 14 fights, Guererro has 11 KOs in 13 fights, and most of them for both are of the actual knockdown variety.  A lot of it has come from overwhelming their opponents rather than concussing them with a single punch or combo.  They do have one common opponent, Tyrone Watson.  He went the distance against Guererro and was knocked out in the first by Jacobs, but that doesn't mean too much simply because the Jacobs fight was literally less than two weeks after the Guererro fight.  After getting busted up pretty badly by Guererro, one would expect Jacobs to be able to take him out quickly, since he was almost certainly still hurting from the previous fight.  Anyway, Jacobs seems to have more wiry and quick power, almost like a Kelly Pavlik, while Guererro needs to get his weight into a punch to give it a lot of power.  Slight edge to Jacobs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them knocking a lot of guys out in the future.  Jacobs, A-, Guererro, B+, Slight Advantage: Jacobs

Size - Jacobs has good size for a middleweight, at 6'1".  However, his reach is a hair below average for his height, and he may run into some reach problems down the line.  Also, he probably doesn't have the build to bulk up to much more than super middleweight.  Guererro would be quite small for a middleweight, at 5'9".  Guerrero doesn't have an official reach listed, but his arms don't seem particularly long, although his shoulders are extremely broad for a boxer.  He's really built more like a safety than a boxer.  With his build, he could probably boil down all the way to 147, if he wanted to, but probably will never be able to fight above 168 either.  Jacobs - B-, Guererro - C, Advantage: Jacobs

Hand - Jacobs is orthodox.  Guererro is southpaw.  Advantage: Guererro

Skills and attributes come after the jump.

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The careers of Andre Ward and Andre Dirrell will probably always be intrinsically linked.  They both won medals with the 2004 US Olympic team.  They're both named Andre.  They both fight at super middleweight.  The both turned pro within a month of each other.  They were born less than a year apart from each other.  They've both been moved along fairly slowly for high pedigree prospects.  So it only makes sense to compare what the two of them are as boxers.

Note - This is NOT a hypothetical analysis of how I think an actual fight between Andre Ward and Andre Dirrell would turn out.  This is also not necessarily a comparison of where the two fighters are at this moment in time.  Instead, I'm taking a page out of John Sickels's book and comparing where I think the two are as prospects, and based on what tools, skills and attributes they have now, trying to project where their careers might be heading, and where they might stumble into roadblocks in the future. 

For a discussion of the factors I'm looking at, please go here - discussion of tools, skills and attributes.

Handspeed - Ward doesn't have great handspeed, probably only slightly above average for a super middleweight.  He does compensate for this by the fact that he throws his punches extremely straight, and thus he's often able to beat his opponent to the punch.  Also, he's been matched against slow punchers to hide this deficiency.  Dirrell has pretty close to elite handspeed for a super middleweight.  It's not that he throws shoeshine flurries like Calzaghe or Bradley, but he's able to throw extremely quick hooking punches that actually have a lot of weight behind them.  He's just one of those guys who's very quick without necessarily looking quick, because he doesn't use his quickness just for the sake of being flashy.  Ward - C+, Dirrell - B+, Advantage: Dirrell

Chin -It's likely that neither guy has the best chin in the world.  I don't believe either guy has been down as a pro, but I've seen Ward buzzed a couple of times, and he has yet to face any truly big punchers.  Dirrell has faced at least two big punchers in Curtis Stevens and Victor Oganov.  Dirrell literally ran from Stevens that entire fight, which led me to believe that he had some issues with his chin, or else he could have just outboxed the slow, limited and stocky Stevens on the outside.  However, he took a few shots square on the jaw against Oganov and didn't seem phased.  I suspect that both of these guys could have problems with their chin later on.  Ward's upcoming fight against Edison Miranda might help answer some of the questions about his beard.  Ward - C+, Dirrell - C+, Advantage: Inconclusive, pending further testing of chins, but likely an advantage for Dirrell

Relfexes -Ward doesn't have great reflexes. Dirrell is called the "Matrix" because of his ridiculous reflexes (although they're not quite as absurd as he'd like us to believe).  There's a major difference here, but Ward does a lot of things that help him compensate for a lack of reflexes (tight guard, compact punching, small steps with feet always moving), while Dirrell has a lot of bad habits that prevent him from using his reflexes to the best of his abilities (keeping his head still, taking huge steps, holding his head forward).  Ward - C, Dirrell, B+, Advantage: Dirrell

