Saturday night's HBO double-header has flown a bit under the radar after a boxing-less month from the network and all of the boxing world's attention quickly shifting to the November 14 fight between Miguel Cotto and Manny Pacquiao, but the Chad Dawson-Glen Johnson rematch in Hartford is shaping up to be a good one. Their first bout was highly competitive and very entertaining, with the young Dawson meeting the first strong resistance of his career. Many still feel Johnson deserved the W that night, and I personally scored it a draw.
Below, the editors at CompuBox take a look at this well-deserved and very meaningful rematch.
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Before Chad Dawson fought the rematch with Antonio Tarver, everyone outside of Tarver’s team wanted Glen Johnson to be standing in the other corner. All will get their wish Saturday when they will finally settle their differences. Dawson is a 3 ½-to-1 favorite to repeat his April 2008 win but Johnson is just as strong a favorite to make him work for it. Factors that may sway the result include:
Genetic Twister: Dawson, who boxes as a southpaw, is a natural right-hander while the right-handed Johnson signs autographs with his left. Dawson's right jab may carry extra pop but if anyone knows how to fight lefties it is the "Road Warrior," who is fighting his ninth southpaw in his last 12 fights.
Late-Round Strength: Johnson has plenty while Dawson has less of it. The main source of controversy in Dawson-Johnson I was the challenger's surge in rounds 10-12. After Dawson seemingly established control over the first nine, Johnson closed fast with advantages of 89-55 overall and 74-42 in power connects. Though fights are scored round-by-round, finishing kicks are remembered more strongly.
This is nothing new for either man. In Johnson's last outing against Daniel Judah, he out-landed his rival 68-44 overall and 52-34 in power connects in the final two rounds while Dawson nearly let several fights slip away. Dawson dominated Tomasz Adamek over the first nine only to be dropped in the 10th. In the 11th and 12th Adamek reached double-digits connects for the only time in the fight and in the 11th his 24-17 edge in total connects was his first since round one. In the last two rounds of the first Tarver fight, the "Magic Man" had 56-36 and 50-27 edges in total and power connects respectively. That trend continued - sort of - in the Tarver rematch. While most observers agreed that Tarver won the final two rounds, the numbers painted a different story. Dawson actually out-landed Tarver 39-33 overall and 29-23 in power shots. Will Johnson's pressure again exploit that flaw?
The Big Stick: To counteract Johnson's volume Dawson must command distance with his jab. Despite averaging 41 jabs per round and throwing 146 more, Dawson was outdone 87-75 in jab connects. That, in turn, enabled Johnson to sweep the other two categories - 292-269 in total connects and 205-194 in landed power punches. Dawson must improve upon his 15 percent connect rate while also striking Johnson with enough force to make him think twice about coming in.
Despite his aggressive approach, Johnson is a busy jabber who also defends it well. Besides out-landing Dawson, he did even better against Judah as he out-jabbed him 62-24 while tasting just eight percent of Judah's 297 jabs.
Prediction: At 27, Dawson is 18 months more savvy while Johnson, who will turn 41 (a Johnson win would make him the oldest man to win a light heavyweight championship) day after New Year's, is still good enough to trouble all but the very best. Luckily for "Bad Chad," his skill set and superior combination punching will pave the way to a more convincing decision win.
Full CompuBox Stats From Dawson-Johnson 1 Available After the Jump
Total Punches Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Dawson | 28/110 | 33/109 | 26/85 | 24/76 | 19/89 | 23/74 | 23/78 | 24/73 | 14/64 | 18/72 | 23/73 | 14/45 |
| 25% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 21% | 31% | 29% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 32% | 31% | |
| Johnson | 20/52 | 24/65 | 35/78 | 24/75 | 31/74 | 19/75 | 14/36 | 18/78 | 18/79 | 28/71 | 30/71 | 31/75 |
| 38% | 37% | 45% | 32% | 42% | 25% | 39% | 23% | 23% | 39% | 42% | 41% |
Jabs Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Dawson | 9/62 | 3/49 | 7/38 | 7/43 | 8/52 | 10/52 | 6/45 | 7/29 | 5/34 | 4/30 | 5/33 | 4/22 |
| 15% | 6% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 13% | 24% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 18% | |
| Johnson | 14/34 | 9/28 | 8/31 | 12/43 | 10/26 | 11/43 | 0/9 | 5/34 | 3/36 | 2/14 | 5/16 | 8/29 |
| 41% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 38% | 26% | 0% | 15% | 8% | 14% | 31% | 28% |
Power Punches Landed / Thrown
|
Round |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Dawson | 19/48 | 30/60 | 19/47 | 17/33 | 11/37 | 13/22 | 17/33 | 17/44 | 9/30 | 14/42 | 18/40 | 10/23 |
| 40% | 50% | 40% | 52% | 30% | 59% | 52% | 39% | 30% | 33% | 45% | 43% | |
| Johnson | 6/18 | 15/37 | 27/47 | 12/32 | 21/48 | 8/32 | 14/27 | 13/44 | 15/43 | 26/57 | 25/55 | 23/46 |
| 33% | 41% | 57% | 38% | 44% | 25% | 52% | 30% | 35% | 46% | 45% | 50% |
Final PunchStat Report
|
|
Total Punches | Jabs | Power Punches |
| Dawson | 269 / 948 | 75 / 489 | 194 / 459 |
| 28% | 15% | 42% | |
| Johnson | 292 / 829 | 87 / 343 | 205 / 486 |
| 35% | 25% | 42% |