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Money Talks: Odds on tonight's fights

Scott Christ is the managing editor of Bad Left Hook and has been covering boxing for SB Nation since 2006.

Katie-holmes-mad-money_medium All odds are taken from the book over at Bodog.

I'm not generally a betting man. For one thing, I don't have the dispensable money. For another thing, every time I start to sort of hint that maybe I'd like to put a little bit down on this fight or that, I get told that it's a bad idea. You know how it goes. My trips to the Four Winds Casino in New Buffalo, Mich., have taught people that I'm bad with money. I try to argue that slot machines and rigged card games tended to by dealers and overseers who are nothing but absolute criminals and schysters are not the same as betting on fights. I don't run a cheating, lying, bunch of a-holes at the Four Winds Casino blog. Stupid motherfu--


Anyway, I do follow the odds, mostly to see what the books are thinking, what kind of bets the gamblin' men and women of the world are throwing down, and to point out to people the kind of money I COULD have made.

For those unfamiliar with how the game works, it's pretty simple. If, for example, a fighter is -300, that means you have to bet $300 for every $100 you want to win. A $30 bet would net you $10 if that fighter won. If a fighter was +300, that means you bet $100 for every $300 you want to win on the underdog. And it goes on like that.

Sergio Martinez -1500
Archak TerMeliksetian +800

Given how untested Martinez is, this is a sucker's bet. Actually it's a sucker's bet either way. TerMeliksetian will probably do his duty and lose a wide decision. But if he does win, someone might make some nice bank off of Archak TerMeliksetian.

Celestino Caballero -500
Lorenzo Parra +300

As good a flyweight as Parra was at one point, I can't see him winning this fight under any circumstances. How's he going to work against someone with such a gross reach advantage?

Daniel Ponce de Leon -175
Juan Manuel Lopez +145

Close fight on paper, close fight in the books. Ponce de Leon's name recognition and experience and status as defending titlist makes him the betting favorite. If I was betting on just one of tonight's bouts, it'd be this one. I'd put a few Franklins down on Lopez, and pray that he doesn't get knocked out early.

Vernon Forrest -500
Sergio Mora +300

I think most journalists or experts or insiders or even dillweeds like me would consider Mora a bigger underdog than +300. Never discount the effect of celebrity and a 0-loss record. The line tempts you to consider Mora winning. He won't.

Paul Williams -155
Carlos Quintana +125

Despite losing to Quintana the first time, Williams on fight day is the favorite. Both sides of this bet are dirty, nasty temptresses. Alluring, yes, but really the type of fight I'd stay away from.

Kelly Pavlik -2000
Gary Lockett +1000

This line represents a giant, "F--- you!" to anyone that thinks they'll win easy money, obviously. Pavlik at -2000 is just a massive favorite. Lockett at +1000 is a gargantuan underdog. Even though everyone and their dog thinks Pavlik will lay waste to Lockett, you have to have some stones to lay down any money on the dude with the return so minimal. A Lockett upset would not only be shocking and shake the world of boxing, but it would fill some high-roller's pocket.

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