Power - Neither guy has great one punch power, but both guys accumulate well.  Both are good at getting their weight behind their punches, although Ward does throw a lot of pitty patty jabs just to measure his opponent.  Through 18 fights, Ward has 12 KOs, Dirrell has 13 KOs, though many of those KOs were based on referee intervention, and a few of Dirrell's have been on cuts.  Dirrell has shown just a hair more one-punch power than Ward, but not enough more to make a real substantive difference.  Ward - B-, Dirrell - B-, Advantage: Push

A lot more comes after the jump.

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In last night's fight, Larry Merchant mentioned that he thinks that Cristobal (not Chris anymore - make up yo damn mind fool!) Arreola may be there to help revitalize the heavyweight division.  In my honest opinion, to truly revitalize any division, you need to have a wave of new talent, not just a trickle.  Take the middleweight division for example.  Sure, Kelly Pavlik is a borderline star at this point, but because there aren't many worthy opponents, the division is completely dead.  On the other hand, with waves of prospects on the rise, junior welterweight and junior middleweight seem to be heating up, even though there hasn't been too much top flight talent in those weight classes in recent years.

Here, let's take a quick look at what the future holds for the heavyweight division.  Specifically, I'm focusing on guys who have yet to get a title shot.  Let's just say the future isn't so bright that I need shades.

Sasha Povetkin - At times, Povetkin looks promising, and he has the pedigree.  He's beaten some very good fighters, but the way that he did so doesn't convince me that he'll be able to hold his own against big punchers.  Eddie Chambers seemed to have him figured out for quite a while, but his reluctance to actually throw a power punch meant Povetkin was able to adjust and take over the fight.  Estrada was keeping up with Povetkin until Povetkin realized he could walk through Estrada's punches.  What will happen when he faces someone with a strong punch and a decent workrate?  Time will tell, but I can't say I'm optimistic.

Alexander Dimitrenko - He's big.  He has okay fundamentals.  But he's very slow, fairly chinny, and lacks power for someone his size.  His best win is against a completely shot Luan Krasniqi.  Timo Hoffman had him in trouble once or twice, though he did manage to knock down the normally durable Hoffman a couple times.  Due to his physical limitations, I suspect he's already arrived on his potential.  Because of some of the challenges he presents, he could be a contender for a while, earning multiple title shots, but I don't see him winning one without some Valuev-style intervention.

Eddie Chambers - I have to admit that Chambers has gotten further than I thought he would.  He's a heavyweight with little pop who seems hesitant to throw anything other than a jab.  His nickname is "fast", yet his hands aren't actually that quick.  When you consider that he's really a blown up cruiserweight, his handspeed would be pretty average for that division.  I think he's been exposed in his fights against Povetkin and Peter.  Povetkin proved that if you wait him out, you can walk through his punches and hurt him.  Peter proved that you can even play his own game and hang with him as long as you're willing to throw the bigger punchers.  He might hang around the scene for a while, but without a massive overhaul of his style, he's never going to win a belt.

David Haye - I won't dwell too much on Haye here, because I'm sure you'll see a lot on him leading up to his fight with Wladimir, and K2's three fight option pretty much guarantees that he'll be in the spotlight for a while.  He's young and he's exciting, but as mentioned before, he has some major flaws, such as a loose guard and a weak chin.  Even if he turns out to be the real deal, is there a dancing partner out there who could help make a classic heavyweight fight?

Martin Rogan - The future is probably now for the 35 year old former Prizefighter champion.  While he's coming off some good victories, he's too old to become more than what he already is, which is a rugged, entertaining, powerful, hard-nosed slugger who's willing to duke it out with anyone the old-fashioned way.  While I doubt he'd win, I really hope he gets a title shot before he starts to fade, as he's pretty much earned it.

Cristobal Arreola - Last night's win doesn't prove too much to me.  He showed some improvement, moving his head more than he has since the Wills fight, showing he finally knows how to clinch, and sitting on his punches and picking his shots rather than throwing wildly, but McCline was obviously just there to cash a paycheck, and even a motivated McCline isn't a top 20 heavyweight.  I realize HBIO is pushing for a Klitschko fight, but what he really needs to do is keep improving for a few more fights, and then maybe he can take on the top dogs.  

