As always, odds are taken from the book at Bodog.
Also: I wanted to put up an older Mosley fight in preparation for Margarito, but I couldn't think of one that was even sort of comparable, especially one recent enough that we'd be seeing the Shane Mosley of today as opposed to the Mosley of yesteryear.
It then occured to me, very plainly, that Shane has never fought or beaten a guy who is like Margarito that's as good as Margarito.
Oscar de la Hoya was tall like Margarito, but they're not similar fighters. Miguel Cotto is rugged like Margarito, but doesn't have the size. Fernando Vargas and Ricardo Mayorga aren't really in the discussion. Luis Collazo is a tricky defensive stylist. There's just no one in the last few years of Shane's career that stacks up as the challenge that Margarito is. It's a tough, tough fight for Shane.
Now, the odds:
Shane Mosley at +275 is the type of bet that I think I'd love if I was a man with a lot of disposable money, because while Shane's got a real task on his hands with Margarito, it's overstating it to say that Antonio Margarito is the best fighter Shane's ever faced. The last time we saw Shane at 147 pounds, he gave Miguel Cotto all he could handle. That was 14 months ago. And while Margarito not being "the best" Shane's ever fought doesn't mean Margarito isn't one of them or doesn't present unique obstacles, it means a little something.
Mosley at this age might not be the best fighter Antonio's ever faced, either. Cotto was still unbeaten, Williams was unbeaten, Clottey was a really underrated guy at the time (and is still underrated).
My poinit is really more that Antonio Margarito: Machine Man is beatable. He's slow, he doesn't have one-punch power, his footwork isn't very good. His strengths are great, but he has weaknesses. And Mosley might be the right guy to exploit them.
Still, Margarito at -400 looks like a good bet. It's been a while since Shane has beaten an elite fighter, the last one probably being Oscar in 2003.