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Guess the Buys for Hatton-Pacquiao

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You don't win anything, I'm just curious how well everyone thinks this will do on American PPV. In England it will do a million plus, I'm certain of that (Hatton against Mayweather did 1.4 million there and 910,000 in the States).

For a refresher, here are some notable recent boxing PPVs, with rough estimates of how many buys they did:

* This is the all-time PPV record ... ** This is the all-time PPV record for fighters of this size as headliners
Date Fight Buys
2007-05-05 de la Hoya-Mayweather 2.4M*
2007-12-08 Mayweather-Hatton 910K
2008-01-19 Jones-Trinidad 500K
2008-02-16 Pavlik-Taylor II 250K
2008-03-15 Marquez-Pacquiao II 400K**
2008-06-28 Diaz-Pacquiao 200K
2008-07-26 Cotto-Margarito 450K
2008-09-13 Marquez-Casamayor 100K
2008-10-18 Pavlik-Hopkins 195K
2008-11-08 Calzaghe-Jones 225K
2008-12-06 de la Hoya-Pacquiao 1.25M

There are several factors at work here, as well:

  1. The economy is still not good. Promoters tried to blame the weak numbers for Pavlik-Hopkins and Calzaghe-Jones on the economy, but I truly feel that you have to also consider that Pavlik has not sold on PPV yet, Hopkins has never been a superstar despite having all the skills to be one (except most of his fights aren't exciting), and Calzaghe-Jones was a hideous matchup that everyone overestimated as far as public interest went. Calzaghe was never a star in the States, either; his HBO fights with Hopkins and Kessler did rotten ratings.
  2. Two of Pacquiao's last three fights have been HUGE success. The rematch with Marquez doing "only" 400,000 buys seems disappointing until you remember no fighters of their size or lower headlining a PPV has ever done so well in America.
  3. Promotion has been excellent for this fight, including what is in my view the strongest "24/7" series to date. But "24/7" is sold to one-and-half types of people, really: Boxing fans that were already going to order (or not order), and those that subscribe to HBO. Phenomenal show, but I question how much it really means. It did zilch for Calzaghe-Jones. The other fights for which it has been used -- like this one -- were guaranteed sellers (Oscar-Floyd, Floyd-Ricky, Oscar-Manny).
  4. Both fighters have done mammoth buys (against Floyd and Oscar), but in neither instance were they the "A" side.

So take it all in: The depressed economy, the fact that neither man has ever single-handedly sold a massive show (not that they're doing this one single-handed, either), and the great promotion.

Where do you see this one ending up when the tallies are in?

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