Denis Boytsov - Boytsov is another smallish heavyweight, and while he's been moved along slowly, he actually excites me a bit more than Povetkin.  He has a lot to work on still, and his height will always be a physical limitation, but he moves well, he has good power in both fists, and he's steadily shown improvement over the past couple years.  One thing that concerns me is that like many of his European brethren, he seems to be content to do just enough to win rounds.  Eventually, that may come to bite him if he ever ends up fighting an opponent off his home turf.  Still, he's about as good of an inside fighter as there is in the heavyweight division at the moment, and if he can improve his ability to get inside on taller fighters, as well as his stamina, he could be going places.  If you're interested, a few of his fights are up on Youtube, here, here and here.

Francisco Pianeta - The tall southpaw has fought some good competition, but just doesn't seem to have any fire in his belly whatsoever.  Even before his bout with Albert Sosnowski, he said his plan was to try to steal away the last few rounds.  Well guess what?  The limited Sosnowski outworked the heck out of him, and Pianeta was gifted a draw.  Until he learns to use is height and shows a little bit of desire to improve and try to win rather than try not to lose, then he's not someone to watch closely from an international perspective.  Right now, his ceiling is possibly winning a European title or two.

Kevin Johnson - Yawn.  Basically, Eddie Chambers, but slightly more likely to throw a second punch after his jab.  He's turning 30 in a few months and has yet to fight a legitimate opponent.  At some point soon, we'll have to just stop taking him seriously unless he's willing to take on a tougher challenge.

Odlanier Solis - Solis is really disappointing me.  An Olympic gold medalist, he escaped from Cuba and decided to exercise his new found freedom by going on a steady diet of wienerschnitzel, sauerbraten and pilsner.  He seems to have actually regressed since his early fights, when he looked like he might become a force to be reckoned with.  Instead, he's another fatty who doesn't take his job seriously.  Some guys thrive under the rigid Cuban athletics system and then stagnate as soon as they leave because they just don't have the discipline to do well without that much structure.  We've seen it many times before with Cuban athletes who have defected, and Solis seems to be another one.  If he starts to take training seriously again, he could be a force, as he has more skill than any other fighter on this list, but these days he just looks sluggish and lethargic, and his beer keg is really affecting his quickness and reflexes.

Mike Perez - On the other hand, here's another Cuban who defected who seems to be thriving outside of Cuba.  While he was an amateur champ, he wasn't as heralded as Solis as he never fought in the Olympics.  He's a lot younger than Solis though, and he seems to not only have heart and desire, but a sort of attitude like he's a man on a mission to become the biggest badass on the planet.  He has a lot of things going his way - he's a southpaw, he has good speed, he has good power and he has good fundamentals.  As drawbacks, he's not big, and he's fighting with a small promoter in Ireland, so it might be tough to find him suitable opposition as he moves up the ladder.  He's taking a big step up later in the month, fighting Javier Mora, but I suspect he'll keep doing what he's been doing so far, which is actually trying to dominate his opponents as opposed to trying not to lose.

Bowie Tupou - Gary Shaw made a lot of noise about the young Tongan when he first signed him several years ago, but he has yet to show too much of him.  Last I saw, he still looked pretty rudimentary.  While he looks like he should be a good fighter, he's flat footed and a little more ponderous than he looks like he should be.  He is training with Jeff Mayweather, and while he's the lesser of the three training brothers, he's still a perfectly respectable trainer to teach Tupou better fundamentals.  Tupou has a fight with the always-tough Danny Batchelder coming up, and that might prove a lot about where Tupou really is.  While Batchelder has lost 5 of his last 6, he arguably beat James Toney, he went the distance against Brian Minto and Matt Godfrey, and he gave Dimitrenko a few tough rounds.

Travis Kaufman - Things aren't going too well when some people are pinning their hopes on an accused child rapist who calls himself the "Great White Hope."  While he stays in shape and has some pop and some quickness, his peak is probably as a Monte Barrett type.  If he's taking the boxing thing seriously now, it would be nice to see him step up in class a bit to prove me wrong.

