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Alfonso Gomez and his chance against Miguel Cotto

Alfonso Gomez is a good guy.

He's the only "Contender" fighter to find post-show success on any real scale (I don't count Steve Forbes since he was a world champion before the show), he comes to every fight looking to actually mix it up, and he's got heart for days.

Tough kid. OK fighter. Has no business in the ring with Miguel Cotto -- sorry, Gomez fans.

Alfonso told El Nuevo Dia that he's 100% sure he'll beat Cotto on April 12. I don't care that he said that. After all, what else is he supposed to say? "Nah, I just want the payday. I'm gonna get smoked."

And I have no doubt that he'll try. Alfonso won't show up looking to last 12 rounds with Cotto and nothing more. He'll come to fight. Which is exactly what will get him knocked out.

Gomez is one of those guys that loves to feed off of his underdog status. He's like every 11-5 football team that makes the playoffs, and goes on and on about how "No one thinks we can do this!"

Like those teams, Gomez isn't the Bad News Bears. He's a quality fighter. But, really, does anyone think he has a shot against Cotto?

No one thinks he can do this. And there are plenty of reasons why.

  • His biggest win came over Arturo Gatti last July, retiring the Jersey hero with a dominant outslugging. He was faster, stronger, and younger than Gatti -- but what did it really prove about Gomez? All that fight really showed us was that Gatti was done, and that was something you could have concluded a year previous, when Carlos Baldomir destroyed Gatti.
  • The next time out, Gomez beat veteran Ben Tackie via unanimous decision -- scores were 98-92, 98-92 and 97-93. I scored it 95-95. I don't think it's a shame that Gomez won, since someone had to and it was an even fight, but it made me wonder why anyone was seeing Alfonso Gomez as a legit welterweight contender.
  • Same idea, really: When Gomez was rumored to fight Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr., Dan Rafael and several others that have good reputations went no further than saying things like, "Gomez would beat him easily." Where was this coming from? Chavez has twice the natural ability and power, and is a legit 147-pounder. In all reality, Gomez should probably be fighting at 140. I would have picked Chavez to knock Gomez out without a whole lot of trouble.
  • Miguel Cotto is a world-class fighter that excels when he has an opponent that will stand and fight with him. Gomez is tailor made for Cotto.

I could name a lot of things I see happening before Gomez beating Cotto. Rudy Giuliani as President. Sara Bareilles releasing a single that isn't about love. Never Back Down not being an embarrassing piece of garbage.

Gomez is not going to beat Cotto. He doesn't have a puncher's chance, doesn't have a boxer's chance, doesn't have anything in his favor. Gomez over Cotto would be one of the all-time great upsets. Everything Gomez does, Cotto does better.

Gomez likes to be counted out, he says. He should love the next few weeks.

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