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Money Talks: Odds on this weekend's fights

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Two_for_the_money_medium Gotta love that Pacino-McConaughey team, huh? Alright, alright, alright. Hoo-ah! Not a great movie. Don't go out of your way. Shocking, I know.

All lines are taken from Bodog, and this is not meant to encourage gambling. That's my disclaimer, because I don't want to hear about it if you lose your Tercel.

Joel Casamayor (Ring Lightweight Champion) v. Juan Manuel Marquez -- HBO PPV

Marquez -325, Casamayor +250

This is one of those fights I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. The 37-year old Casamayor is inconsistent but undeniably skilled, and the 35-year old Marquez is moving up to 135 pounds for the first time. I'm having a hell of a time even picking a winner without putting money on it -- I wouldn't bet on this fight with your money. (OK, yes I would.)

Betting 325 bones on Juan Manuel to win back 100 seems silly to me, because even if he maintains his power, stamina, and skill in another division's jump, Casamayor is a hell of a great fighter on his best nights. He fought off the determined, powerful, younger Michael Katsidis in March in an epic brawl, and Marquez hasn't been seen since that same month, when he lost a hotly-disputed decision to pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao.

Now, pound-for-pound, I'll take Marquez over Casamayor any day. But Joel is a guy some started counting out five years ago. He's not only hung on, but here he is main eventing a pay-per-view event at the MGM Grand. Both fighters are due to hit the wall sometime, I think, and the chance that it could come for either man this weekend is a really big risk.

 

Sergio Mora (WBC Junior Middleweight Titleholder) v. Vernon Forrest [Rematch] -- HBO PPV

Mora -105, Forrest -125

A fight where the Bodog book refuses to put up an underdog. Mora upset Forrest in June to capture his title, and now "The Viper" is looking for revenge, this time sans the threats of Mora leaving on a stretcher. Good idea.

The 27-year old Mora has 10 years of youth on his side against Forrest, who came out flat, fatigued fairly easily, and looked like he didn't have any breath left by the 10th round of their first encounter. This time, Vernon is saying he's had a better camp, but it's not like he'd be spreading word that he isn't.

Mora has technical ability, but his lack of KO power is always going to be a concern. Is he good enough to beat a more well-rounded, but older, fighter once again? Is Vernon really capable of going 12 rounds with a guy as shifty and elusive and awkard as Sergio? That's the bet, man.

 

Nate Campbell (WBA/IBF/WBO Lightweight Titleholder) v. Joan Guzman -- Showtime

Guzman -215, Campbell +175

And another one that's too tough for me to mess with. Hey, maybe I'm gutless, or maybe I'm stingy, or maybe I'm poor, or maybe these fights are all just tough to call. Guzman's natural abilities are awesome, but Campbell's toughness, resiliency and power can't be overlooked.

Guzman hasn't fought in ten months, since he dominated (crowd-pleasing or not) Humberto Soto over 12 rounds. This is Guzman's step up to lightweight, as he found no one at 130 willing to fight. Guzman and Campbell have had a rather nasty back-and-forth leading up to this fight, and given Campbell's rugged, aggressive nature, he might come out for blood. Guzman, no matter what he says, probably isn't wired that way.

This is a marvelous option for those uninterested in paying $44.99 for the pay-per-view card this weekend, and another toss-up money fight.

Got any favorites? Betting on anything this weekend?