Tyson Fury - There's some potential there, but he's a lot further away than his camp makes him out to be.  Right now, he's most famous for talking trash, having a cool name and punching himself so hard that he made spit fly out of his mouth.  Maybe he can make us forget about that one if starts looking like the real deal.  Still, he has more potential than almost anyone on the list based on his physical tools.  He may not be better than George Foreman, like his dad says, but he's certainly someone to keep watching, and that hope is all we can ask for at the moment.

David Price - I posted some video of this newly minted pro a few days ago.  He's also tall, and he beat Fury in the amateurs, but I'm not sure he has the best style for the pros.  The way he fights, he better have a good chin and good power, or be better adjust the way he fights.  He's the first major prospect that David Haye is promoting, so I have no idea how he's being handled, but if he's moved too quickly or doesn't get a quality trainer, he could be in trouble.

Tor Hamer - I've been touting this guy as the future of the American heavyweight for a while now.  So he finally fights on nationally televised TV, and of course he looked less than impressive, at least in certain regards.  That fight ticked down my estimates on his knockout power and his stamina a bit, but I still like the way he moves.  He has that Cus D'Amato style body and foot movement that you don't see in heavyweights all that often these days.  For those who haven't read it before, here's a good piece from the Village Voice on Hamer.  While the piece might be a bit too optimistic, Lou DiBella is a smart promoter, and Hamer still could go far if he fixes some of his defensive holes and improves his stamina.  He's a very intelligent guy, so I see no reason why he can't do that.

Rich Power - Here's my deep deep sleeper.  At 29 years old, he probably won't amount to much, but he has some solid fundamentals, a crowd-pleasing style, and a marketable look.  I haven't seen him fight anyone other than toughmen, so he could completely flame the first time he faces a slick boxer, and there are a million other problems he might encounter as someone who wasn't a hyped up amateur (i.e., the need to make actual money by working a real job and lack of a big money promoter behind him).  I'll just throw the name out there though.  He's a big guy with a solid build and powerful punches who seems to understand a lot of fundamentals, which is more than I can say than a lot of the hopes we're pining on out there.

In summation, there might be a few up-and-comers to watch out for, but I wouldn't hold my breath about the division being 'revitalized' any time soon.

I'm hoping to make a regular feature of this site where I analyze certain boxing prospects, and maybe compare and contrast some up and coming guys in various weight classes.  Unlike most major sports, there's no set system of prospect analysis in boxing.  In baseball, every scout looks at the 5 tools on a 20-80 scouting scale. In football, there are hundreds of sites anayzing high school and college athletes who might become pros someday.  In boxing, you see a fighter and you just get excited.  What I'd like to attempt to do is break down up-and-coming fighters, so we know what their current and future strengths and weaknesses might be.  I think there are three important factors here:

1. Tools - These are the physical gifts that the boxer is born with, the things you can't teach. 
   
2. Skills - These are the things a fighter is able to learn with training, items they can generally improve upon over time.
3. Attributes - These are somewhere in between tools and skills - not necessarily physical, but things that come within the boxer's personality.

Tools

Handspeed - Good handspeed can be very important.  If you have it, your combinations look flashier and are more likely to impress the judges.  Perhaps more importantly, if your handspeed is better than your opponent's, you'll beat your opponent to the punch

Chin -Just ask Amir Khan what it means if you have shaky whiskers.  A fighter with a bad chin is a lot more likely to get knocked down or out, and thus lose.  There are ways to compensate for it, as Wlad Klitschko and Tommy Hearns discovered, but the lack of a chin is probably one of the top reasons seemingly good prospects end up flaming out, just after failure to put the work in.

Reflexes -Quick reflexes can help both sides of a boxers game.  If they're able to move quickly, it makes it easier to time a flaw in the opponent, or to react and counter if there's an opening.  It also makes it easier for a fighter to pick off or

Power - By power, I mean one punch concussive power.  Accumulative power is good, but you can get there by combining their power and their workrate.  One punch power means you're always in the fight, because if you can just land that one punch, you can still win it.

Size - They say you can't teach size, which generally is true, but this one's a bit tricky in boxing.  As a guy is moving up the ranks, a lot of the time he'll fight at a higher weight class than where he'll end up.  A guy will have better size if, after they're rehydrated, they have the physical and reach advantages in the ring.

Hand - Southpaws have a small inherent advantage, just because most fighters aren't used to fighting southpaws, and because it's difficult to find good, skilled sparring partners who are southpaws.

Skills and attributes come after the jump.

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