Looks like the speculation is over. Rick Reeno of BoxingScene.com reports that it will be fringe contender Brian Minto who will face Cristobal Arreola on December 5 in Atlantic City. HBO will televise the fight as a co-feature. The show will be main evented by Paul Williams and Sergio Martinez.
Minto (34-2, 21 KO) is a 34-year-old pug whose greatest win probably came in 2006, when he quickly ended Axel Schulz's comeback attempt in Germany. He's beaten several knockaround guys like Jeremy Bates, Vinny Maddalone, Danny Batchelder, Billy Zumbrun and Chad Van Sickle, but has never beaten anyone near Arreola's level. Minto's two losses have come against Tony Tubbs (SD-10, 2004) and Luan Krasniqi (UD-12, 2007).
Since I don't want to say he has no shot, I'll jut say he has very little chance at upsetting Arreola. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, he's quite small compared to Arreola (6'4", 77"), doesn't have big power, isn't fast, isn't terribly skilled. He's a tough guy and he always comes to fight, but I see him getting blown out.
On paper, this seems like a big guy version of what we saw with Alfredo Angulo and Harry Joe Yorgey this past week. Tough, strong, promising younger fighter against a guy in his 30s with a decent looking record and not much else going for him. If Minto makes this an exciting fight, don't be surprised. But also don't be surprised if that excitement doesn't last very long.